The St. Louis Blues are in the midst of a California swing that is always a challenging part of any team’s schedule. But once they get out of California, woo boy, does it start to ease up for Mike Yeo’s team.
Five of their seven games after leaving the Golden State are against either the Arizona Coyotes or Colorado Avalanche. In determining the toughest and easiest remaining schedules for playoff contenders, that stretch puts the Blues easily at the top of the soft list.
But you still have to win. In doing playoff projections, losing to a team that you’re heavily favored against is more of a blow to playoff projections than losing against an evenly matched team, according to hockey analytics expert Dom Luszczyszyn.
“A game you should win affects your playoff chances more than a game that should be close,” he said. “[The Blues] have a good chance to win those games, but they have to actually win them.”
Another way to put it comes from Kings coach Darryl Sutter, who said this on Tuesday night, per Kings writer Dennis Bernstein: “I’m not going to let someone sitting in a basement decide where we’re going to finish.”
The race, as Sutter is alluding to (we think?), will be won on the ice, but analytics expert Dawson Sprigings (@DTMAboutHeart) has been running the numbers on which teams have the easiest and hardest path remaining, based on the expected goals of their opponents.
Let’s run through the easiest and most difficult remaining schedules based on those numbers, removing non-contenders from the equation:
Five easiest paths to the playoffs
1. St. Louis Blues
Strength of remaining opponents (based on xG power rankings): 46.8 percent
The Blues work their way back to St. Louis from their current road trip with stops in Arizona and Colorado before three consecutive games at home. They don’t have a back-to-back set of games until the final two games of the season, and those two games come against the Avalanche and Hurricanes. Besides the slew of games against the Coyotes and Avs, the Blues' slate of five games in April feature just one game against a projected playoff team.
It’s set up nicely for the Blues, who have played really well under Mike Yeo. The improved team play has been reflected in the goaltending of Jake Allen, who has a .941 save percentage in 14 games since the All-Star break.
A playoff spot is very much there for the taking in St. Louis.
2. Strength of remaining opponents: 48.2 percent
The Kings have a fairly friendly schedule left according to these numbers, but Tuesday’s shootout loss to the Coyotes is a reminder that a schedule is only friendly if you win the games you have to win.
The Kings have games remaining against non-playoff teams like the Sabres, Jets and Coyotes, but the interesting thing is that they have a total of six games left against the Oilers and Flames, including two sets of back-to-backs. If they’re going to somehow catch those teams, they’re going to have to do it themselves.
3. Strength of remaining opponents: 48.9 percent
The Wild are in a dogfight with the Blackhawks at the top of the Central, and their schedule suggests they have a slight edge.
And if the race for the top seed in the Western Conference comes down to the final week of the season, the Wild will be set up nicely. Minnesota closes the season with a four-game stretch that includes two games against the Avalanche, one against the Coyotes and one against the Hurricanes.
4. Strength of remaining opponents: 49.4 percent
In a bit of a scheduling quirk, the Capitals join these Western Conference playoff teams in getting multiple shots at the Coyotes, with games against Arizona on March 25 and 31.
The Capitals are going to want to bank points in late March where the schedule eases up, because it gets challenging in April where they will be finishing against teams fighting for their playoff lives, like the Bruins and Maple Leafs.
5. Strength of remaining opponents: 49.5 percent
The Oilers broke out of a mini-slump by blasting the Stars 7-1 on Tuesday. Like many teams on this list, the Oilers' schedule is eased up by playing multiple games against the Avalanche. That will help.
But the Oilers' playoff position may end up hinging on how they perform against the Canucks. Edmonton faces the Canucks three more times this season, including the final two games of the season. The Oilers are 1-0-1 in two games against the Canucks this season, outshooting Vancouver 71-58 in those games.
Five hardest paths to the playoffs
1. Strength of remaining opponents: 51.5 percent
It’s been a bit of an uneven March for the Islanders, who have propelled themselves back into the playoff conversation under Doug Weight. They have just two regulation wins this month, and the schedule doesn’t get any easier.
Five of the next six games come against playoff teams, and the gap between the playoff and non-playoff teams in the East is much smaller than in the West, so there are really no breaks in the schedule for the Islanders. For instance, the Islanders have two games left against the Devils, but New Jersey has played the Islanders close this season, with the Islanders enjoying just a one-goal edge in total after two games.
2. Strength of remaining opponents: 51.4 percent
If the Flames ever lose again, it’ll be in part because of tough schedule. They timed up their winning streak at a great moment in the campaign, because if they were on the bubble at the end of the season, it would have been a challenge to get in.
The Flames' final six games all come against the California teams, in a stretch of games that will ultimately decide the Pacific Division seeding.
3. Strength of remaining opponents: 51.0 percent
The Rangers have the East's top wild-card spot on lockdown, but also have aspirations of working their way up the Metropolitan Division standings. The schedule won’t make it easy.
They still have a trip West through all three California teams at the end of March, and then return home to host the Penguins. Their final three games of the regular season come against playoff teams, with two of the three against top Stanley Cup contenders Washington and Pittsburgh. Nearly every team remaining on the Rangers' schedule is still fighting for a playoff spot.
4. Strength of remaining opponents: 50.6 percent
Toronto has an absolutely huge game against the Lightning Thursday night, a game that could end up being one game that decides the playoff fate of the two teams involved. Things are that close. But even thereafter, it doesn’t get any easier.
The Maple Leafs have just two games remaining against the West, and they both come against playoff teams (Predators and Blackhawks). So there’s no Avalanche or Coyotes break on the horizon. The good news is the Maple Leafs end their season with a nice little four-game home stand. The bad news is that those four teams are the Capitals, Lightning, Penguins and Blue Jackets.
5. Strength of remaining opponents: 50.4 percent
The Senators may be the only team on this list that will actually benefit from a challenging schedule. Ottawa has pushed Montreal at the top of the Atlantic, but it would ultimately benefit the Senators if they finish right where they currently stand -- No. 2 in the division. The road to the Eastern Conference finals is much more manageable without having to navigate through potential wild-card teams like the Rangers or Lightning.
The hardest part of Ottawa’s schedule comes in the remaining March games, where the Senators face playoff teams in all but one of the eight games, and the non-playoff team is a formidable Flyers team. It’s a challenge, but treading water may not be a bad thing for the Senators and their playoff positioning.