ESPN Chalk's Joe Peta is sharing his season win total projections for every MLB team, including a reason for optimism and pessimism. Plus, he recommends an over/under play, or a pass. This is the entry for the Cincinnati Reds.
Cincinnati Reds
Reason for optimism: Last year's disappointment corresponded with losing Joey Votto for nearly two-thirds of the season. He returns healthy in 2015.
Reason for pessimism: The Reds got to first base with less frequency than nearly any other MLB team in 2014.
The Reds refuse to be mediocre. Going back to the 2001 season, the Reds have only once finished the season with their win total in the 80s. In every year other than 2006, they either won in the 90s or the 70s with a couple of 60-win seasons in there as well. Last year's 76-win squad represented a disappointment for a team that had won at least 90 games in three of the prior four seasons. Sadly for Reds fans though, it almost certainly marked the end of their recent postseason contention.
The Reds "earned" their 76 wins last year, scoring fewer than 600 runs (28th in the majors) for the first time since 1982. The culprit for the more than 100-run drop in production was easy to identify. The 2013 Reds, with Shin-Soo Choo leading off, had an OBP of .327 (sixth in MLB); with Choo and his .432 OBP relocating to Texas last year, the Reds got on base at just a .296 clip, second worst in the majors. The bad news for Reds fans is that they ranked 21st in OBP the year before Choo's arrival. Even worse, they've only made a single change to the starting lineup for 2015: 37-year old Marlon Byrd, coming off a .312 OBP season with Philadelphia, replaces Ryan Ludwick (.308 OBP in '14) in left field. The Reds clearly didn't address their biggest problem.
Votto might return to MVP-caliber production and the Reds could badly use Billy Hamilton to take some walks and develop as a hitter, but the rest of the players, to quote the immortal words of Denny Green, "are who we thought they were." As such, it's very hard to project the Reds to score significantly more runs than they did in 2014.
A benefit to their lineup stability however, is the fact that this has been an outstanding defensive team the last two years, ranking first and fifth in adjusted defensive efficiency in '13 and '14 respectively. Then again, it really can't go up from here, so an improvement in run suppression will need to come from the pitching staff. And, like defense, that presents a problem.
The starting rotation was a true strength of the team, fourth best in the NL once you strip out the influence of defense and park effects. So, can it get better? Johnny Cueto had the best year of his career -- which is saying something because it was the fourth straight year in which he had an ERA under 3.00 -- and this time he did it while leading the NL in innings pitched. Off a 244 innings workload, another 2.25 ERA performance is extremely unlikely, but he's an unquestioned ace in a league full of glamorous No. 1 starters. Mike Leake and Homer Bailey return with skills to match their 3.70 ERAs. The change will come at the Nos. 4 and 5 slots in the rotation; Anthony DeSclafani and Jason Marquis would appear to have little chance of matching the sub 3.50 ERAs of the departed Mat Latos and Alfredo Simon. In short, there will be more runs allowed by this year's staff than last year's.
You wouldn't think any bullpen anchored by Aroldis Chapman would struggle but the Reds were one of only two teams in the NL whose bullpens had an ERA over 4.00. There was a strange amount of bad luck in that result. The Reds defense was best in the league when the starters were on the mound but not even average with the bullpen in the game. The relief corps certainly figures to reside on the happy side of a 4.00 ERA this year, so improvement there should partially offset any decline in starting pitching results.
Unless players break their tendencies, the Reds' ceiling looks pretty set and that doesn't paint an optimistic picture for this year. The offense fell off a cliff in 2014 without a quality leadoff man, there was nothing done to arrest the OBP weakness and the starting rotation and defense really don't have anywhere to go but down.
As noted earlier, the Reds don't finish seasons with 80-odd wins and they're not priced to do that this year either. At a total wins market of 77.5, the Reds are fairly priced. Their days of postseason contention behind the core of Votto, Jay Bruce, Brandon Phillips and Cueto are quickly disappearing.
2015 projection: 79-83 (fourth place, NL Central)
Bet recommendation: Pass