ESPN's Timothy Bradley breaks down one of the most anticipated fights of the year: a rematch of the biggest upset in recent boxing history as Anthony Joshua looks to avenge his loss to Andy Ruiz Jr. in a high-stakes heavyweight showdown.
Rematches bring something different out of fighters.
In my trilogy with Manny Pacquiao, the third time that I faced him, I got the best Pacquiao. He was a lot more patient, he took his time, and he didn't rush anything. He was sharper on the trigger. He was punching harder than I'd felt him in the previous two fights.
I was expecting a pressure Pacquiao. I was expecting the guy to come get me, and he didn't come and get me. He just seemed more cerebral. It was a different Pacquiao, and his preparation made all the difference.
It'll make all the difference for Joshua and Ruiz, too. Whoever comes in with the best game plan, as long as they stick to it, will have the edge.
Both fighters are preparing for this rematch with change on their minds. Joshua decided to get smaller, shrinking down and pulling off some of that muscle mass ahead of his second fight with Ruiz. With him getting leaner, it's pretty clear what type of fight he's looking for.
Ruiz and his trainer, Manny Robles, understand that they're going to see a completely different Joshua. They're planning for a different Joshua, and that's the reason I like Robles. Even though Ruiz enjoyed the fruits of his hard labor after beating Joshua, living it up a little bit, he has been working out like crazy, and he has trimmed down, too.
At first, I thought it was a bad thing. Why change the equation when it worked the first time? But as I thought about it, it started to make a lot more sense. Joshua's changing it up, sure, but will he know what to expect from Ruiz after he has also slimmed his frame? It seems like Ruiz is going to want to box, too, because it worked well the first time, and he rightfully thinks he's the better boxer. Better physical fitness is only going to help him with that.
In the first fight, Ruiz had the fast twitch muscles working, the fast hands and the punching power. He also has a good fight IQ.
I think Ruiz is going to set traps for Joshua and try to make Joshua run into something. If he's going to beat Joshua again, Ruiz is going to have to force Joshua to make mistakes and then make him pay.
Joshua's going to be an entirely different animal, though, and hopefully motivated because this fight could be a now-or-never moment in his career.
In the first fight, the Joshua I was watching, I didn't recognize him. It seemed like something was wrong -- I didn't know who that guy was. I wasn't sure what was going on with him. This time around, Joshua will be a different fighter. He has to be. I'm curious to see how Ruiz is going to deal with it. Joshua, despite cutting some of his size, has a significant height advantage and will try to use that to be the one to define the pace and style of the fight.
If all goes according to plan, Joshua is going to want to box Ruiz's ears off, and his preparation for this fight shows that he's all-in. That's clear when you look at the type of sparring partners he's working with, who offer a nice cross-section of what Ruiz does best. You have cruiserweight Andrew Tabiti in there so that Joshua can deal with a guy who has some fast hands and a few fighters who come forward and act like bullies, including heavyweight Dereck Chisora.
It's going to be a great style match and a great night of boxing. Here's how each fighter can get it done:
How Joshua should approach the fight
If I were in camp with Joshua, I'd focus a lot on getting his head right. Mentally, we're starting over from scratch. This is going to be the new Joshua. Constantly reinforce that he's the bigger man, the stronger man. He's a physical specimen. Joshua has to believe that.
It's all mental. He can prepare all he wants, but if Joshua's mentality is the same as it was during the first fight with Ruiz, the second fight will end the same way as the first. He has to be the boss. Joshua has to erase all of the negativity from that first fight. He has to have amnesia, and he cannot go in the ring with any of those thoughts lingering in his head.
Even if Joshua comes into this fight with the right frame of mind, he's going to be tested once he starts getting hit. If Ruiz gets him with a big shot and his legs start to wobble or he gets knocked off balance or something, it could bring him right back to where he was in that first fight. It can all spiral, especially when Ruiz starts hunting him down and getting aggressive.
If he can stay mentally tough and stay in the fight, I think Joshua should be able to pull off the victory. But it's a big if.
I would also work on making sure Joshua can fight tall, using every bit of his height and his reach. Establish his jab and work off of that. He doesn't have to move as much as Ruiz moves. In recent fights especially, Joshua has moved around too much.
In the first fight with Ruiz, he was running. I don't know what I would call it, but it wasn't boxing. Joshua was moving backward constantly, and I just kept thinking, "Man, you are the bigger guy. Establish yourself. Draw that line in the sand."
Before he steps in that ring, I'd keep the same message going through Joshua's head over and over again. Get him back to where he was before the Ruiz fight, get him repeating it over and over again: "I'm the champ. I'm the champ."
Once he gets going with his jab, he can come behind that right hand. Joshua has to be fundamentally sound, technical and not careless. If there's even a small slip, Ruiz is going to be right there in front of him to capitalize on it. Joshua has to be smart, using that jab to draw a line in the sand this time around, basically saying, "Ruiz, if you cross this line, you're getting hit."
How Ruiz should approach this fight
I would tell Ruiz not to rush it or feel the pressure to charge forward. All of the pressure here is on Joshua, and he's the one who has to show up. Joshua has to press the action because Ruiz is the champion and playing with house money. Joshua has to come in and take it from Ruiz.
My game plan would be for Ruiz to be patient, lure Joshua in, let him make mistakes. With all of the work he has been doing, I'm sure Ruiz is in shape enough to go 12 hard rounds. I would turn up the fight in the second half, when Joshua comes down from the adrenaline rush of the beginning. Some of that energy gets drained and zapped over the course of a fight, and some of that power diminishes -- then I send my lion Ruiz inside.
Ultimately, they're going to try to break Joshua down to the body, just as they did in the first fight. By shooting the jab down to the body, he'll try to open Joshua up so that he can catch him over the top with the left hook or the overhand right. There will be lots and lots of countering as well, making Joshua do the work. Anytime Joshua throws, Ruiz is going to counter.
How the fight will play out
I can see this fight going a couple of ways. Joshua could come out flaming hot and aggressive, fully applying himself and being dominant. Or he could be a little cagier and try to lure Ruiz in using his size.
Robles is going to have Ruiz ready, and maybe he'll even have Ruiz come in firing from the start, which might surprise Joshua. The most likely scenario, though, is that Ruiz will look for the advantage by fighting off the back foot more in this fight.
There are so many thoughts in my head about this fight. I can see so many different things that can happen and so many different ways for each guy to approach it.
I keep going back and forth, back and forth, because neither one of these guys has a clear edge. They both have everything to fight for, and to me, it's 50-50 as to who will come out on top. If you push me for a prediction, I'll go with a few key numbers: 6-foot-6, 249 pounds, one Olympic gold medal and an 82-inch reach. Joshua brings the heat and gets it done this time, finishing the fight inside of four rounds by TKO.