ESPN Chalk's Joe Peta is sharing his season win total projections for every MLB team, including a reason for optimism and pessimism. Plus, he recommends an over/under play, or a pass. This is the entry for the Colorado Rockies.
Colorado Rockies
Reason for optimism: The lineup is highest-scoring-in-the-league quality, even away from Coors, if everyone stays healthy.
Reason for pessimism: In the last six years, the Rockies have gotten one season of more than 150 games played from either Troy Tulowitzki or Carlos Gonzalez.
A team comprised completely of waiver-wire cast-offs and minor leaguers -- the conceptual replacement-level team -- would win roughly 50 games. Beyond theory, this makes empirical sense as well: Since any franchise could field a team using those parameters, no team should play below that level. Sure enough, since MLB went to a 162-game schedule in 1961, it's only happened two times (out of 1,416 team seasons) -- in 1962 (the immortal '62 Mets) and 2003 (Tigers). Therefore, since every team starts at 50 wins before you start assigning WAR values to individual players, the relevant question becomes, "How can a team like the Rockies only win 66 games in 2014?"
It follows that a team that only wins 66 games, in theory, has a roster that generates roughly 16 WAR. Turn to Baseball-Reference and last year the Rockies, winners of 66 games, had the following WAR contributions from these four players: Tulowitzki (5.5), Nolan Arenado (4.1), Corey Dickerson (3.4), Justin Morneau (3.2). Total: 16.2.
Is it possible that the rest of roster, which accounted for nearly 4,300 plate appearances, is nothing more than replacement level -- to say nothing of the entire pitching staff? The answer for Colorado's fans is, sadly, yes -- and those other players actually included above-average major leaguers like Drew Stubbs, Charlie Blackmon and Michael McKenry. So it's clear the Rockies had the equivalent of a lot of 2003 Tigers on their roster in 2014.
That should make the Rockies a candidate for a solid bounce-back year, though, and the lineup reflects that. All seven of the above players are back in 2014, but thanks to depth at catcher and in right field, where the perennial All-Star and Gold Glove winner Gonzalez returns after missing most of last season with a knee injury, Stubbs and McKenry will come off the bench. With only DJ LeMahieu at second base projected to be a below-average major leaguer, the Rockies lineup is extremely potent and the team should be a lock to win 81 games.
Two problems get in the way: Their stars often can't stay on the field and the pitching really is sub-replacement level bad. Think the staff's ERA of 4.86 (.60 worse than the second-worst team in the NL, which equates to nearly 100 runs over the course of a season) is solely a distorted product of pitching in Coors Field half the time? The Rockies' ERA on the road was also a major-league worst 4.65.
Unfortunately, there is almost nothing to indicate Colorado has improved the situation in 2015. The only new starter is Kyle Kendrick, and with a lifetime strikeout rate of 12.6 percent and pitch-to-contact approach, he represents a ghastly combination of skill set and environment. But, then again, this is a franchise that has tried the same thing with Jamie Moyer, Tyler Chatwood, Jair Jurrjens, et al in recent years. The result will be exactly the same this year. Interestingly, the bullpen has some live arms and the kind of strikeout rates which are mandatory to survive in Coors. That's the path to optimism for the Rockies this year: Limited innings from the starters and a parade of relievers to support a dangerous lineup backed by very good defense.
It seems incomprehensible when you compare the starting lineups that the Rockies could be in contention with the Braves, Phillies, and Diamondbacks for the worst team in the NL. But their total wins market of 73.5 tells the story. Based on their starting lineup, it looks like there has to be more upside than downside if you take the over. But the state of the starting rotation and the injury history of the starters make it too risky a play.
2015 projection: 71-91 (fourth, NL West)
Bet recommendation: Pass