We’re still a couple days out from the trade deadline, and the first rental deal involving a first-round pick is off the board. Depending on how Patrick Eaves does in Anaheim, there might be another one gone.
There’s an often repeated but incorrect theory thrown around by NHL general managers: that nobody trades a first-rounder for a rental anymore. They do. Maybe just not as frequently as the past.
There’s also a theory that this year, it could become more frequent, because nobody is especially enamored with the 2017 draft class.
Arizona Coyotes GM John Chayka has heard that second theory, and he’ll have no issues collecting picks in this draft, if that’s where the best trade deadline offers exist.
“I don’t buy it,” Chayka said of the concept of an average draft. “A weak draft means less consensus. ... Our guys will find the good players regardless of the perceived strength of the draft.”
Here’s something to consider for buying teams attempting to land a first-round pick in the 2017 draft. The reason it’s considered a weak draft is because it doesn’t have the star power at the top. There’s no Auston Matthews, Connor McDavid, Patrik Laine or Jack Eichel waiting to help turn around a franchise. But drafts with those kind of generational players are the exception rather than the rule.
The thing about the 2017 draft is that a player one team has rated in the 20s could be a player another team has rated in the top 10. So if you’re the Coyotes or Stars or any other seller, and you’re getting a pick in the bottom third of this draft, it could end up having the same impact as a lottery pick.
Chayka noted that the Martin Hanzal trade netted him draft picks in each of the next three drafts, so on some level he’s hedging his bets.
“You spread the risk a little that way,” he said.
But he was quick to point out that drafts that have been labeled as poor still produce good players.
For instance, the 2012 draft wasn’t great. The star power at the top didn’t include a franchise player. The No. 1 overall pick, Nail Yakupov, is already on his second team and may end up in the KHL.
But that same draft netted teams Hampus Lindholm (No. 6 overall), Jacob Trouba (No. 9 overall), Filip Forsberg (No. 11), Andrei Vasilevskiy (No. 19), Shayne Gostisbehere (No. 78), Colton Parayko (No. 86), Frederik Andersen (No. 87), Andreas Athanasiou (No. 110) -- well, you get it.
The 2017 draft won’t be color-by-numbers, but maybe that’s exactly why it makes sense to have more picks than usual throughout. The players will be there; it’s about increasing the odds of landing them.
Nine other takeaways from the weekend of NHL (trade) action:
2. Take everything said with a grain of salt
This is the time of year for misdirection from NHL general managers. Sometimes it’s pumping up the interest in players, sometimes it’s denying a player would ever be moved -- and then trading him two days later. That’s how it goes. Chayka gave a hint of that when he was asked about comments he’d previously made about a potential Hanzal trade during his post-trade conference call.
“I guess first thing is sometimes I’m not always the most truthful in my discussions with the media,” he said in starting an answer explaining a deal.
3. Chayka sad to see White go
Now, understanding that by his own admission we can’t necessarily believe everything Chayka says, he did seem genuinely disappointed to include Ryan White in the Hanzal trade to Minnesota.
“He’s a guy I didn’t really want or expect to move,” Chayka said.
The Wild were looking for right-handed shooting depth forward, and someone who can help on the penalty kill, which are two boxes that White checks. So another way to look at this trade is to break it into smaller pieces: A first- and second-round pick for Hanzal, and a conditional fourth-round pick for White. Makes it a little easier to digest.
4. Just say no to fence-sitting
The big haul the Coyotes received for Hanzal highlights a point one executive made after the deal. There is a payoff in the NHL for teams that commit to rebuilding. You don’t want to be on the fence this time of year.
“You can really reap the rewards of futility at times in this league,” said the assistant GM. “If you’re there, you might as well make the most of it.”
That was essentially Chayka’s message on his conference call. He doesn’t enjoy tearing it down in Arizona, but it’s necessary.
“Today is not an easy day,” he said. “It’s something I hope to never go through again.”
5. Arizona's strategy this summer
When the dust settles, the challenge for the Coyotes will be surrounding all these prospects and picks with the right quality veterans. It wouldn’t be surprising to see them active around the expansion draft and to spin some of these picks into players whom teams might otherwise lose for nothing in the expansion draft.
Hanzal and the Coyotes talked contract in the offseason, and the Coyotes didn’t necessarily close the door on bringing him back.
“You never say never,” Chayka said. “It’s important for him to go and have a successful run.”
6. Latest on the Shattenkirk buzz
There’s a growing belief that Kevin Shattenkirk has his ultimate destination picked out, with the New York Rangers being the heavy favorite. But one source close to Shattenkirk shot down any speculation that his mind is already made up.
This is probably a good time to remind everyone that as a Massachusetts native, Keith Yandle was supposed to sign with the Boston Bruins in free agency, but in reality it was the Florida Panthers who swooped in and grabbed him. Few had Alex Goligoski going to the Coyotes, either.
That said, there has to be little motivation for the Rangers to give up anything of significance for Shattenkirk at the trade deadline. One source completely shot down any Shattenkirk rental deal between the Rangers and Blues that might require Chris Kreider to go the other way. Considering what the Rangers have done at the deadline the past several years, it’s hard to see them overpaying for Shattenkirk at this point.
7. Walman on the radar
One of the reasons Shattenkirk is available in the first place is because of the organizational depth the Blues have on defense. GM Doug Armstrong and his staff have done a great job drafting and developing defensemen, with Providence defenseman Jake Walman a player drawing the envy of opposing teams.
He has 23 points in 34 games this season for Providence.
“He is a really good player,” said one Western Conference executive. “Our guys like him a lot.”
8. Sheahan on the move?
The Detroit Red Wings are certainly going to be sellers on the rental market, but an NHL source confirmed that the Toronto Maple Leafs have inquired about Riley Sheahan, who has another year left on his deal that averages $2.075 million, according to capfriendly.com.
The Leafs aren’t alone, though. Several teams have made trade offers on Sheahan, who is still looking for his first goal of the season. There’s definitely interest, but so far, there hasn’t been an offer that’s been in the ballpark of what Detroit wants. Sheahan might be snakebit this season, but the Red Wings aren’t going to give him away.
9. Vegas making inroads in college free agent market
The Wild have always been active in the college free-agent hunt. Considering how many picks they sent to Arizona for the Hanzal deal, it’s fair to expect them to be even more aggressive in that arena this year. Signing college free agents has been a useful tool for teams like the Rangers, Blackhawks and Wild, who have dealt draft picks in an attempt to win playoff games in recent years.
But this year the degree of difficulty has gone up. Las Vegas has been aggressive in its pursuit of the best college free agents, and teams are realizing how tough it’s going to be to lure a college kid away from going to Vegas.
University of Minnesota-Duluth defenseman Neal Pionk is a good example. If he doesn’t sign with a team, he’s already planning on attending Vegas camp as an invite.
“There must be a dozen kids going to Vegas,” said one Western Conference executive.
10. Another smart move by Stan Bowman
Blackhawks GM Stan Bowman has consistently said he isn’t going to be a major player at the trade deadline. As Chayka suggests, sometimes there’s misdirection, but Bowman has a reputation as being a stand-up guy in terms of his communication with the media.
That’s what makes the Tomas Jurco trade a smart one for the Blackhawks. It’s relatively minor, but if it works out, it could have an impact that goes beyond this season. If it doesn’t, nobody will remember it.
“He’s a fourth-line guy who has a possibility of playing [a bigger role],” said one NHL scout of Jurco. “They’re getting nothing from their bottom six. Here’s a new bottom-six guy to throw in there and see if they can get something.”