Familiar foes. New battleground. Same ultimate prize.
The rivalry between TNT Tropang Giga and Barangay Ginebra continues to simmer as the two teams clash again in the finals. This marks their third championship showdown and the first final in the Commissioner's Cup.
With each team holding a piece of their shared history, this latest encounter carries more weight than ever. TNT, led by Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, has had the upper hand, winning their first two finals meetings in the last three years. Meanwhile, Ginebra, despite its championship pedigree, has suffered only two finals defeats with Justin Brownlee -- and both came at the hands of TNT.
For TNT, a third straight victory over their longtime rivals would further cement their dominance in this feud. But for Ginebra, this series isn't just about reclaiming the Commissioner's Cup -- it's about rewriting the narrative, and proving that no team, not even TNT, can keep them down for long.
With much at stake, let's take a deeper look at how TNT and Ginebra matchup in this third iteration of their best-of-seven finals.
TNT's defense vs Ginebra's streaking offense
An elite defense powered both TNT and Ginebra during the eliminations. They showcased an ability to lock down opponents and set the foundation for deep playoff runs. Ginebra thrived by slowing the pace and leaned on a deliberate half-court offense - a stark contrast to their up-tempo approach in the Governors' Cup.
TNT's defensive identity took shape with Rondae Hollis-Jefferson's arrival in 2023. His versatility has since anchored their schemes and turned them into a defensive powerhouse.
There was a shift in the dynamics during the playoffs, however, especially for Ginebra. TNT remained steadfast on defense, successfully neutralizing Rain or Shine's high-powered transition attack in the semifinals and held them to just 91 points per game - 13.3 points below their conference average.
Ginebra's offense took a leap, averaging 103.7 points per game in the quarterfinals and semifinals -- 5.2 points higher than their elimination round output. Zooming in further on their last five games, they exploded for 118 points per game, tallying 36 assists in the first three games of their series against NorthPort and showcased a new level of offensive fluidity.
As both teams adjust their strengths in the postseason, the finals now pose an intriguing question: Will TNT's defensive wall hold firm or will Ginebra's offensive surge carry them to the title?
X-factor for TNT: Roger Pogoy
TNT will be without veteran star point guard Jayson Castro -- who won the Finals MVP award in the past Governors' Cup finals against this same Ginebra team. In that series, the two-time Best Point Guard in Asia averaged 10.3 points, three rebounds, and 5.1 assists in six games. Beyond the numbers, his stability as the floor general and his role as TNT's main catalyst in their dribble drive offense was evident.
Before he was injured, Castro was also a major factor against Rain or Shine during the semifinals -- averaging 18.5 points, 3.5 rebounds, and 4.0 assists on an incredible 85.3 TS%. While TNT managed to shut down Rain or Shine with their elite defense, facing a high-powered Ginebra squad presents an entirely different challenge. Without Castro's steadying presence, another local scorer must step up to fill the void.
RR Pogoy may be the player to watch here.
Primarily utilized as a spot-up and movement shooter, Pogoy has seen an expanded role since Castro's injury. His increased aggression was evident in TNT's Game 4 semifinal win, where he scored 22 points on 50% shooting. While he struggled from beyond the arc (2/8 from 3), he was highly effective inside, shooting 66.7% (8/12) from two-point range by attacking mismatches against smaller defenders.
For the conference, Pogoy has averaged 13.1 points, 3.1 rebounds, and 2.2 assists on 50.4% true shooting -- solid numbers for a third option. However, against Ginebra, he'll need to raise his game on both ends of the floor. Offensively, he must continue his assertiveness, but defensively, he faces an even tougher task.
With Ginebra's offense clicking, Pogoy will likely be tasked with guarding one of their wings -- or even taking turns defending Justin Brownlee. If TNT hopes to overcome Ginebra's firepower, Pogoy's two-way performance could be a deciding factor.
X-factor for Ginebra: Troy Rosario
Ginebra enters the finals with reinforcements they didn't have in their last Governors' Cup championship clash. Among the key additions to Ginebra's roster, Troy Rosario stands out for his length and versatility -- qualities that make him an invaluable piece in this series.
Rosario has quietly been one of the most efficient role players for Ginebra in his first conference with the team. His numbers -- 12.8 points, 6.7 rebounds, and 1.8 assists over 20 games-speak to his well-rounded impact. He has primarily thrived as a play-finisher, camping around the dunker spot and converting high-percentage looks. His 66.2% shooting on two-pointers is proof of how seamlessly he has fit into Ginebra's offense, providing an inside scoring presence that complements their perimeter threats.
Beyond his offensive contributions, Rosario's versatility will be crucial against TNT's dynamic attack. He gives Ginebra the option to go small, relieving Japeth Aguilar at the five and allowing them to match up more effectively against TNT's speed and switch-heavy defense. His ability to play as a stretch big or roll man will also test TNT's defensive schemes, particularly in pick-and-roll situations where he can exploit mismatches.
Defensively, Rosario's length makes him one of Ginebra's best options to take on Rondae Hollis-Jefferson. At 6-7, he has the size and mobility to challenge TNT's import, preventing easy drives and contesting his mid-range attempts. Hollis-Jefferson's physicality and relentless attacking style demands a strong defensive presence, and Rosario's combination of agility and strength could make him a valuable counter.
With his ability to score efficiently inside, provide lineup flexibility, and take on key defensive assignments, Rosario's presence could be a game-changer for Ginebra. As the series unfolds, his impact on both ends of the floor will be one of the key factors in determining whether Ginebra can reclaim the Commissioner's Cup crown.
Prediction: Ginebra in 6