Fantasy football owners should be conditioned to be wary of rookie quarterbacks by this point, but when passers chosen with the highest of real-life draft picks get to Year 2, things change. We saw it in the interest level of Tampa Bay Buccaneers star Jameis Winston and Tennessee Titans icon Marcus Mariota, the first two picks in the 2015 draft. They were actually solid as rookies, and while only Mariota improved for fantasy purposes his second season, fantasy owners were obviously intrigued by them and their bright futures.
A year later, the top two picks in the NFL draft were Jared Goff and Carson Wentz, and each is expected to make strides this season, but only one of them appears intriguing for impatient fantasy rosters, and that’s for formats deeper than 10-team leagues. Then again, what if each of them took strides to greater fantasy relevance? We’ll take a deeper look in this space, because for some the term “breaking out” can mean dreaming, too. As with sleepers and busts and the rarely-understood-for-context term of “do not draft,” this can be interpreted myriad ways.
As a result, we’ll separate the levels of dreaming into sections. Wentz’s breakout might not end up in the same place as others. Also, no rookies are included. Dak Prescott broke out in 2016 but he had never played in the league before, so what did he break out from, college? Ordinary expectations? It would be tough to predict more breaking out from him for 2017, though it is, of course, possible. After all, I believe Kirk Cousins, Derek Carr and Tyrod Taylor have already broken out, since they were top-10 quarterbacks -- or darn close to it -- in 2016, but would it be a total shock if any or all pushed through the top-five QB door?
So let’s start “breakout” week in this blog space with the passers, and remember it’s always about value first. Any statistical breakout needs proper context based on past results and expectations in combination with value. These players have yet to reach the level being dreamt about, so let’s all start dreaming -- because on occasion, even in fantasy football, these dreams come true.
Potential top-10 breakout
Jameis Winston, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and Marcus Mariota, Tennessee Titans: They’ll be linked together for a long time, so it’s reasonable to do so here. Each came close to the top 10 last season as they further developed. Winston scored fewer fantasy points, but only because the rushing touchdowns predictably dropped. He actually got better overall, as did Mariota. And each quarterback has more weapons this season, as the Buccaneers signed legitimate deep threat DeSean Jackson and the Titans drafted exciting Corey Davis and signed proven Eric Decker. I think Winston is more likely to make the big leap, as he already throws well downfield and durability is less in question, but each is tempting.
Carson Wentz, Philadelphia Eagles: The North Dakota State product wasn’t supposed to start as a rookie, but all of a sudden the Sam Bradford trade forced him into the role and he made everyone look good in September. Then, not coincidentally, when right tackle Lane Johnson was suspended, Wentz wasn’t so good. The tools are there for big numbers, however. Wentz has a strong, accurate arm and the mobility to escape trouble, and the Eagles, with arguably the worst set of wide receivers a season ago, now employ proven Alshon Jeffery and Torrey Smith. Wentz could definitely add 10 touchdown passes to his ledger, and that would make him fantasy-relevant this season.
Potential top-20 breakout
Jared Goff, Los Angeles Rams: There’s no sugarcoating his performance as a rookie once he finally had the opportunity to play, and it should be made crystal clear that real-life draft status means little once you’re in the league. Well, it means you might get more chances to perform, but guarantees nothing statistically. Goff does have the tools to succeed and the Rams have a new coach and approach, plus several new wide receivers who can go downfield. Remember, Oakland’s Derek Carr rarely threw the ball downfield as a rookie (5.5 passing yards per attempt) because that was the game plan and he had nobody to throw to. Then he broke out in Year 2 and people acted surprised. While I don’t necessarily expect this, Goff certainly can succeed, and nobody is thinking of him in 10- and 12-teamers.
Trevor Siemian, Denver Broncos: Perhaps he’s earned starter status simply because Paxton Lynch hasn’t, but Siemian wasn’t far from top-20 status last season in his first bit of playing time. He missed two games but otherwise was useful, especially for 2-QB formats, and there’s nothing wrong with wide receivers Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders.
Brian Hoyer, San Francisco 49ers: Laugh all you like about this 31-year-old journeyman, but mostly everything about the 49ers is new from a year ago and in a good way. Plus, Hoyer looked really good for the 2016 Bears, throwing for better than 300 yards in each of his four starts, with six touchdowns and nary an interception before breaking his arm. In 2015 for the Texans, he completed 60 percent of his passes for 19 scores and seven picks. Hoyer-to-Pierre Garcon could pay dividends in deep leagues.
Mike Glennon, Chicago Bears: His presence in Tampa Bay didn’t dissuade the organization from drafting Winston, and he was already a Bear when the franchise traded a lot for the opportunity to select Mitchell Trubisky, but once upon a time Glennon tossed 19 touchdowns versus nine interceptions as a rookie for the 2013 Bucs. The Trubisky era could start at any point, even prior to Week 1, but if the Bears let Glennon throw downfield, there could be a 3,200-yard passing season ahead.
Potential 2-QB breakout
Tom Savage, Houston Texans: A fourth-round pick in the 2014 NFL draft, Savage has never gotten a chance to play regularly and perhaps there’s a reason for that. After all, the Texans felt so confident this summer they drafted Clemson’s Deshaun Watson in the first round. Savage came into the league with the reputation for possessing a strong arm but also for questionable decision-making. The Texans might simply ask him to manage drives and avoid mistakes, but with an intriguing running game and DeAndre Hopkins to throw to, this could work out.
Cody Kessler, Cleveland Browns: Perhaps I’m alone in thinking he’s the best quarterback on the current Browns roster, because it seems he’s got no shot to start Week 1 over underwhelming Brock Osweiler or rookie DeShone Kizer, but let’s see how this plays out. The Browns have a running game, a strong offensive line and intriguing young receivers. I’d prefer to gamble on this offense than that of the Jets.
Chad Henne, Jacksonville Jaguars: Like Hoyer, he’s not young in football terms, and even if this 32-year-old usurps the starting role from struggling Blake Bortles, he might not be asked to do more than manage drives and avoid turnovers. But the Jaguars have had a top-10 fantasy quarterback the past two seasons. Bortles did that and he wasn’t good. Henne might be no worse than Bortles. The Jaguars want to run and defend, and perhaps that will result in junk points at the end of the fourth quarter, which so many fantasy teams with Bortles and Allen Robinson relied upon.