Fantasy football owners sure didn’t seem too interested in Chargers running back Melvin Gordon last season. Many running backs, five tight ends and even a defense were selected earlier in ESPN ADP, and the reason is because his rookie year (2015) didn’t go well. Gordon starred in college at Wisconsin but entered Year 2 in the NFL with an undeserved reputation that he couldn’t score touchdowns, couldn’t be an effective pass-catcher and couldn’t stay healthy. Then he went and proved everyone wrong -- breaking out into a star -- and now he’s a top-10 running back in ESPN ADP.
Gordon’s story reminds us of several important factors when trying to determine potential breakout players. First, we know that pretty much everyone in the NFL has starred in this sport at some point, so anyone with opportunity can prove they belong and show their upside. Some were first-round selections like Gordon and Dallas Cowboys running back Ezekiel Elliott, others were later-round choices like Chicago Bears running back Jordan Howard -- perhaps a bit forgotten. But Gordon, Elliott and Howard all broke out as stars during the 2017 season. We knew they had skills, but when opportunity knocks, some players step up, even those who have struggled in the past. Others need another year or three.
We covered the quarterback breakouts and now it’s time for running back, a position chock-full of talent, but certainly a tad lacking in reliable options to build fantasy rosters around. Oh, there are certainly 10 or so running backs we know and mostly love, and then a bunch of rookies regarded as RB2 choices and then, well, take your chances. Some will break out, but most will not. Gordon was mentioned prominently in this space a year ago and yeah, that went well! Miami’s Jay Ajayi was also mentioned and that went well, but then again, Washington’s Matt Jones and Seattle’s Thomas Rawls, eh, not so much.
The unwritten rules of these annual breakout blog entries state -- in my mind, at least -- that anyone who hasn’t broken out yet to one of the levels below is technically in play, and there are different standards of statistical prowess.
In addition, we don’t consider rookies here. They get plenty of coverage in other blog entries! I happen to like quite a few of the rookie running backs this season, especially compared with other positions, but rookies have neither succeeded nor failed at this highest level yet, so using the term breakout for them doesn't really apply.
This is all based on value and expectations, and in some cases there are no expectations, which make the breakouts even better.
Potential top-10 PPR breakout
Isaiah Crowell, Cleveland Browns: Crowell’s third NFL season was his best, as he averaged 4.8 yards per rush and more than doubled his reception total, and all for a miserable offense. The Browns have built up the offensive line a bit and might not be as miserable, and that should help Crowell topple 1,000 rushing yards and be a worthy RB2 at the least.
Carlos Hyde, San Francisco 49ers: A repeat on this list, Hyde puts up numbers when he plays, but injuries make him a risk even for safe RB2 status. Of course, the upside is obvious. The 49ers brought in several rookies to push him, along with Tim Hightower to catch passes, and this seems like a make-or-break year for Hyde. Sometimes that’s all the motivation needed, really.
Ty Montgomery, Green Bay Packers: The former wide receiver adapted well to being the team’s top running back, and while he too will have to deal with younger competition, this isn’t an offense like the Browns or 49ers, either. The Packers have a Hall of Fame quarterback. Montgomery’s yards per rush figure to drop some with more work, but with an offseason to prepare for the rigors of running back duty, there’s major upside, too.
Bilal Powell, New York Jets: Someone has to generate offense for this team, and Powell, a reserve for five years, finally got his chance in 2016 and looked great doing so. Powell could always catch passes, but he also averaged 5.5 yards per carry on his 131 chances. Matt Forte is still around, but seeing how Powell carried fantasy owners in December, he’s the better option. Remember, Danny Woodhead finished as a top-five PPR player two seasons ago. One does not need to rush for 1,000 yards to achieve great value.
Potential top-20 PPR breakout
Ameer Abdullah, Detroit Lions: His third season will be an important one, since the former second-round pick from Nebraska underachieved statistically as a rookie with opportunity, and then couldn’t even make it to October last season before a foot injury tripped him up. The Lions have Theo Riddick to catch passes but need Abdullah -- who was on this list last year and possesses the same skills and upside -- to stay on the field.
Terrance West, Baltimore Ravens: The Ravens brought in Woodhead to catch passes and that figures to work out well if he’s healthy, regardless of whether quarterback Joe Flacco can overcome his back woes. Woodhead’s career high in rushing attempts is 106. With Kenneth Dixon out of the picture, West should get plenty of touches and perhaps his first 1,000-yard campaign.
Mike Gillislee, New England Patriots: It sure is crowded in that backfield! However, Gillislee is a bigger fellow than the relevant others like James White and Dion Lewis, and the former Dolphin and Bill proved adept at finding the end zone in 2016, with nine scores on barely 100 touches. I’m not saying Gillislee will do what departed LeGarrette Blount did (18 touchdowns!), but he’s got a shot, and Blount finished top-10, even in PPR and even catching only seven passes.
Rob Kelley, Washington Redskins: Here is a larger, wider running back capable of achieving 1,000 yards if given the opportunity. But again, this is PPR and he won’t be catching passes. He’ll need to hit the end zone, and is certainly capable of doing so.
Paul Perkins, New York Giants: He looked like the best running back for this club last season as a rookie, but didn’t get many chances. Now he should. It’s really that simple. This offensive line might not be great, but if Perkins gets 200-plus touches -- and he should -- then volume drives the value.
Deeper-league breakout
Wendell Smallwood, Philadelphia Eagles: It’s a bit of a mess in Philly’s backfield, with Blount expected to handle most of the carries and the smaller types fighting for the receptions, but Smallwood enters his second year with a chance to handle carries and receptions if others struggle. And we should point out that Blount is no lock for success, since he has rarely enjoyed any outside New England.
Devontae Booker, Denver Broncos: His availability for early September games is in doubt due to a wrist injury, and I’d actually rather recommend a rookie in this spot but can’t because of my silly rules about not naming rookies in this blog entry. (But De'Angelo Henderson looks legit if C.J. Anderson underwhelms again.) We can’t simply dismiss Booker, but he looked more appealing in July.
C.J. Prosise, Seattle Seahawks: He’s the pass-catcher in Seattle’s backfield, but watching the uninspired play of Thomas Rawls and Eddie Lacy last season and this month, one wonders if Prosise simply will get the chance to do everything himself.
Derrick Henry, Tennessee Titans: There’s a top-10 running back in his way, but if something happens to DeMarco Murray the bulldozing Henry should at least accumulate touchdowns.
Kenyan Drake, Miami Dolphins: Much like Henry, here’s another big Alabama product behind one of the better running backs in the game. And as with Murray, we can find reasons for concern. Jay Ajayi rushed for 200 yards in three different games last season, which was awesome and nearly half his season total, but that means he wasn’t so great in other games.
DeAndre Washington, Oakland Raiders: For those concerned that Marshawn Lynch won’t be so great after coming out of retirement, Washington and Jalen Richard could be relevant. Washington appears to be ahead on the current depth chart. Combined, these fellows ran 170 times -- split nearly evenly -- for 958 yards, a robust 5.6 yards per tote. The Raiders have options.