An exciting playoff stretch awaits in the 2025 PBA Philippine Cup, with all eyes on TNT Tropang 5G as they chase the elusive Grand Slam in this season.
But their path won't be easy.
Several teams are eager to prove they can challenge them, especially in this all-Filipino tournament.
Here's a closer look at how the four quarterfinal matchups stack up against each other.
1. San Miguel Beermen vs 8. Meralco Bolts
The rematch of last season's epic Philippine Cup finals comes in early, with San Miguel looking for payback armed with a twice-to-beat advantage against defending champions Meralco. The main talking point for this series will be about the resistance that Meralco can put up against June Mar Fajardo, who has made San Miguel the best shooting team inside the arc at 54.8% in the elimination round. Will the improved Meralco defense in the last three games -- of 83.3 points per game allowed -- continue? That remains to be seen.
What happened in the eliminations: Fajardo and CJ Perez took center stage in the league's 50th anniversary game, combining for 57 points to lift San Miguel to a convincing 110-98 win over Meralco. San Miguel imposed their will inside, converting 64.8% of their two-point attempts, while Meralco struggled mightily from deep, finishing a woeful 3-of-24 for just 12.5% from 3.
X-factor for San Miguel: CJ Perez
It's easy to highlight Don Trollano's scoring punch off the bench or Mo Tautuaa's viability as a crunch-time stretch four as potential X-factors for San Miguel. But the spotlight inevitably shifts to Perez, whose offensive workload looms large in this series against Meralco.
San Miguel has handed Perez the keys as their primary ballhandler to initiate sets and control tempo. Numbers of 23.4 points, 5.5 rebounds, and 4.3 assists per game on an efficient 58.9 TS% cement his status as one of the league's premier talents. However, running the point full-time doesn't feel natural to Perez. He can be erratic in decision-making, often driving headlong into traffic without a clear lane, struggling to feed entry passes to Fajardo in the post or settling for tough, low-percentage shots. The 2.4 turnovers per game reflect those tendencies, and in their lone elimination-round matchup against Meralco, he committed five miscues -- mistakes that could turn into transition opportunities for the opposition.
Options at the point guard spot remain limited. Chris Ross, while still steady, has clearly lost a step. Kris Rosales may not yet be ready for extended minutes under playoff pressure, and Juami Tiongson is better suited as a floor spacer within San Miguel's post-centric attack. That puts even more emphasis on Perez to strike the right balance to limit his mistakes, control the pace, and stay composed because when he's locked in, few can match his impact on the offensive end.
X-factor for Meralco: Chris Banchero
The importance of Meralco's bigs cannot be highlighted more, with the daunting task to neutralize Fajardo as much as possible. Yet, there could be another pressure point to attack the eight-time Most Valuable Player, which Chris Banchero can do best in Meralco's roster
Banchero missed Meralco's elimination round game against San Miguel due to injury, but a look back at that matchup reveals something telling: both Chris Newsome and reserve guard Kurt Reyson found success exploiting San Miguel's drop coverage in pick-and-roll situations. Fajardo, naturally more comfortable staying deep rather than showing at the level of the screen, often gives ballhandlers ample space to operate. That's exactly where Banchero can be effective. With his pull-up jumper and quick decision-making, he's built to punish drop coverage and potentially force San Miguel to rethink their defensive schemes.
Averaging 14.7 points, 3.9 rebounds, and 2.9 assists on a solid 57.7 TS%, Banchero has enough scoring punch to be a threat. But the key swing factor will be his playmaking -- can he consistently find and activate his bigs on the roll to keep Fajardo in uncomfortable defensive positions? If Banchero can strike that balance, it could tilt the series in Meralco's favor.
Prediction: San Miguel in one. The way San Miguel has set up their team, with shooters around Fajardo, should be too much for Meralco's defense.
2. NLEX Road Warriors vs 7. Rain or Shine Elasto Painters
The battle between two squads that utilize a more spread-out unit or simply a 5-out centric offense promises to be a tricky encounter. The key will be which team dictates the pace, with Rain or Shine aiming to win the possession game -- evidenced by their 106.3 points per game, which is the second-best in the league. On the other hand, NLEX will rely on their strong shot selection and deliberateness, ranking second in three-point percentage at 36.1% and third in true shooting percentage at 58%.
What happened in the eliminations: NLEX got its jumpstart win of 109-95 against Rain or Shine, which started their great conference run. Even in a low volume, NLEX was able to drain 11 triples on an impressive 61.1% clip -- with rookie Xyrus Torres leading the way as he went 5-6 from beyond the arc.
X-factor for NLEX: Javee Mocon
Limiting Rain or Shine's transition game starts with two fundamentals: taking care of the ball and controlling the glass. While NLEX doesn't have the size advantage to dominate the boards outright, they do have a relentless workhorse in Javee Mocon -- someone who could be crucial in slowing down their fastbreak game and can be trusted in defending in the half court.
Throughout the conference, Rain or Shine ranks fourth in total rebounds and third in defensive boards, which directly fuels their up-tempo style. Interestingly, NLEX is nearly neck-and-neck with them in offensive rebounding, averaging 11.5 to Rain or Shine's 11.6 -- but got dominated 17-9 in their elimination round game. And since Rain or Shine is known to run even off made baskets, the better gamble might be to crash the boards hard and cut transition off at the source -- something Mocon is well-equipped to do.
Mocon currently ranks 9th in the league in offensive rebounds per game with 3.0, making him a key disruptor on both ends. His value doesn't stop there; he's also a capable point-of-attack defender who can switch across multiple positions, an asset against a Rain or Shine lineup that leans heavily on perimeter creation and spacing -- in hopes to end this series as quickly as possible.
X-factor for Rain or Shine: Andrei Caracut
Handicapped by the season-ending hand injury to Felix Lemetti, Rain or Shine now turns to Andrei Caracut not just as a scorer, but as the primary playmaker. The shift in responsibility means Caracut must control the tempo, set up his teammates and still find ways to create his own offense. It's a tough ask, but one he's shown flashes of being capable of. The challenge now is consistency -- and it begins with this playoff showdown against NLEX.
Caracut's first outing of the conference, coincidentally against NLEX, was underwhelming. He finished with just nine points, two rebounds, and three assists while posting a -11 in 21 minutes -- a performance that lacked rhythm and impact. But his recent surge offers a different picture. In their penultimate game of the eliminations, Caracut exploded for 24 points and seven assists against San Miguel, doing so on an eye-catching 75.6 TS%.
Without Lemetti and Anton Asistio, not really your typical point guard, the on-ball duties fall squarely on Caracut's shoulders. As NLEX aims to make it a half court tussle, his ability to make quick reads and hit shots off the dribble will be vital in maintaining the team's offensive flow. If Caracut can strike that balance, he becomes one of the most important players in the series.
Prediction: Rain or Shine in two. NLEX's losses have been against teams that play at a high pace and they might have caught Rain or Shine with some conference jitters back in the eliminations.
3. Magnolia Hotshots vs 6. TNT Tropang 5G
An interesting and contrasting clash of two good defensive teams but varying strengths on the offensive end. For Magnolia, they do damage inside the paint through post-ups and drives and convert the third most (28.5 makes) and efficient (53.4%) 2s in this conference. While TNT's offense is pretty much predicted to taking a ton of 3s out of their dribble drive system, taking the most triples and converting the best and is tops in the league of proficiency at 36.2%.
What happened in the eliminations: Both teams met as their last assignment in the eliminations, which somehow decided who got the coveted twice-to-beat advantage -- with Magnolia grabbing the all-important 88-83 win. The key number to note here is TNT had 23 turnovers for the game, a stat that they are the second-best for the conference with just an average of 12.6 per game.
X-factor for Magnolia: Paul Lee
In their recent matchup, TNT turned up the defensive pressure in the second half, especially in guarding pick-and-roll ballhandlers. They frequently showed higher at the level of the screen, aiming to disrupt timing and force tough decisions. If there's one player Magnolia can rely on to exploit that aggressive coverage, it's Paul Lee.
While Lee didn't light up the scoreboard, finishing with just seven points on 22.2% shooting, his playmaking was a difference-maker. He dished out seven assists, a testament to the gravity he commands. With much of Magnolia's offense built around pick-and-roll actions, Lee's shooting threat forces TNT to commit two defenders to the ball. It opens up space on the roll for bigs like Ian Sangalang, Zav Lucero, and newcomer William Navarro. If TNT's low man rotates late, Lee either finds the open man or simply capitalizes on the defense's hesitation to leave him open when he's not fully involved in the action.
What makes Lee so valuable is his ability to stretch the floor from anywhere -- even beyond the 4-point line range. He's Magnolia's offensive equalizer, giving their interior-focused attack more room to breathe. His shooting not only warps defenses but also puts tremendous strain on TNT's help-side coverage, making him a pivotal figure in how this chess match unfolds.
X-factor for TNT: Jordan Heading
The blockbuster trade that brought Jordan Heading to TNT signals just how serious the franchise is about chasing a historic Grand Slam. Heading isn't just a high-level talent, he's a tailor-made fit for the system TNT thrives in. But with limited time to get acclimated, the real question is whether he can pick up the nuances quickly enough to help them overcome their current quarterfinal hurdle.
In just two games so far this conference, Heading has shown flashes of why TNT made the move. He's averaging 11 points, 4.5 rebounds, and 2.5 assists with an impressive 66.9 true shooting percentage. Indeed, those numbers reflect efficient offense, yet the real intrigue lies in his potential role as an initiator in TNT's dribble-drive-heavy attack. With his ability to put the ball on the floor and make plays off penetration, Heading can force rotations and kick out to open shooters or create drop-off opportunities for bigs -- skills that align perfectly with TNT's spacing principles.
At the same time, Heading's value isn't limited to creation. He's a knockdown shooter who can space the floor and punish teams for helping off him. That dual-threat capability, as both a ballhandler and a spot-up threat, adds a new layer to TNT's already potent perimeter game. If he finds his rhythm early, Heading could be the piece that makes TNT's offense even more difficult to guard in this crucial playoff stretch.
Prediction: TNT in two. Payback by TNT can be expected with the previous loss still fresh. Also, you don't want to meet them in a do-or-die setup.
4. Barangay Ginebra vs 5. Converge FiberXers
Defense will be the name of the game between Ginebra and Converge for this series. Among the eight teams remaining, Ginebra has the best defense in the league allowing only 82.4 points per game against fellow playoff teams, followed up by Converge with a good defensive mark of 90.7 points allowed. A deciding factor might be which offense can score more against what each team can take away from one another.
What happened in the eliminations: It was a defensive struggle for both squads in a road game held in Pampanga, with Ginebra coming out on top with an 85-66 victory. Japeth Aguilar reigned supreme in the battle of big men with 23 points and 10 rebounds on 68.8% field goal percentage.
X-factor for Ginebra: Jayson David
Opportunity knocked for Jayson David when LA Tenorio shifted focus to his Gilas Youth coaching duties, opening up minutes in Ginebra's rotation. Since then, David has carved out a meaningful role -- primarily on the defensive end. Now, with a quarterfinal matchup against Converge's deep backcourt, his impact will be tested more than ever.
David isn't one to stuff the stat sheet -- outside of his surprising 25-point outburst in his conference debut against NorthPort, his numbers have been modest. But his value lies in the intangibles. He's become Ginebra's top option for neutralizing opposing perimeter threats. That was evident in their elimination-round win over Converge, where he hounded both Alec Stockton and Schonny Winston into a combined 12 points on just 18.2% shooting from the field. It was the kind of defensive performance that doesn't always show up in the box score but wins playoff games.
Going into this matchup, David's ability to replicate that same energy and discipline will be crucial. Converge's offense leans heavily on Stockton and Winston's aggressiveness off the dribble and in transition. If David can once again disrupt their rhythm, it will give Ginebra a huge edge in containing one of the fastest-paced teams in the league. Simply put, his defense could tip the series.
X-factor for Converge: JL De Los Santos
Even Ginebra would acknowledge that Converge's core, the twin towers of Justin Arana and Justine Baltazar will find ways to produce, while Stockton and Winston -- despite being focal points of the scouting report -- still have the shot-creation ability to put up numbers. But for Converge to pull off back-to-back wins and take the series, it's the supporting cast that must deliver. One name quietly emerging as a potential swing factor is JL De Los Santos.
With Jordan Heading's departure and Mikey Williams' status still unclear, De Los Santos has seen increased opportunity in Converge's backcourt rotation. Though his performance in this conference has been inconsistent, his recent showing against San Miguel was a promising sign. He tallied 13 points on an efficient 65.8 TS% and posted a team-best +13 in 29 minutes -- knocking down open looks and playing with control. That outing might be the turning point toward stabilizing his role.
Beyond scoring, De Los Santos is also Converge's top playmaker, leading the team in assists with 3.3 per game. His ability to orchestrate the offense, whether in pick-and-rolls or drive-and-kick situations, gives Converge an important connector who can get the ball to their key bigs and shooters in the right spots. If he continues to find rhythm and confidence, he could be the player that tips the balance in Converge's favor.
Prediction: Ginebra in one. It feels like Ginebra is peaking at the right time, especially with how precise their offensive execution has looked in this current three-game winning streak.