We're halfway through the 2015 Major League Baseball season, which means wins have been banked, the St. Louis Cardinals are dusting off the playoff-ticket printing press and the Philadelphia Phillies have confirmed tee times for the first week in October.
But most importantly for our purposes, spring training projections can be evaluated because history tells us at least 70 percent of October's participants have been identified. MLB's 10-team postseason is only four years old, but from 2012 to 2014, a minimum of seven of the 10 teams slotted for the playoffs at the All-Star break each year have made it to the postseason. Overall, 22 of the 30 teams that made the playoffs would have also made the playoffs if the season ended at that year's All-Star break.
Of course, attempting to identify the other teams is the fun part of handicapping. So let's dig into the first half of the 2015 season, compare results with expectations and possibly find some over- and under-valued teams for the next three months.
Note: Records are reflective of all games played through Sunday.
All statistics are through each team's 81st game.
Season-to-date pricing adds the implied win probability from the money line of each team's first 81 games and converts it to 162 games. For instance, a team that was minus-150 (60 percent win probability) in each of its first 81 games would be valued as a 97.2 (60 percent x 162) win team.
Chicago White Sox
Vegas projection: 82.5 wins
My projection: 76 wins
Current record/pace: 41-45 (78-win pace)
Season-to-date pricing: 81.0 wins
What has gone right: In some ways the White Sox are a lot like the Cleveland Indians, although I suspect not as many people realize they have the same strengths.
The White Sox lineup, as detailed in their season preview, had less above-average players than any other team in baseball last season, and it's only gotten worse this year -- potentially much worse by the time the season ends. However, last year's Rookie of the Year, Jose Abreu, is the one true asset on offense, even if his production has dropped compared to his stellar 2014 campaign.
What has gone wrong: Just as in Cleveland, strong starting pitching has gotten sabotaged by defense, only here the modifier is "horrendous" instead of "below-average." I've gone over adjusted defensive efficiency but let me demonstrate how much a bad defense can negate the advantage of a superior pitching staff. No one thinks the Royals starting rotation is better than the White Sox, yet it doesn't surprise me that Chris Young has a lower ERA than Samardzija.
Through the first 81 games of their respective schedules, Chicago's pitchers faced 102 more batters than Kansas City's did, despite striking out 132 more batters and even walking eight fewer. The reason? Batted balls are falling for hits at a rapid rate. Here's the kicker: If the Royals let the next 102 batters they face all get hits in the field of play, they still will have allowed 18 fewer batters to reach base via hit or error than the White Sox. That one big reason the White Sox -- and to slightly lesser degrees the Tigers and Indians -- are long shots to catch the Royals.
Second-half outlook: The White Sox's mini-hot streak prior to the All-Star break looks like it might provide savvy bettors with a chance to cash in on some value. Priced as a .500 team the first half of the season, the White Sox have three elements -- offense, defense and relief pitching -- that are well below the level needed to achieve .500 baseball. Yes the rotation is very good, but that's why the lines are favorable to fade. The White Sox aren't a good baseball team, and I'll happily take the other side of their games for the rest of the season.