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Trade Grades: Predators come out ahead in Subban-Weber swap

By adding P.K. Subban to a blue line that already includes Roman Josi, Mattias Ekholm and Ryan Ellis, the Predators have a defensive group built for the new NHL. Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

The deal

Nashville Predators get: Defenseman P.K. Subban

Montreal Canadiens get: Defenseman Shea Weber


Canadiens: B

This is complicated. The Canadiens sent a rare talent they had locked up long-term for a player whose skills are slowly diminishing.

But this is about winning right now, and winning big. You do that with a player like Shea Weber, 30, and if you’re Canadiens GM Marc Bergevin you have to know you’re doing it at the risk of looking bad in this deal four or five years down the line.

This trade, on some level, is about intangibles. Weber is an Olympic gold-medal winner. He’s a guy Team Canada coach Mike Babcock considers in his leadership brain trust with Jonathan Toews and Sidney Crosby.

When you talk to coaches and general managers, Weber is a guy they’d consider building around right now.

Said one former teammate on Wednesday: “That’s a great trade for Montreal. He’s a hell of a teammate and a hell of a guy. He’s a quiet leader, but when he talks, everyone listens. He brings everything to the table. There’s not a lot of holes in his game.”

There was speculation that Subban’s act sometimes wore thin with teammates in Montreal, and that won’t be the case at all with Weber. He’ll go out there with his big shot and physical play and help lead the charge. He’ll play the right way. He’s a guy you send out on the ice in the biggest moments and feel completely comfortable with protecting the lead. He’s the guy getting big minutes on Team Canada, the hardest team in the world to make. Subban is the guy on the outside looking in.

Weber is a bona fide No. 1 defenseman in the league. He’s a franchise guy. He’s everything you want in a player.

Hockey people love him. The first two scouts reached following this trade ruled it a win for Montreal.

“That’s a great trade for Montreal,” said an NHL scout.

“Great deal,” agreed another. “A great, great deal for Montreal.”

The problem is that Weber’s on-ice play is on the decline. It’s not only on the decline, but he comes with a salary-cap hit of $7.86 million through 2026. Nashville is dealing him at the perfect time. This contract is going to be a problem at some point for the Canadiens and that day might come sooner than they want.

“He’s not up the ice anymore,” said one Eastern Conference coach. “He’s not as dangerous offensively. I don’t ever see him skate, [Roman Josi] does all the skating and transition work now. ... Still the better player right now is Weber. The better player in two years is Subban.”


Predators: A

How about this defense?

The Predators have Roman Josi, P.K. Subban, Mattias Ekholm and Ryan Ellis, and the oldest of that group is Subban at 27 years old. At a time when the game is evolving to a speed and transition game, the addition of Subban gives Nashville one of the best in the game.

He’s one of the most dynamic defensemen in the game, and with Josi and his ability to move the puck, it’s hard to imagine Nashville spending too much time in the defensive zone.

“I like the trade for Nashville going forward,” said another executive. “P.K. brings more offense than Weber will to Montreal. He can impact the game more.”

Subban comes with flaws. He’ll try to make plays at times that will drive coach Peter Laviolette crazy, and occasionally do it at an inopportune time.

“There’s a risk associated with Subban, but oh my god, he’s so good,” said an Eastern Conference executive after the deal. “He works. He competes. He wants to win. His personality is different, but he’s not alone in the National Hockey League in having a personality that is different. He is alone in the NHL in his ability to dominate physically with his skating, skill and size.”

The executive put it this way, and it’s a great way to assess both the frustrations with Subban and the infatuation with Subban.

Subban is the more dynamic player. When he’s on, he’s a 10 out of 10.

“The best Subban trumps the best Weber,” he explained.

He has the ability to be a 10 out of 10, but he’s not always a 10 out of 10. That’s the problem.

“Sometimes he’s a riverboat gambler,” he said.

Whereas Weber is an 8.5 out of 10. He’s always an 8.5. You know exactly what you’re getting in every moment.

“He’s 8.5 the whole day long,” the executive said.

That has immense value.

The head coach summed it up this way: “Long term, this deal is won by Nashville. Short term, it’s won by Montreal.”