The hockey world has been spoiled the past couple of years at the top of the NHL draft. There were no-brainers at No. 1, like Connor McDavid and Auston Matthews. There were franchise players right behind them in Jack Eichel and Patrik Laine.
Those great players ended up pushing other really good players down a few slots so that teams like the Columbus Blue Jackets could grab a Zach Werenski at No. 8 (2015) or the Calgary Flames a Matthew Tkachuk at No. 6 overall (2016).
“There’s been prime rib and filet. Everybody was racing to finish last,” said one NHL team executive. “It’s such a credit to the crew that has come out the last couple years. There’s going to be some really good players [this year], but I don’t think there’s that zest.”
In part because of the strength of the draft class last year, only one team traded its first-round pick at the deadline -- and that was the trade that sent Andrew Ladd to the Blackhawks. Chicago could do that deal feeling pretty good about its pick not being one of real consequence in the first round. Even so, the pick the Jets got from Chicago turned out to be Windsor defenseman Logan Stanley, a player with whom the Jets organization has been thrilled so far.
This year’s draft? There just isn’t the same excitement surrounding it. The NHL standings give that away. Nobody is working overly hard to move to the bottom like we’ve seen in previous years. The worst teams aren’t there by design -- both Colorado and Arizona would have been more than happy to take a step forward this season.
In the East, the team currently in the basement is the Tampa Bay Lightning, a team picked by some, poor, misguided souls to win the Stanley Cup. Not that this misguided soul is bitter.
So the lack of any teams pulling a complete tank job was the first sign this draft wasn’t a great one. The second sign is that it’s nearly February and scouts still aren’t completely convinced who is going No. 1 overall.
“I think that’s the bottom line, when you can’t say who is definitely No. 1,” said one scouting director. “It’s not a knock on everything, it’s just that the high-end talent maybe isn’t there at picks No. 1, 2 and 3 like it was last year. This year, it’s a well-rounded group. I don’t think it’s a bad draft.”
“It’s a whole new world. It’s a little bit of a down year,” said an assistant GM. “Do you like defensemen? Do you want to get a forward? You’re going to have to work, figure out what you want, what your team needs and maybe make a pick that is not as clear-cut as last year, especially in the first round.”
A Western Conference scouting director explained it this way: Right now, you could look at every team’s top-10 list, and there probably wouldn’t be 70 percent overlap. A player from one team's top 10 could also slip into the 20s, if things don’t change between now and June.
“I think it’s a down year, if you’re picking right at the top. After that, I don’t think the players are quite as defined this year,” he said. “There’s a lot of work to be done. I don’t think it’s a bad draft; I hate to label a draft good or bad because it becomes a crutch or somebody is making an excuse. There’s going to be players.”
Over the past few years, strong drafts have meant the currency at the trade deadline has changed. The days of sending a first-round pick, prospect and NHL player anywhere for a rental player were long gone. Second-round picks replaced first-round picks as the premium, and even a third-round pick got you useful players like Justin Schultz and Teddy Purcell.
The Rangers were able to get Eric Staal without giving up a first-rounder. Same with the Stars and Kris Russell, considered the best defenseman available at last season's deadline.
Teams are still hoarding their picks because the influx of rookies this season shows just how valuable that young talent can be to a developing team.
But the first-round pick may be back in play as a way to land a player at the deadline, if the reaction from a few executives is any indication -- with a caveat. They’d prefer to do it for a player with some term left on their deal. That includes teams that aren’t clear-cut Stanley Cup contenders.
“If there was a player we thought could help us, I’d have no problem moving a first,” said a Western Conference executive. “I think if the deal is there, I’d do it. I wouldn’t be doing it for a 30-year-old, but I would for a 26- to 28-year-old with a year left on their contract.”
“I’d be willing to move a first, but not for a rental,” said an Eastern Conference GM. “If a player is young and would fit with our group moving forward.”
The challenge is finding players who fit those descriptions. The easy place to start is in Colorado, where any trade for Matt Duchene or Gabriel Landeskog would be a strong candidate to include a first-rounder, depending on how good the young defenseman headed back might be.
After that, it gets murky. If the Blues are trading Kevin Shattenkirk, the ideal return is players who can help them win in the moment, not draft picks.
And the Coyotes would likely prefer a young, close-to-the-NHL prospect back for their rentals, which would help speed up the rebuilding process in Arizona. After all, this is a rebuild that should be in the final stretches by now, so a first-round pick in a so-so draft might not suffice.
The Stars may be the best candidate to build a rental package strong enough to lure a first-rounder back, with players like Patrick Sharp and (if healthy) Johnny Oduya exactly the kind of veteran players contending teams love to have on their roster for a playoff run.
The Stars are just four points out of a playoff spot, though. There’s still time for them to convince GM Jim Nill that he shouldn’t sell.
And that’s the biggest challenge facing this deadline. There are buyers ready to go. There are first-round picks to be had, finally. Right now, the trade deadline store is pretty empty.