Wide receivers don’t seem to break out as often and mightily as they used to. Oh sure, we saw some excellent and surprising performances at the position last season -- and some of those fellows might even break out into bigger and better things this time around -- but overall it’s not like at running back.
More rookies matter at running back. There are more training camp battles. There sure seem to be more injuries. At wide receiver, we know the top guys, and in general the top guys perform as expected, with little statistical variance, and there’s ample depth to fill in.
As we finish up our trio of “breakout” blog entries for the big three fantasy positions (quarterback, running back) it’s a good time to remind fantasy owners that when it comes to wide receiver, you might not have to take many chances. There are many wide receivers to choose from and little need for handcuffing, like at running back. Most veterans have established roles. Most rookies haven’t established much of anything yet, and rookies aren’t eligible for this blog entry.
Some of the names below might seem to have already broken out, but we’re always looking at levels of excellence, expecting linear improvement. That’s not always the case.
Potential top-10 PPR breakout
Terrelle Pryor Sr., Washington Redskins: If this athletic fellow can catch 77 passes for more than 1,000 yards with the mess of Cleveland Browns quarterbacks, then imagine what’s possible with Kirk Cousins looking his way. Pryor finished 20th in PPR scoring among wide receivers and should only improve, perhaps to WR1 status.
Amari Cooper, Oakland Raiders: First thing he needs to do is be the most valuable fantasy wide receiver on his own team, but he’s so laden with talent, expect greatness. Cooper has been close to the top 10 each of his first two seasons. A leap into further stardom, at some point, seems likely.
Davante Adams, Green Bay Packers: He was pretty underwhelming his first two seasons, and he had his opportunities when Jordy Nelson was hurt in 2015, but then Adams emerged as a top-10 PPR provider among wide receivers last year, thanks to his 12 touchdowns. Why can’t this get even better? We like Aaron Rodgers. Adams could cut more into Nelson’s targets this season.
Tyreek Hill, Kansas City Chiefs: It seems like it would be tough for any wide receiver playing with check-down quarterback Alex Smith to produce big numbers, but with Jeremy Maclin gone, the speedy Hill has that chance. He doesn’t figure to get many chances – if any -- in the return game, but if he can improve to 75 catches and 1,000 receiving yards, and score touchdowns, that’s a potential top-10 guy.
Tyrell Williams, Los Angeles Chargers: Perhaps unrelated rookie Mike Williams overcomes his back injury and becomes an instant star, but I’d much rather invest for this season in the Williams who stepped up nicely when Keenan Allen was hurt. This Williams was a top-20 guy last year.
Potential top-20 PPR breakout
DeVante Parker, Miami Dolphins: A repeater on this list from last season, Parker has battled inconsistency and injuries his first two seasons. The Ryan Tannehill season-ending injury should aid Parker, a downfield threat whom strong-armed Jay Cutler should have more luck finding.
Martavis Bryant, Pittsburgh Steelers: Few doubt the talent, but it’s tough to rely on someone with multiple violations of the league’s substance abuse policy. That said, with 15 touchdowns in 21 career games, it’s easy to see the upside, should the league let him play.
Cameron Meredith, Chicago Bears: Year No. 2 for this undrafted free agent went better than expected, and now he and Kevin White figure to see most of the targets from either Mike Glennon or rookie Mitchell Trubisky. Remember, when those guys get intercepted, it isn’t charged to the wide receivers. I like Meredith over White, as he boasts some track record for performance and health.
Corey Coleman, Cleveland Browns: Don’t laugh, but a Browns receiver topped 1,000 yards last season, so dare to dream. Well-traveled Kenny Britt was brought in to do what Pryor did, but he’s 28 and Coleman is the exciting Baylor product with blazing speed and athleticism. Perhaps each becomes at least flex-worthy.
Ted Ginn Jr., New Orleans Saints: It probably sounds ridiculous for this guy to be mentioned here, since he’s 32 and hasn’t approached a 1,000-yard season. But he’s never played with Drew Brees, either. Ginn is a clear home run threat, a DeSean Jackson-type with lesser hands, but he’s likely stepping into the Brandin Cooks role. And Brees is great. Tennessee’s Rishard Matthews went 65-945-9 last season and just missed the PPR top 20 at wide receiver. Ginn has the opportunity to do that.
Deeper league breakout
Devin Funchess, Carolina Panthers: If you’re a bit down on Kelvin Benjamin, here’s the other likely starter. With Ginn leaving, Funchess has an opportunity to be relevant.
Tyler Lockett, Seattle Seahawks: Take your pick between Lockett and Paul Richardson, youngsters with upside in an offense that might again find running the ball a problem.
Josh Doctson, Washington Redskins: He caught two passes as a rookie, but it’s another pass-heavy offense, and he should start on the outside.
Kevin White, Chicago Bears: The second receiver chosen in the 2015 draft between Cooper and Parker possesses upside, but can he stay on the field?
Nelson Agholor, Philadelphia Eagles: Here’s the fourth wide receiver chosen in that draft, and he’s been really disappointing so far. But now he’s the slot guy and Carson Wentz is breaking out.
Braxton Miller, Houston Texans: This team’s passing offense has to improve from last season, and since everyone seems to think Jaelen Strong is better than Miller and I think it’s open for debate, let’s focus on the former Ohio State quarterback.
J.J. Nelson, Arizona Cardinals: I’m officially off the John Brown bandwagon, as his health is clearly preventing him from a bigger role on Bruce Arians’ team. Someone has to step up! It’s either Nelson or Jaron Brown, and the former has averaged more than 19 yards per reception in his first two seasons, while the latter is coming back from a shredded knee.
Breshad Perriman, Baltimore Ravens: Dare to dream, right? The Maclin signing couldn’t have helped him, but Perriman should see plenty of chances to emerge.
Andre Holmes, Buffalo Bills: The former Raiders deep threat should get a chance to start opposite rookie Zay Jones with Jordan Matthews coming from the slot. Tyrod Taylor likes to throw deep.
Marquise Goodwin, San Francisco 49ers: The former Bills deep threat should get a chance to start opposite, and since I actually -- perhaps crazily -- believe Brian Hoyer can surpass 3,500 passing yards, someone’s gotta be on the other end.
ArDarius Stewart, New York Jets: OK, we will name one rookie because the readers demand it! The former Alabama deep threat is now my first choice, if one must be made, among Jets receivers, albeit late. Faint praise perhaps, but Stewart is a third-round pick coming from a high-powered, well-coached offense to, well … he could be the new Quincy Enunwa, which is what we all strive to become.