As the 2024-25 PBA Commissioner's Cup finals is about to start, Miguel Alfonso Caramoan and Jutt Sulit try to answer five burning questions ahead of yet another championship matchup between the TNT Tropang Giga and Barangay Ginebra.
How will TNT compensate for Jayson Castro's absence?
Sulit: Before going down in Game 2 of the semifinals, Castro was TNT's leading local scorer in the series. No one can ever question what he can do on the court, but he shouldn't be that guy anymore. Not when he's 38 years old. Not when there's an abundance of young talent in the team. But things weren't flowing smoothly for TNT and they needed their leader.
While the numbers were gaudy for Jayson, it's not what TNT will miss the most. They still have fiery scorers in Calvin Oftana and RR Pogoy. Rey Nambatac was a non-factor in the semis but he's capable of being the lead facilitator. It's Castro's leadership that might leave a hole, but with how vocal RHJ is, he can easily step into that role. That said, you can never really fully fill the void of a Jayson Castro absence.
Caramoan: I think his offense can be replaced. With Rondae Hollis-Jefferson leading the way, the key here is for everyone else to embrace their roles. As you said, they have enough firepower, especially if Oftana, Pogoy, and Nambatac can deliver from a mix of shooting beyond the arc and slashing to the basket.
But to truly gain the upper hand, TNT should turn this series into a defensive battle. After all, that's how they were able to defeat Ginebra in the past Governors' Cup..
What impact will Troy Rosario, Jamie Malonzo, and Jeremiah Gray have on Ginebra in this finals matchup?
Sulit: We already saw the effect of Malonzo's return during the semis. He was reworked into the offense without disrupting the flow Ginebra developed prior to his comeback. His improved outside shooting will be key in this series -- especially if they still go with the high-octane offense they played in the semis.
But among the three names mentioned, Rosario will have the biggest impact on this series. He's familiar with TNT and Coach Chot Reyes' system. He's versatile on both ends. He has range. Arguably, and most importantly, he makes Japeth Aguilar more effective because of his IQ in moving without the ball. Rosario is the X-factor that TNT will need to watch out for in this series.
Caramoan: Ginebra's versatile depth plays a crucial role in their rotation. The quality of their bench gives Tim Cone options during high-stakes situations.
Rosario's ability to score around the rim adds another interior threat, allowing Ginebra to sustain their inside attack even when their primary bigs need a breather. Malonzo, with his athleticism and scoring punch off the bench, provides instant energy and can change the tempo of a game. Meanwhile, Gray's shooting stretches the floor, forcing defenses to stay honest and creating more driving lanes for Brownlee and Thompson.
These are elements Ginebra lacked in their last encounter, and their presence now gives them a more balanced offensive attack. Defensively, it also means Cone has more weapons to throw at TNT -- whether it's length on the perimeter, rim protection, or switching versatility. With these added dimensions, Ginebra is not only deeper but also more difficult to contain, making them a much more formidable opponent this time around.
What adjustments do you expect from Tim Cone and Chot Reyes in this series?
Sulit: Matchups and points of attack. I can already see both coaches throwing different defenders at each others' imports. They'll definitely be looking for possible mismatches and react accordingly should one be exploited. These two know each other so well that it's going to be a chess match.
Caramoan: I'm curious to see if Cone will assign Rosario to defend the primary ball handler again, as he did against NorthPort in the semifinals. This move could also disrupt TNT's pick-and-roll game with RHJ, as Ginebra could simply switch a taller defender.
On the other hand, I'm also interested in whether TNT will let RHJ run the point, surrounding him with one big and shooters around the floor. Someone like Kim Aurin could be a key addition to that lineup -- offering perimeter defense against Ginebra's guards or wings while providing an extra shooting threat.
With RHJ carrying a heavier load due to Castro's injury and Brownlee likely seeing increased usage after an OK semifinals, what do you expect from their third finals showdown?
Sulit: It's going to be the same dog fight we saw the past two Finals matchups between these two. While RHJ logged more time in the semifinals than Brownlee, I don't think it matters much in the Finals. The week-long break should have been enough time to recover. Second, it's the Finals. Hollis-Jefferson gets upset when he's subbed out in an elimination round game let alone in the Finals. We're about to see the best from these two imports.
Caramoan: I expect the same level of effort from RHJ - it's been his trademark and a key factor in TNT's two championships. On the other hand, saying Brownlee will have a bigger role in this series compared to the semifinals is an understatement, given what's at stake. However, that lighter workload might have actually helped him prepare for this grueling matchup. Either way, fans are in for a treat, getting to watch two elite imports go head-to-head.
What's your prediction for Ginebra-TNT III?
Sulit: Seven games. A down-to-the-wire Game 7 that keeps us on the edge of our seats. But TNT's incomplete roster hurts them and Ginebra finally gets their sought-after revenge.
Caramoan: This series should be tightly contested, but I believe this version of Ginebra is even more dangerous than the one we saw last conference. The key difference lies in their depth and versatility, giving them multiple ways to attack and adjust based on matchups.
Defensively, they also have more tools to throw at TNT with the addition of Malonzo and Rosario. And on offense, I see them having an edge with how Cone has figured out the combinations -- with a starting unit that plays mechanical through the triangle offense and a second unit that gets out in transition.