Byron Scott's debut as the Los Angeles Lakers' head coach exceeded expectations for those predicting failure for the former Showtime standout. The Lakers lost by 18 to the Houston Rockets, matching their worst season-opening defeat since moving to Los Angeles in 1960, according to ESPN Stats & Info. Most tragically, heralded rookie Julius Randle, one of the rare long-term assets in the team's portfolio, broke his leg in the fourth quarter, potentially costing him his season.
The loss of Randle, a player owned in 40.7 percent of ESPN leagues at the moment (which should rapidly decrease as news spreads), became the major storyline of the night. There was some real potential for Randle to assume a fantasy-relevant share of the Lakers' offense, especially with such a listless collection of competitors past Carlos Boozer and Jordan Hill on the depth chart for meaningful minutes on the block. Our projections had Randle set for a respectable freshman campaign with 10.5 points and nearly seven boards a night. The loss of Randle for the Lakers is undoubtedly far more dramatic than his absence from fantasy rosters, but it was an ugly blow to what has the makings of a lost season for the storied franchise.
The fantasy fallout from Randle's absence leads us to directly to Boozer and Hill, veteran bigs likely to consume the offensive usage left in the rookie's wake. Our preseason projection profile for Hill plays perfectly into this scenario offering him more minutes and usage, as the "per-minute production over the course of his five-year career indicates a player that's fully capable of breaking out if an opportunity for expanded minutes presents itself . . . Hill just might get his opportunity this season after posting a productive 12.8 points, 8.6 rebounds and 1.3 blocks in only 24.3 minutes per game after the All-Star break."
If Hill has more breakout potential given his impressive production afforded 25 minutes per night, Boozer claims a more stable floor for production in regards to his ability to turn in a double-double campaign buoyed by a scoring average likely to sit in the 14-16 range per night. A steady decline in minutes during the end of his tenure in Chicago -- spurred largely by a lack of defensive proficiency on a team that demands it -- weakened Boozer's fantasy stock entering this season for the Lakers. With a thinned rotation at power forward and center now that Randle is sidelined, we'd advise pursuing Hill first given the potential for a breakout, but don't forget Boozer's safer profile for nightly returns.
While Boozer and Hill stand to get more usage with Randle out, it's best to temper overall fantasy expectations for the entire Lakers roster, given the way Scott's old-school approach is likely to play out. Fears of conservative deployment and an utter dismissal of 3-point shooting proved true; at least in the first 48-minute sample we've been afforded. The Lakers shot just 10 3-pointers on the night, making three of them, which was two more attempts and two fewer makes than the Rockets' Trevor Ariza launched himself. Scott's enunciated stance that the team is best served taking 10 to 13 3-pointers per night limits the appeal of Jeremy Lin and even Kobe Bryant to a degree if such an agenda persists.
The Rockets led the league in 3-pointers made and attempted last season, so a gap in deep-shooting performance is to be expected from most opponents, but let's remember that the Lakers tied the Warriors last year for sixth in the league in 3-point attempts while connecting on 38.1 percent of them, good for the third best in the league last season. It's merely a one-game sample, but given the blowout nature of the game, the lack of willingness to expand the shooting zone for his team bodes poorly for the prospects of a significant shift in shooting philosophy from Scott.
No single Lakers player tallied 30 minutes on the night and only Robert Sacre produced a positive plus-minus rate for the team. It's tempting to look past Kobe Bryant and Jeremy Lin on this roster for cheap sources of stats in the wake of Randle's injury, but until Nick Young returns from injury it's unlikely that the cadre of veterans the Lakers employ are going to provide much help while mired in this conservative and limiting scheme.
What made the Lakers a salvageable source of fantasy interest last season was the fact that they were second in the league in pace, the number of possessions a team plays per 48 minutes. Again, last night is merely a 1.2 percent sample of the 82-game slate, but a deliberately slow pace from the Lakers' side led to a 96.58 pace for the game, a middling number by last season's standards, which was only buoyed by the Rockets' faster-paced scheme.
The game will be remembered for the tragic injury to a talented 19-year-old, but the resonating story might just be how ill-suited Scott's system is for the modern game and how limiting it could prove for fantasy investors.