We're halfway through the 2015 Major League Baseball season, which means wins have been banked, the St. Louis Cardinals are dusting off the playoff-ticket printing press and the Philadelphia Phillies have confirmed tee times for the first week in October.
But most importantly for our purposes, spring training projections can be evaluated because history tells us at least 70 percent of October's participants have been identified. MLB's 10-team postseason is only four years old, but from 2012 to 2014, a minimum of seven of the 10 teams slotted for the playoffs at the All-Star break each year have made it to the postseason. Overall, 22 of the 30 teams that made the playoffs would have also made the playoffs if the season ended at that year's All-Star break.
Of course, attempting to identify the other teams is the fun part of handicapping. So let's dig into the first half of the 2015 season, compare results with expectations and possibly find some over- and undervalued teams for the next three months.
Note: Records are reflective of all games played through Sunday.
All statistics are through each team's 81st game.
Season-to-date pricing adds the implied win probability from the money line of each team's first 81 games and converts it to 162 games. For instance, a team that was minus-150 (60 percent win probability) in each of its first 81 games would be valued as a 97.2 (60 percent x 162) win team.
Kansas City Royals
Vegas projection: 81.5 wins
My projection: 82 wins
Current record/pace: 52-34 (97-win pace)
Season-to-date pricing: 83.9 wins
What has gone right: The Royals have backed up everything they did last year, and it should be silencing critics. When they finished playing their 81st game of the season, not only did the Royals have the best record in the American League through half the season (48-33) but they had the best record among American League teams over the past 162 games played (95-67).
Filling their one obvious need for improvement compared with the 2014 squad, the Royals successfully added the long ball to their offensive arsenal. After hitting just 95 home runs en route to winning the AL pennant (tied for the third-lowest total this millennium), Kansas City hit 60 through the first half of their 2015 schedule. While that's still bottom quartile-type power, it's a material uptick. And for a team that hits a lot of doubles (14th in MLB) and triples (sixth), it's enough to get them up to eighth in slugging.
Due to a low baseline, players in their prime years and offseason transactions designed to patch weaknesses, improved offensive production for Kansas City isn't a shock. However, even the most optimistic fan probably didn't think the Royals' undisputed area of strength last year -- bullpen production from the seventh-ninth innings -- could possibly improve.
The three-headed relief trio of Wade Davis, Kelvin Herrera and Greg Holland had a 1.28 ERA in 204 innings of work last year, so there was bound to be regression this year. Well, variance did catch up to Holland (whose ERA is up to 2.81 this year) but there was a hidden little secret that I discussed in this year's preview: Outside of the late-inning trio, the Royals' 2014 bullpen was actually awful, posting a ghastly 4.89 ERA. While getting similar production from their three bedrocks (1.54 ERA in 99 innings) this year, the entire bullpen has an ERA of just 2.11. To put that in perspective, Mariano Rivera had a lifetime ERA of 2.21.
What has gone wrong: While the offseason roster move that brought in Kendrys Morales (.890 OPS in '15) to replace Billy Butler (.702 OPS in '14) has worked as planned, the attempt to upgrade Nori Aoki's slap-hitting production failed miserably. Alex Rios (one home run in 165 plate appearances) has not only added nothing power-wise, he hast none of Aoki's on-base skills. With Alex Gordon now on the DL for an estimated two months, Rios is going to continue to get playing time and Kansas City needs him to show some improvement. At 34, he's on the wrong side of a steeply sloping aging curve, however.
While his absence doesn't affect the team's incredible bullpen, Gordon's injury is a potential blow to the Royals' second key strength: their defense. Second in the league in adjusted defensive efficiency, Kansas City has always relied on Gordon's glove and arm to anchor the defense. As I've mentioned many times, though, team defensive production is not a sum-of-the-UZR-parts, and the Royals' unit as a whole has been outstanding.
Second-half outlook: The Royals have offered some of the easiest money all year for bettors and I'm annoyed I didn't do a better job of identifying it in April. The preview noted the possibility for more power and the probability of an even better bullpen, and expectations were quite muted for a team that not only won the AL pennant but was dominant in doing so. The good news is that with Gordon out, pricing on the Royals may get even more favorable and I'll be looking to capitalize. In a division in which its rivals have gaping holes in their profiles, I see Kansas City as being the first American League team to wrap up its division.