New York Yankees midseason betting report

We're halfway through the 2015 Major League Baseball season, which means wins have been banked, the St. Louis Cardinals are dusting off the playoff-ticket printing press and the Philadelphia Phillies have confirmed tee times for the first week in October.

But most importantly for our purposes, spring training projections can be evaluated because history tells us at least 70 percent of October's participants have been identified. MLB's 10-team postseason is only four years old, but from 2012 to 2014, a minimum of seven of the 10 teams slotted for the playoffs at the All-Star break each year have made it to the postseason. Overall, 22 of the 30 teams that made the playoffs would have also made the playoffs if the season ended at that year's All-Star break.

Of course, attempting to identify the other teams is the fun part of handicapping. So let's dig into the first half of the 2015 season, compare results with expectations and possibly find some over- and undervalued teams for the next three months.

Note: Records are reflective of all games played through Sunday.
All statistics are through each team's 81st game.

Season-to-date pricing adds the implied win probability from the money line of each team's first 81 games and converts it to 162 games. For instance, a team that was minus-150 (60 percent win probability) in each of its first 81 games would be valued as a 97.2 (60 percent x 162) win team.

New York Yankees

Vegas projection: 82 wins
My projection: 79 wins
Current record/pace: 48-40 (88-win pace)
Season-to-date pricing: 84.4 wins

What has gone right: A large part of my reasoning for calling for an under-.500 Yankees finish wasn't that they had a lineup and rotation with last-place talent, it was that given their age and injury history, you couldn't project them to play anywhere close to 150 games. It was clear that to outscore their opponents -- a requirement to realistically expect to finish over .500 -- the Yankees were going to need meaningful full-season production from two of the trio of Alex Rodriguez, Mark Teixeira and Carlos Beltran. Well, in 82 games (through Saturday), Rodriguez and Teixeira combined for 40 home runs, 112 RBIs and an OPS just less than .900. I'd say that qualifies as "meaningful." That's why the Yankees are in first place, and why it's an earned position. Still, the same caveat applies: Should injury, or wear and tear, halt or erode that production over the rest of the season, the Yankees are a threat to be outscored over any period of time.

What has gone wrong: Even if healthy, the age of the Yankees' lineup has detrimental effects elsewhere on the field. New York trots out the second-worst fielding lineup in the American League. The Yankees' pitching staff mitigates that weakness as much as possible by striking out 22 percent of the batters it faces, but it's still unquestionably the worst defense in the division. Let's dive into the numbers a bit to understand why grasping defensive prowess is so important in handicapping the future.

Both the Yankees' and Rays' pitching staffs struck out 22.6 percent of the batters they faced through 81 games. The Yanks gave up two more home runs, but walked/hit 12 fewer batters. For all intents and purposes, over 3,000 batters faced, they were exactly the same pitching staffs. So why was there a 60-run difference in runs allowed between two identical pitching staffs, playing against exactly the same opponents? Because the Yankees gave up 103 more hits/runners-on-error than the Rays did. I won't disagree with you that the Yankees have a better offense than the Rays, but I'll challenge that statement with this: Are they 120 runs better over an entire season?

Second-half outlook: If healthy, New York is a real threat to win the AL East. Like an Hermes scarf, however, the Yankees will always be subject to a premium markup, and that's evident in their daily pricing. You could accurately predict the Yankees will win the division, back them on a daily basis and still not make any money by the end of the season because of that little extra premium you have to pay. If anyone's ever seen my wardrobe, it won't surprise you to know I'm more inclined to buy a tie at Men's Wearhouse than Hermes.