In some ways, the run the Tampa Bay Lightning put together this season was even more impressive than last spring’s trip to the Stanley Cup finals. They fell one game short of a return, losing 2-1 to the Pittsburgh Penguins in Game 7, but they did all but one game of it without their captain, and partially without their Vezina Trophy-caliber goalie. This group is special -- there's no doubt about it -- and if they can stay relatively intact and healthy, they will eventually get back to the finals.
The success this spring, with the partial absences of Steven Stamkos and Ben Bishop specifically, may impact how general manager Steve Yzerman approaches the offseason. Here’s a look at what Tampa Bay’s summer priorities should be:
1. Settle the Stamkos situation
There’s a temptation to say that the Lightning succeeded without Stamkos, so they should let him walk in free agency. But what’s the measure of success? They still fell short of the ultimate goal. There’s no doubt the Lightning are a better team with him in the lineup, and during a time in which goal scoring is harder than ever, Yzerman should make an effort to sign him within the confines of a deal that works for the team.
With new contracts on the horizon for guys like Victor Hedman, Tyler Johnson and Nikita Kucherov, the Lightning simply can’t afford to pay Stamkos like the Blackhawks paid Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane ($10.5 million in average annual value). They probably can’t do Anze Kopitar money either ($10 million AAV). But maybe there’s a way to convince Stamkos to stay in Tampa Bay with an eight-year deal worth around $9 million per season. The hard reality is that anything north of that just doesn’t make sense for the Lightning, and they’d have to let him walk. And even $9 million in AAV might be tough to pull off. The Lightning are the only team that can sign him to an eight-year deal, so that’s a bit of leverage. If he hits the market, he’s getting only seven. Tampa Bay could do a sign-and-trade, too, if that works for everyone, but it would have to be worth it to them.
Yzerman can make a case that Stamkos has the best shot at winning a Stanley Cup if he takes less to stay in Tampa Bay. There’s also a tax advantage to staying in Florida that could wipe out any additional salary he earns by signing in Canada.
He’s said repeatedly that he wants to stay, and Yzerman has said repeatedly that he wants to sign him. It just has to make sense for both sides, and for it to make sense for the Lightning he would have to take less to stay. Maybe significantly less.
2. Sign Kucherov to a long-term deal
One of the positives that emerged from Stamkos’ absence from the Lightning’s lineup during the postseason was the emergence of Kucherov as a bona fide star. For the second consecutive postseason, he’s been one of the most proficient goal scorers in the playoffs, and he established himself as a key contributor on a great team.
The downside, if you can call it that, is that he has driven up his price in the process. He’s a restricted free agent who is going to need a big deal this summer.
“They should have signed him to an extension before the season,” said one agent, who doesn’t represent him. “But who knew? He’s been amazing.”
Coming off a 37-goal season in which he scored another six in the playoffs, the Blues signed Vladimir Tarasenko to an eight-year contract worth $7.5 million per season (last summer). Kucherov had fewer goals (30) during the regular season, but has 22 goals in his first 44 playoff games. He’s also more of a complete player than Tarasenko, so it’s hard to imagine the Kucherov camp asking for much less.
3. Consider trading Bishop (and keep Jonathan Drouin)
The Drouin turn is an amazing one, and with salaries skyrocketing in Tampa Bay for the next few years, he becomes more valuable than ever to the Lightning, since he’s still on his entry-level deal for one more season.
The silver lining to Bishop’s injury is that it gave Andrei Vasilevskiy an opportunity to prove that he’s ready for a bigger role on this team, and the returns were promising. Bishop is one of the league’s best goalies, but the Lightning won’t be able to keep both of them if there is an expansion draft coming. Bishop is also 29 years old and another player who is due a raise when his contract expires after next season.
If the Flames, Stars, Hurricanes and Maple Leafs are aggressively looking to upgrade their goaltending, they should start with a call to Yzerman. One of Yzerman’s biggest strengths is his ability to manage the long term while also fielding an elite team. Trading Bishop now would bring potential young assets that will pay off down the road while providing an opportunity to their young goalie. According to generalfanager.com, Bishop has a no-movement clause, so he’ll have a say in this, too. A Bishop trade is not an easy deal to make, but it may be a necessary one in the cap system.