ESPN Chalk's Joe Peta is sharing his season win total projections for every MLB team, including a reason for optimism and pessimism.
Plus, he recommends an over/under play, or a pass. This is the entry for the Arizona Diamondbacks.
Arizona Diamondbacks
Reason for optimism: The nucleus for sustained success two or three seasons out (surrounding MVP candidate Paul Goldschmidt) will take the field this year.
Reason for pessimism: The front office is out to prove its opposition to analytics is justified.
A couple of ex-athletes, Charles Barkley and Dave Stewart, made headlines this past winter with anti-analytics comments. Barkley targeted a lot of his comments at Houston Rockets GM Daryl Morey, then broadly summed his thoughts as follows, "Analytics don't work at all. It's just some crap people who are really smart made up to try to get in the game."
Although it received much less attention, Stewart, the former Oakland A's pitcher, suggested to the Arizona Republic that then-free agent James Shields might sign with the Diamondbacks because, "He probably sees [Arizona] as a true baseball team versus some of the other teams out there geared more toward analytics."
While on the surface both quotes look like familiar screeds from former athletes against those who "never played the game," there's an important difference. Barkley is a commentator, whose job is to often proffer provocative statements. Stewart, on the other hand, is the general manager of the Diamondbacks and oversees the allocation of nearly $100 million in payroll.
Diamondbacks fans, you've been warned. Then again, how much worse could things possibly be this season compared to last?
Magic numbers can be a tricky thing to calculate, but it certainly felt like the Diamondbacks were eliminated from National League West contention before their plane left Australia last March, en route to the worst record in baseball by season's end. Maybe Arizona wasn't quite 98-losses bad, as indicated by its final record, but even after you adjust the D-backs' record for Pythag and cluster luck, they were still the worst team in the National League, albeit a 69-win team dressed in shoddy 64-win clothing.
Ranked by ERA, the Diamondbacks had the second-worst rotation in the National League and the third-worst bullpen, and it's hard to see how the rotation is going to improve this year. Take the overhaul, which sees Jeremy Hellickson taking the rotation spot vacated by the departed Wade Miley. It's not that Miley's production can't be replicated (4.34 ERA in 201 innings), it's that the combination of environment and skill set makes Hellickson just about the worst possible solution. Hellickson, owner of a below-average strikeout rate (17.3 percent career vs. 19.4 percent MLB average for starters in '14) and mildly above-average walk rate (7.8 percent vs. 7.1 percent), is an extreme fly ball pitcher (41.4 percent vs. 34.5 percent) who has gotten 3.78 ERA results from 4.00-plus ERA talent thanks to working his entire career in Tampa behind a stellar defense and a home park that suppresses offense.
Other than Colorado, there is no worse place for a fly ball, low-strikeout pitcher to toil than Chase Field. I have no idea if Stewart was the architect of this acquisition, but it's a potential case of fire meeting lighter fluid, and it's what the real result is when teams ignore analytics. The bullpen, at least, has a chance to be a good bit better this season because the pen as a whole, and especially closer Addison Reed, had better peripherals than results.
On offense, the Diamondbacks had some obvious holes in the lineup, but they probably created another huge one with the plan to trade Miguel Montero and start Tuffy Gosewisch behind the plate -- and that doesn't even consider the fact Montero was a top 10-ranked pitch framer. Outside of first base, where the Diamondbacks have one of the most valuable offensive weapons in the league in Goldschmidt, Arizona got essentially replacement-level (zero WAR) production out of its other three corner positions. Mark Trumbo returns to the outfield, which is a problem even if he regains his hitting stroke, while rookies Jeff Lamb and Cuban import Yasmany Tomas represent the future in Arizona.
To exceed preseason expectations, or at the very least improve on last season's record, Arizona almost certainly has to get league-average production from some three-headed combination of Trumbo, Lamb, Tomas or new shortstop Chris Owings to complement Goldschmidt. The rotation looks so flawed, however, that a high-scoring offense is going to be necessary to stay competitive in a lot of games.
Arizona is miles behind at least the three teams in the National League West; the Diamondbacks' modest goal this season should be to finish ahead of the Rockies and win 70 games. Given the 57 games they have to play against the Dodgers, Giants and Padres, the current market of 72 games seems overly optimistic.
2015 projection: 69-93 (fifth, NL West)
Bet recommendation: Under