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Lefty hitters are at called-strike disadvantage

The evidence suggests Matt Carpenter has reason to be upset about called strikes this season. AP Images/Ross D. Franklin

Left-handed hitters have always been the blessed sons of baseball. The construction of the game favors them, generally, because the placement of first base on the right side of the diamond allows them to follow through with their swings, in an easy flow of mechanics, before they drop their bat deftly and begin their journey on the baseline directly.

This is probably the reason why left-handed swings are more picturesque than the hacks of right-handed hitters, who must apply the brakes to their swing after contact and reverse the momentum of their bodies before they can begin to run to first.

For the most part right-handed hitters take more time running to first base than left-handed hitters. They also are more likely to hit into double plays and much less likely to win batting titles. Left-handed hitters often have the advantage of being able to fluidly aim for the first-base hole whenever a runner is perched at first base, because the first baseman is anchored to the base.

Ty Cobb was a left-handed hitter. So were Babe Ruth, Tony Gwynn, Ted Williams, Ken Griffey Jr. and Rafael Palmeiro -- those with the prettiest swings on the planet. Ernie Lombardi, appropriately, was a right-handed hitter.

But as more accurate technology for assessing baseball’s strike zone becomes available, it’s becoming increasing evident that left-handed hitters are at significant disadvantage when it comes to the ball-strike interpretation of umpires.

Recently, ESPN Stats & Information generated a note about how the St. Louis Cardinals’ Matt Carpenter -- a left-handed hitter -- has had more pitches called strikes that were actually out of the strike zone, according to the zone data is now available.

I mentioned this to a longtime executive, who responded with this thought: There is probably a consistent factor that tilts the strike zone equation against left-handed hitters. Because all catchers are right-handed, he noted, their gloved hands -- their left hands -- allow them to more gracefully and effectively frame pitches off the outside corner to left-handed hitters. They can smoothly catch the ball on the edge of the strike zone, or just off the edge, and present it to the umpire for his consideration, like a thief quietly picking a lock.

On the other hand, if a catcher wants to frame pitches outside to right-handed hitters, they have to reach across their body, which is the baseball equivalent of breaking and entering with a crowbar; there’s nothing subtle about it.

It was an interesting observation, and the numbers that support this theory are overwhelming. According to the information dug out by Michael Bonzagni and Justin Havens of Baseball Tonight, those hitters who bat left-handed, either all the time or as switch-hitters, will have a higher percentage of strikes called on pitches out of the zone.

Here are the top 30 hitters who have had the highest percentage of pitches out of the strike zone called strikes:

So the first right-handed hitter who appears on the list is at No. 28 overall, Addison Russell.

For pure volume:

In fact, the first right-handed hitter who appears on the list for most pitches out of the zone called strikes is at No. 21 overall:

Twenty-two players batting left-handed have taken 80 or more pitches thrown out of the strike zone that were called strikes. Exactly one player batting right-handed has taken 80-plus pitches thrown out of the strike zone that were called strikes -- Bautista, with 82.

Right-handed hitters, as you would expect, comprise most of the bottom 10 who have taken the lowest percentage of strike calls on pitches out of the zone:

The Cardinals have played 133 games this season, and Carpenter has had 139 pitches that were out of the zone called strikes. So in practical terms, Carpenter has an at-bat altered by a missed strike call once a game. On the other hand, almost all right-handed batters have a much lower percentage of their at-bats affected in this way.

Pitchers could take away something instructive from all of this: Presumably, they will have a better chance at getting strike calls inside to right-handed batters and away from left-handed hitters.

But this dynamic seems incredibly serendipitous. The numbers suggest that from the moment Carpenter first picked up a bat and started swinging left-handed, the odds of him having strikes called on pitches outside of the zone were greater than those of Giancarlo Stanton.

If Major League Baseball ever goes to an automated strike zone, this would be one of the reasons why.


Notables

• On Thursday’s podcast, Jayson Stark discussed fan safety, the NL Cy Young Award, some unusual handling of Dellin Betances and Andrew Miller, and Matt Harvey’s innings limits; and Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald discussed what’s to come for the Marlins.

Corey Seager made his debut and had a good night, in what was a tough loss for the Dodgers. He was terrific, as Dylan Hernandez writes. The Dodgers’ bullpen blew it. Sounds like Mat Latos might not make many more starts for the Dodgers.

• If anybody needs a reason to consider Bryce Harper for the MVP, even though it appears the Nationals won’t make the playoffs, then read this.

He saw 20 pitches Thursday night without swinging, the second most for any hitter in a game in the past 10 seasons, and you could win a bar bet over who has had the most.

From ESPN Stats & Information:

Jordan Zimmermann threw well, as Chelsea Janes writes. The Nationals crushed the Braves thanks to Ryan Zimmerman continuing his red-hot streak.

Alex Cora and Pedro Gomez discuss whether Seager, the Dodgers' top prospect, can make an impact immediately.

Evan Grant writes about how the Rangers got the attention of Elvis Andrus, who has been a disappointing player overall.

From his story:

Here’s what he heard coming out of the All-Star break this year from third base coach Tony Beasley, who also has worked closely with the infielders: “You are not a very good shortstop right now.”

In those exact words.

It came on the heels of Beasley asking Andrus who his role models were among shortstops. Andrus responded with Omar Vizquel and Derek Jeter.

“We talked about ultimately what he wants to be and what he wants his career to look like,” Beasley said. “We talked about how he wants to be perceived and how he is perceived. I told him that he’s better than this. I challenged him to be better.”

Andrus heard.

“Sometimes you have to hear things that hurt your ego, but you need to hear them,” Andrus said. “He brought a different view to it. It was something that I was missing. I’m glad he said something and that we’ve worked on fixing it.”

Cora previews the big showdown between the Rangers and Angels.

Tim Lincecum had hip surgery, as John Shea writes.

It’s possible that Lincecum has thrown his last inning for the Giants, and it might even be possible he has thrown his last inning in the big leagues. Even as he comes back from surgery, there will be real questions about whether he’s almost out of ammunition, given the regression in his fastball since he broke into the major leagues.

But it might simply come down to price. If Lincecum offers himself as a minimum-wage type of opportunity to the Giants, to maintain his ties to the organization, would they say no?

I doubt it. But as Lincecum works his way back, does he want to work for relative pennies? He has demonstrated in past contract negotiations that he never has been devoted to extracting every nickel, but does he want to fight for a bullpen job or rotation spot for little pay? We’ll see.

From Shea’s story:

Where? Is a return to the Giants a possibility, even on a minor-league deal that would give him a chance to re-establish himself?

“My door will always be open for Tim Lincecum. That’s how much I think of him,” manager Bruce Bochy said. “That’s a decision that’s made on the baseball side, obviously with everybody. I appreciate what he’s done and the time I’ve had to this point with him. It doesn’t mean that won’t continue. I can’t answer that right now.”

Giants CEO Larry Baer said Lincecum’s contributions have been “endless, and no one knows that more than the Giants.” No Lincecum appreciation day is planned because that would presume he won’t return to San Francisco in 2016.

“At this point, no one’s ruling anything out,” Baer said. “I don’t think Timmy is ruling it out, and I don’t think we’re ruling it out.”

Meanwhile: The Giants’ collapse continues.

• The Royals let Billy Butler walk in free agency before the season and instead signed Kendrys Morales. Morales has outperformed Butler this season and has proved to be a bargain.

Francisco Liriano struggled to find the strike zone and the Pirates were swept in Milwaukee.

Pittsburgh is 21-32 vs. NL Central teams this season, 58-21 vs. all others, and the Pirates start a three-game series in St. Louis on Friday night, with virtually no margin for error in the division race. Pittsburgh is six games behind the Cardinals in the loss column (and four games ahead of the Cubs).

The Cardinals are preparing to get a lot of guys back from the disabled list, writes Derrick Goold. Clint Hurdle admires the resilience of the Cardinals.

• The Twins are hanging in there, but they squandered an early lead without Miguel Sano in the lineup.


Moves, deals and decisions

1. The Pirates and Marlins could play a series in Puerto Rico.

2. The Indians are making some roster moves.

3. Dan Jennings is still the manager.

4. Kevin Kiermaier could merit a long-term deal, writes Marc Topkin.


Dings and dents

1. Marcus Stroman is pumped for his return to the Blue Jays.

2. A couple of Royals seem to be getting better as they recover from chickenpox, writes Andy McCullough.

3. Dylan Bundy has been cleared to throw.

4. Jose Iglesias hurt his finger.

5. Jake Odorizzi is ready to mix it up.


Thursday's games

1. Lorenzo Cain and the Royals frolicked.

2. The Brewers have had inexplicable mastery of a division rival.

3. Jeff Samardzija got back into the win column.

4. The Braves were blown out again, and have lost nine in a row.

5. Carlos Gonzalez continues to build trade value. He’s proving doubters wrong.


NL East

• The 2015 Mets are not the 2007 Mets, writes Marc Carig.

• The Mets are staring at the possibility they could face Clayton Kershaw and the Dodgers, writes Bob Klapisch.

• The pieces are in place for the Phillies to become contenders, writes Ryan Lawrence.


NL Central

• Joey Votto’s second half is historic, writes C. Trent Rosecrans.

Kris Bryant and Justin Grimm went to the Bears game.


NL West

• The Dodgers are closing in on the postseason with a $300 million payroll and no guarantees, writes Tyler Kepner.

Welington Castillo thought about quitting baseball, writes Zach Buchanan.

• A new Padres pitcher beat cancer.


AL East

Jackie Bradley Jr. has found a solution, writes Peter Abraham.

• Richard Griffin breaks down the Yankees and Blue Jays.

Josh Donaldson is a madman, superhero or a dirtbag, Ken Fidlin writes.

Didi Gregorius is playing great, as John Harper writes.

• If the Orioles let Chris Davis go, they’ll lose more than power, writes Peter Schmuck.


AL West

• Brad Miller’s focus is on playing center field, writes Ryan Divish.

• The Angels are closing in on drawing 3 million again.

• The Angels' focus is in the process.

• Oakland has slowed the running game of opponents.

Stephen Vogt has had a roller-coaster season, writes John Hickey. You wonder if his trade value – which might’ve been at its highest in May or June – has been undercut.

The Astros’ rotation has shined, writes Jesus Ortiz.

• The Rangers’ goal should be to catch the Astros, writes Kevin Sherrington.


Lastly

• Vanderbilt’s opener did not go well.

And today will be better than yesterday.