Top 10 third basemen in MLB

Buster OlneyNov 29, 2015, 10:00 AM ET

Josh Donaldson has the kind of intense personality that generates allegory. Before he became a star, Jonny Gomes talked about how Donaldson would be a star because, on top of his physical talent, he was relentless about getting better. He asked questions, Gomes said, and he listened, and adjusted and adapted.

After the Oakland Athletics shifted Donaldson from catcher to third base, a rival evaluator who saw Donaldson's first days at the position thought he wouldn't last. The improvements he had to make, the evaluator decided, couldn't happen at a position that requires such a high degree of skill and timing. A few months later, the same evaluator watched Donaldson at third base again and couldn't believe how much he had improved in such a short time. "He must've worked his ass off," the evaluator said.

Donaldson tops our ranking of the top 10 third basemen -- we've already ranked starting pitchers, relievers, first basemen and second basemen -- just weeks after winning the American League Most Valuable Player Award.

1. Josh Donaldson, Toronto Blue Jays

Josh Donaldson Here's one example of what Gomes was talking about: When Donaldson was in his first season in Oakland, he swung and missed a lot -- he whiffed on 13.6 percent of his swings -- largely because he tended to hack at stuff outside the strike zone. His discipline has improved dramatically since then, such that his rate of swinging at pitches outside the zone declined from 31.3 percent in 2013 to 24.7 percent in 2014 and further improved this season. With that, he has made a whole lot more contact for damage; he had 84 extra-base hits in 2015, and his slugging percentage rocketed to .568 from .398 in 2012.

Only three players amassed more than 7.4 WAR in 2015 (FanGraphs' version): Bryce Harper at 9.5, Mike Trout at 9.0 and Donaldson at 8.7. He is the sixth third baseman in history to win the MVP, and has separated himself as the best at the position.

2. Nolan Arenado, Colorado Rockies

Nolan Arenado The first thing a rival executive does when a Rockies player puts up big numbers is check the home/road splits, which, fair or not, are seen as something of a barometer of what's real and what's not.

Arenado at home in 2015, in the thin air of Denver: 20 homers, 17 walks, 55 strikeouts.

Arenado on the road in 2015: 22 homers, 17 walks, 55 strikeouts.

There was a distinct difference in Arenado's batting average at home versus on the road, .316 to .258, but whether it's in Colorado or in Dodger Stadium or San Francisco, Arenado is a steady source of power and ridiculously good defense. (Here's a highlight package of his defensive work, in case you'd like a refresher.)

3. Manny Machado, Baltimore Orioles

Manny Machado As with Arenado, Machado's offensive production is destined to be viewed by evaluators through the prism of his home ballpark, and yes, Machado does better at home: He had 21 homers and a .915 OPS last season at Camden Yards while hitting 14 homers and amassing an .809 OPS on the road. But Machado is only 23 years old, and despite working his way through two major knee injuries -- doctors have told him that the congenital structural issue he had should be behind him -- he continues to get better, posting 66 extra-base hits and 70 walks in '15.

As for his defense, well, he and Arenado will probably battle for the title of best defensive third baseman of this generation. Watch the sequence of charge-and-throw plays he makes in this reel, starting at about the 1:00 mark, and try to think of somebody who does this better.

4. Matt Carpenter, St. Louis Cardinals

Matt Carpenter He has become known as one of the best technical hitters of this era, and maybe that's why we shouldn't be surprised that his power numbers jumped like they did in 2015, to 28 homers. Carpenter's understanding of the strike zone and ability to work a count and pick out a pitch to drive is like something out of the 1990s. When he put the ball in play on 1-0 counts last season, he was 9-for-26 (.346 average) with two doubles and a homer, and on 2-0 counts, he went 5-for-8 (.625) with two doubles and a homer. He ranked third among National Leaguers in pitches per plate appearance.

Carpenter had a league-high 44 doubles and three triples along with those homers, and drew 81 walks. (And he would've reached base even more if he wasn't consistently a victim of missed calls, as we detailed in September.) He has scored 326 runs over the past three seasons.

5. Kris Bryant, Chicago Cubs

Kris Bryant In time, he will be at the top of this list; if you wanted to turn this into a futures bet, Bryant would be your guy thanks to his ridiculous power and good approach at the plate. As one Cubs staffer noted, Bryant never had the typical advantage afforded almost every rookie because he was pitched to like he was a star from his first day in the big leagues. Bryant drew three walks in his second game in the majors and 17 walks before even hitting his first homer, and it was during that time that we learned just how disciplined he can be at the plate, and that the relatively inexperienced hitter relied on a plan.

I was surprised Bryant didn't get a few more fringe votes for the MVP Award -- more spots at No. 8, 9 or 10 on ballots. He'll get a lot of first-place votes eventually.

6. Mike Moustakas, Kansas City Royals

Mike Moustakas Statistical analysis has become the backbone of the sport and will forever dictate decisions, but it can neither account for nor necessarily predict the impact of change in players like Donaldson and Moustakas. For years, Royals staffers had talked to him about the value of using the whole field at the plate, the sort of message that is often ignored by young hitters in the way that brush-your-teeth warnings are by kids. Moustakas could've fallen into that trap, and there was a time in his career when it was unclear whether he would ever become a good major league player. In 2014, Moustakas struggled so badly that he was shipped to the minors with a .152 batting average.

But Moustakas changed, to his great credit, and as a result, he will go down in Kansas City lore along with organizational legends. Spraying the ball from line to line in 2015, Moustakas batted .284 with 57 extra-base hits.

He ranks in the top half of third basemen in defensive runs saved as well.

7. Adrian Beltre, Texas Rangers

Adrian Beltre You would never teach a Little Leaguer to throw like Beltre does, with his feet pointing at weird angles and his arm angle changing from throw to throw. But even as an ancient, Beltre continues to do very well in terms of defensive metrics: He and Arenado tied in defensive runs saved in 2015 even though Beltre played 124 fewer innings.

And Beltre, a future Hall of Famer who will turn 37 in April, had a strong season at the plate in spite of a painful thumb injury, batting .287 with 18 homers among 54 extra-base hits. He will enter the 2016 season only 233 hits from 3,000 in his career, 71 runs from 1,400, and 33 RBIs from 1,500.

8. Matt Duffy, San Francisco Giants

Matt Duffy There's a compelling case for Duffy to be higher on this list, and maybe some of the evaluators who chimed in for this just haven't seen him enough to rank him ahead of the likes of Beltre. But in 2015, Duffy was fifth in WAR at this position, after taking over for Casey McGehee early in the year.

9. Kyle Seager, Seattle Mariners

Kyle Seager The Mariners struggled to find consistency all season, but Seager pitched in along the same lines he has in the past, including a .779 OPS and a 118 Adjusted OPS+, which accounts for the disadvantage of hitting in Seattle's home park.

10. Todd Frazier, Cincinnati Reds

Todd Frazier He finished 2015 with 79 extra-base hits, including 35 homers, and had arguably one of the greatest moments of the summer in the Home Run Derby in Cincinnati. What I'll always remember about that was how opposing players stuck around to watch and cheer for him, like fans.

Toughest to leave out

• The Phillies' Maikel Franco, who will be an All-Star in the seasons ahead. He had 37 extra-base hits in his first 80 games and demonstrated good command of the strike zone.

• The Rays' Evan Longoria, who hit .270 with 21 homers and 57 extra-base hits in 160 games.

• Martin Prado, the Marlins veteran who had a WAR of 3.1.

• Justin Turner, who served as a semi-regular for the Dodgers and racked up an .861 OPS.

• Anthony Rendon is likely to return to third base for the Nationals, and he'll be part of this list again next year.

Pondering in Pittsburgh

J.A. Happ is leaving the Pirates, writes Bill Brink, and in the days ahead, the team has difficult financial decisions to make on Neil Walker and Mark Melancon.

The Pirates have become a great success in baseball, but as with the Tampa Bay Rays, there will never be a time when they will luxuriate in their self-created riches. They will never be the team that identifies a pitcher who can be fixed, as the Pirates did with Happ, then bestow that player with an above-market deal to keep him. They will always be a team that counts nickels because it has to, in order to sustain success, because the Pirates' front office doesn't have budgetary margin for error. There must be significant return on each dollar, because if there isn't, they don't have the cash that the Cardinals or the Cubs, their division rivals, have to paper over mistakes.

To extend the hometown product Walker with a multiyear deal would feel good, and would be a popular move today. But in whichever way the Pirates make their forecasts on players, they've assessed Walker, and for them -- and not necessarily for all teams -- there's some question about whether his production can meet the expectation of what they need from him based on what his place in their payroll structure would be.

The Pirates have gotten to the place where they've made the postseason in three straight seasons and have been raided perhaps more than any other organization personnel-wise because they've remained very disciplined, and it would be a surprise if they deviate from that discipline for Walker.

Here's a great example of a pitcher they could target: Trevor Cahill. He's looking for only a one-year deal, isn't going to be that expensive and is looking for just an opportunity to start, which is different from being assured of a rotation spot. The Pirates could provide that, and then provide the career-rehabilitation work for which they have become renowned. The Cubs, Indians and a handful of other teams could also be in play for Cahill.

Notables

• Mike Hessman had a long and great baseball career.

• The bidding for David Price could reach $210 million over seven years.

• The Tigers' shopping for starting pitching could get pricy, writes Anthony Fenech.

• The Blue Jays will work to create some depth in the weeks ahead because they don't have a lot at the Triple-A level, but the construction on the major league team is all but done, meaning Toronto will see whether unforeseen opportunities develop through the winter.

Toronto is betting that J.A. Happ's turnaround is for real.

• Discussions have been slow to develop this winter, and Joel Sherman wonders if this is because teams have learned.

I'd bet it's more about a group of teams that are sort of like teenagers at a dance: Nobody wants to be the first onto the floor. Now that Happ has signed for three years and $36 million, market parameters are beginning to take shape.

• The Orioles will need to get a hometown discount in order to sign Chris Davis, writes Dan Connolly.