The cost to win the Stanley Cup is great. At the conclusion of the finals, the list of injuries always emerges, injuries like punctured lungs, separated shoulders, torn cartilage in the rib cage -- and that was just Patrice Bergeron by himself in 2013.
Trying to win a Stanley Cup in the salary cap era also comes with a financial cost. General managers rightfully go all in. They sign players to contracts they suspect won’t look great at the end, but do it in the name of winning it all in the present.
In the window between the two previous lockouts, general managers used the Ilya Kovalchuk-tail long-term contracts as a way to drive down salary cap charges while deferring the pain even longer.
For some teams, that pain has arrived. And it could be worse than originally projected because of cap recapture rules since put in place in the new CBA to punish teams if the player retires early or the contract is traded.
“Teams that did those contracts essentially embarrassed Gary [Bettman]. We found a way to circumvent the CBA legally,” said one executive. “He was incensed, and said 'I’m going to get you back.' Which he did.”
Now because of decisions made years ago, in the name of winning it all or rewarding players who helped make it happen, there are a group of teams that have legacy costs built into their current salary cap structure.
They’re still trying to win now, but they have built in salary cap space committed to players whose highest value is in the past. It creates a disadvantage right off the top for those teams.
Who has the biggest disadvantage? What’s the total price still being paid? In looking at the teams trying to win it all in the five years before the last lockout in 2012-13, a few teams emerge:
Inflated cap hits (cap numbers via capfriendly.com)
Dustin Brown
Cap hit: $5.85 million
Projected actual value: $2.5 million
Legacy cost: $3.35 million
Marian Gaborik
Cap hit: $4.875 million
Projected actual value: $2.5 million
Legacy cost: $2.375 million
Matt Greene
Cap hit: $2.5 million
Projected actual value: $1 million
Legacy cost: $1.5 million
Cap recapture penalty: Mike Richards: $1.32 million
Total legacy costs: $8.545 million
Conclusion: The Kings are still paying a steep price for their multiple Stanley Cup runs. If the Kings had an additional $8 million to spend this season, they might still have Milan Lucic or another defenseman to help out a pretty good team. They also got a break with the Mike Richards contract when they were allowed to terminate it, or it would have been worse.
“They got in trouble for not buying out Mike Richards out of loyalty for winning a Stanley Cup,” said the exec. “You had a guy that could have received the compliance buyout and didn’t. They got lucky. For sure.”
Inflated cap hits
David Krejci
Cap hit: $7.25 million
Projected actual value: $6 million
Legacy cost: $1.25 million
Zdeno Chara
Cap hit: $6.9 million
Projected actual value: $5 million
Legacy cost: $1.9 million
Total legacy costs: $3.15 million
Conclusion: The Bruins emerged from this era in pretty good shape. Krejci is slightly overvalued but still a good player. You could even argue that, if he hit the open market in free agency this summer, he’d get a deal close to the four years at $7.25 million he has left on his current one. Chara’s cap hit drops to $4 million next season, which actually might provide value.
Inflated cap hits
Marian Hossa
Cap hit: $5.27 million
Projected actual value: $4 million
Legacy cost: $1.27 million
Total legacy costs: $1.27 million
Conclusion: Hossa has had a bit of resurgence this season so that contract is less of an immediate concern -- but there’s still four years remaining on it. It’s going to be an issue at some point for GM Stan Bowman to deal with. Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane are still providing full value for their contracts, but they have the potential to be an issue as those two start playing into their 30s. Brent Seabrook is worth close to the $6.875 million he’s earning this season but at 31, it’s hard to imagine that being the case in three or four years.
It’s a concern for another day, but it’s probably fair to say the Blackhawks have a real headache coming in about three years. In the 2019-20 season, for example, Kane and Toews will be 31 and declining. Hossa will be 40. Brent Seabrook and Corey Crawford will be 34. That group will combine for a cap hit of nearly $40 million. If Chicago can find a taker for Seabrook this offseason to clear room for Artemi Panarin, it would be better to shift that financial commitment to a player much younger.
Total legacy costs: None
Conclusion: Give previous GM Ray Shero and current GM Jim Rutherford credit. This team has been trying to win a Stanley Cup for over a decade and there are no leftover lingering bad deals from that stretch. Part of it is because the team was so young when it won, and they also missed out on free agents they tried signing, like Zach Parise and Marian Hossa, but the Penguins are a legitimate Stanley Cup contender today because of their lack of bad legacy deals and the flexibility that provides.
Inflated cap hits
Henrik Zetterberg
Cap hit: $6.1 million
Projected actual value: $5 million
Legacy cost: $1.1 million
Niklas Kronwall
Cap hit: $4.75 million
Projected actual value: $3 million
Legacy cost: $1.75 million
Jonathan Ericsson
Cap hit: $4.25 million
Projected actual value: $3 million
Legacy cost: $1.25 million
Jimmy Howard
Cap hit: $5.29 million
Projected actual value: $4 million
Legacy cost: $1.29 million
Johan Franzen
Cap hit: $3.95 million
Projected actual value: Injured
Legacy cost: $3.95 million
Total legacy cost: $9.34 million
Conclusion: GM Ken Holland was aggressive in using long-term contracts to drive down salary cap hits in order to surround his stars with the best possible team in trying to win a Stanley Cup. Now, as players like Zetterberg, Franzen and Kronwall age, the bill is coming due, though it’s slightly less painful because Franzen is on long-term injured reserve.
Howard has played really well this season, which should allow the Red Wings to get out of that contract at some point via trade, but the challenge will be building a winner as Zetterberg and Kronwall decline while taking up so much cap space.
“Ken Holland is as good a general manager as there is in the National Hockey League,” said the exec. “He should have known the implications of those deals.”
Inflated cap hits
Daniel Sedin and Henrik Sedin
Total cap hit: $14 million
Total projected value: $12 million
Legacy cost: $2 million
Alex Burrows
Total cap hit: $4.5 million
Total projected value: $1.5 million
Legacy cost: $3 million
Alexander Edler
Total cap hit: $5 million
Total projected value: $3 million
Legacy cost: $2 million
Roberto Luongo
Retained salary: $800,000
Total legacy cost: $7.8 million
Conclusion: The Sedins can still play on our team any day, but the decline is happening. Henrik, for example, has seen his points-per-game rate drop from 0.94 in 2012-13 to 0.64 this season. In 2011-12, Daniel Sedin averaged 0.42 goals per game. That’s down to 0.28 this season. The Luongo contract has actually turned out to be a pretty good contract. There’s high risk in signing a goalie to that kind of term, but the fact that Luongo is still playing at a high level suggests Vancouver’s faith in his was well placed (though he's been a Florida Panther since March 5, 2014). The "Kovalchuk tail" on the Luongo contract kicks in after next season, when the actual salary drops to $3.38 million in 2018-19 to $1.618 in 2019-20 and then $1 million per season in the final two years of the deal.