It’s not that Artemi Panarin ever gave us any reason to doubt his ability to repeat last season’s monster debut. But it’s always good to get reassurance, which he provided once again this weekend.
Panarin scored in each of the Chicago Blackhawks’ games, providing the only offense Chicago managed to generate in losses to the Philadelphia Flyers and Winnipeg Jets.
The goals put him on pace for 30 this season, with his point total tracking close to the 77 he posted in winning the Calder as top rookie last season. The 25-year-old Russian is now very much in the middle of his prime and becomes an important part of the future for an aging Blackhawks core.
The next step is securing him for that future.
The board of governors are meeting this week in West Palm Beach, Florida, and according to an NHL source, the owners will get a “very approximate” first look at what the 2017-18 salary cap will look like.
This is a cap number that has ended up being optimistic the last couple of seasons. Last December, the NHL projected a salary cap of $74.5 million for this season. The cap ended up being $73 million. As always, the decision whether or not to use the escalator will play a big part in how much the number grows. Right now, it’s hard to see a scenario where the cap jumps considerably higher than its current number.
“There’s nothing on the horizon [to increase revenue],” said one source. “They have long-term TV deals in the United States and Canada in place. The sponsorships are in place. Tickets are already being sold at a relatively high rate.”
For the Blackhawks and Panarin, this projection becomes an important number because it will go a long way in determining his next contract, after his current one expires following this season.
It would be fair to describe contract talks between Panarin and the Blackhawks as neither stalled nor imminent. Put another way, there isn’t a huge rush to get this one done because of the moving parts involved. If GM Stan Bowman decides Panarin is part of this team’s core and locks him up long term, that likely means another part of the core has to go. That’s not an easy trade to make, and it's not one that’s likely made during the season.
But if the Blackhawks prefer to get the Panarin deal done in order to provide cost certainty moving forward, there have been a few deals struck that have helped shape the market for a player like him.
The most recent deal that helps shape the next Panarin deal is the one signed by Johnny Gaudreau in early October. He and the Calgary Flames settled on a six-year contract worth $6.75 million per season.
That contract gives the Blackhawks and Panarin’s camp a nice range of contracts for comparable wingers to project a potential Panarin contract.
If the preference is to go max term, there’s Vladimir Tarasenko, who signed an eight-year deal worth $7.5 million per season. Gaudreau provides a mid-level term comparable. For a potential bridge contract, the two sides can look to Tampa Bay, where Nikita Kucherov signed a three-year deal worth $4.766 million annually that looks better by the day for the Lightning (at least until the next contract has to be signed). That contract is team-friendly, and signed by a player who was squeezed into a contract structure of an organization trying to win a Stanley Cup. For Kucherov, there was no path to a reasonable long-term deal with the Lightning at this point.
The reality is that Panarin, if he wants to stay in Chicago, also is going to have to concede money to make it work. The situation isn’t all that far off from what happened in Tampa.
The Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews deals are healthy, at $10.5 million per season, but both players left money on the table when they signed them. At the time, the salary cap was rising considerably each year. Either player would have earned $12 million per season on the open market.
Duncan Keith has one of the most team-friendly contracts in the NHL. It might be the best deal in the league, signed when those kind of extended-term deals were still allowable.
“The reason they’re able to operate is because of the Keith contract,” said one agent. “They should be paying him a lot more.”
There’s no way Panarin gets full value with the Blackhawks, something he certainly has to understand. The question becomes: How much is he willing to sacrifice?
Even if he signs a Tarasenko-like deal, you could argue that he’s giving the Blackhawks a break.
According to section 10.1 of the CBA, and confirmed by multiple sources, Panarin is two seasons away from becoming an unrestricted free agent, which would be heading into the 2019-20 season. So, an eight-year deal that kicks in next season buys out six years of unrestricted free agency compared to, say, the one year of unrestricted free agency the Gaudreau deal bought the Flames. The Tarasenko deal, even at eight years, only bought out four years of unrestricted free agency.
That’s significant.
“The most important thing is years of UFA,” said an agent unaffiliated with this negotiation.
That gives Panarin’s camp an argument that his annual value should be higher, although the counter from Chicago is that he’s older, and an eight-year deal starts moving him away from his prime.
The other advantage is that Panarin has been the most productive of all the comparables at this point in his career.
In his first 107 games, Panarin is averaging 0.37 goals per game, production that was better than Gaudreau's (0.31 goals per game through his first 81 games), Kucherov's (0.28 goals per game through first two seasons) and Tarasenko's (0.28 goals per game through two seasons).
Panarin came into the league a finished product, and his statistical history shows it. For example, Tarasenko didn’t take off until year three, when he scored 37 goals at age 23.
As for points, Panarin is averaging 0.93 points per game so far in his career, with Gaudreau the closest of this foursome to reach that number. Gaudreau is currently at 0.88 points per game.
Blackhawks GM Stan Bowman has proven he’s willing to move talented young players if they don’t fit into the salary structure, and Panarin understands the value of playing for the Blackhawks. That’s why he picked them in the first place.
His next deal will quantify just how much he values it.