Saturday's fight between Vasiliy Lomachenko and Richard Commey (5:30 p.m. ET, ESPN/ESPN+) should be a great fight, for as long as it lasts. Both fighters have a common opponent in Teofimo Lopez, and the results were drastically different. While Lomachenko lost on points in a highly anticipated undisputed lightweight championship fight in October 2020, Commey was brutally knocked out in the second round by Lopez with one of those lightweight titles on the line in December 2019.
This is the second consecutive former Lopez opponent for Lomachenko. Masayoshi Nakatani, the hard-hitting Japanese fighter who gave Lopez his first real test of his pro career by going the distance, was knocked out by Lomachenko. The former pound-for-pound king made it a point to use Nakatani as an example to try to show the world he's a much better fighter than Lopez. Lomachenko was the first man to stop Nakatani.
It's going to be hard to top a second-round KO, but there's a lot on the line for Lomachenko in this fight beyond the ego boost of outdoing Lopez -- namely the first shot at the new lightweight king, George Kambosos Jr.
So what does Commey bring to the table? Plenty. A few of the raw numbers actually favor Commey. He almost doubles Loma's career win total with his knockout victories alone. But anyone who knows anything about Lomachenko, his amateur career and how much he has done in his pro career in that small sample of fights knows there's a lot more to that story.
Stylistically, this shapes up as a battle of aggression. Commey likes to bull forward behind a heavy stiff jab to set up his concussive right hand. Lomachenko, the smaller, more agile fighter, typically employs intelligent aggression. Lomachenko uses feints, slot changes, pendulum bouncing and front-plus-backfoot shuffles to create different angles for his attacks. As he's doing all of those things, Lomachenko is slowly inching forward to close distance and operate at the most dangerous distance in boxing -- midrange.
Does a southpaw have an advantage over an orthodox fighter?
Ever since I started boxing in 1994, any time I was up against a southpaw, the challenge seemed far-fetched. Mentally orthodox fighters become eerie, hollow, suppressed because the southpaw stance is known throughout the boxing world to have a superior advantage due to angles and positioning. But I'm here to tell you there are no advantages for a southpaw stance versus an orthodox stance! The real reason why a southpaw seems to have an advantage is that he is more accustomed to battling the open stance given in southpaw versus orthodox matchups.
Lomachenko, the southpaw, and Commey, the orthodox boxer, will be fighting for the outside lead-foot positioning. This is known as the "L" position. The fighters' lead feet are on the same side, and so are their lead hands. Each fighter's back hand lines up ideally in the gap between his opponent's guard.
Lomachenko is an 8-to-1 betting favorite, but favorites are not invincible, as the last few weeks have shown. Just ask Lopez. Commey does have a puncher's chance. We have seen Lomachenko put down via a right hand in the past, against the always dangerous veteran Jorge Linares, and Commey has more devastating punching power than Linares.
That miscalculation by Lomachenko can sometimes allow him to get somewhat ahead of himself. He walks straight in with his head on the centerline, making himself vulnerable for a straight right hand. Lomachenko is also available for an uppercut, as most of his punches come from midrange. Any time a puncher leaves home, the middle is always open.
Timing can beat speed, and Commey will have to time the shorter-armed, quicker boxer in Lomachenko as he moves inside defensively, while looking for his offense. Commey will need to attack the body of Lomachenko to slow him down because he is always in motion. Positioning and timing are two ingredients required by Commey to come away with an upset victory over Lomachenko.
There are a few ways for Lomachenko to deal with the tremendous punching power from Commey. Concentration is a must, and it must be at an all-time high so that Lomachenko can see all of those punches coming. If you can see it, you can avoid it. Lateral movement is a must, as it makes a puncher pick up his feet, causing him to reset his position. If you keep a puncher off balance, you can limit his punching power.
Then there are feints, which Lomachenko is masterful at. Foot, upper body and hand feints create diversions that help a fighter gather information about his opponent, and Lomachenko -- famous for his slow starts as he "downloads" information -- uses that information to break down his opponents. Lomachenko is aggressive with his defense, feints and movement.
This matchup is dangerous for both. I anticipate Lomachenko will start a lot slower than he did against Nakatani because Commey is considerably bigger and stronger. He outreaches Lomachenko by four inches. Loma is technically better and wiser, and has seen this style many times.
I envision a slow breakdown for Commey, leading up to something exceptional and scintillating. Everyone who watches will understand why Lomachenko is a living legend. Strength comes in many forms, but the one with the most vigorous mind seemingly always perseveres. Lomachenko wins by late TKO stoppage.