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NFL playoff picture projections: Updated chances to make the postseason, win divisions
We're looking ahead to how the 14-team playoff picture could line up en route to Super Bowl LIX.
Illustration by ESPN
NFL
We simulated the rest of the NFL season: 48 regular-season games, 13 playoff matchups and one Super Bowl winner
We used ESPN Football Power Index's most likely simulation to project Weeks 16, 17 and 18 -- and how the NFL playoff field could stack up.
Top Headlines
NFL
NFL win rate metrics leaderboard: Who is the best statistical pass rusher? Top run blocking team?
Our win rate metrics stack the NFL's best run-blocking, run-stopping, pass-protecting and pass-rushing players and teams.
NFL
Which NFL teams are most, least analytics-advanced? We surveyed 22 staffers around the league
Do the Browns still lead the way in analytics? Which franchises have bought in, and which remain skeptical? We polled NFL teams on advanced data usage.
NFL
No, NFL analytics models don't always recommend going for it on fourth down: Here's the method
Do NFL analytics models always recommend going for it on fourth down? No. Here's how the decisions actually are made.
NFL
NFL pass-rushing, run-stopping, blocking leaderboard: Win rate rankings for 2023
Our win rate metics stack the NFL's best run-blocking, run-stopping, pass-protecting and pass-rushing players and teams.
NFL
Updated NFL playoff picture: AFC, NFC seed projections after Week 17
We're looking ahead to how the 14-team playoff picture could line up en route to Super Bowl LVIII.
Packers
NFL
Going for 2 down 8 points: Packers pull off come-from-behind win thanks to this strategy
The Packers profited from being the first team this season to try this unconventional 2-point conversion attempt. Here's why others should follow their lead.
news - analytics
2023 NBA draft projections: Will Victor Wembanyama become an All-Star?
How do Victor Wembanyama's All-Star chances stack up to those of prior top draft picks?
NFL
NFL game management cheat sheet: Guide to fourth downs and 2-point conversions
Curious about a fourth-down or 2-point conversion decision? ESPN's recommendation model can help.
NFL
NFL pass-rushing, run-stopping, blocking leaderboard: Win rate rankings for 2022
Our win rate metics stack the best run-blocking, run-stopping, pass-protecting and pass-rushing players and teams in the game for the 2022 season.
Khalil Herbert gains 63 yards on a run against the Commanders.
Darius Slayton gets open on a short route, makes a catch and takes it for a 24-yard gain against the Lions.
NFL
Which NFL teams are most, least analytics-advanced? We surveyed 21 team staffers
Which NFL team buys in to analytics the most? Which teams remain skeptical? And is momentum a thing? We surveyed team staffers from around the league for the inside word.
NFL
Checking in on the top 10 CB picks in the 2021 Draft as the nearest defender today, per NFL Next Gen Stats. Patrick Surtain: 1 reception allowed for -4 yards on 1 target over 28 coverage snaps. Jaycee Horn: 1 reception allowed for -1 yards on 1 target over 26 coverage snaps.
NFL
PJ Walker's touchdown pass to DJ Moore had an air distance of 67.6 yards -- the longest air distance completion in the Next Gen Stats era, since 2016.
NFL
The Chiefs won despite a massive error by Andy Reid punting on 4th-and-3 at the Raiders' 46 with 2:36 left, per ESPN's win probability model. Win probability had they gone for it: 78.3% Win probability by punting: 69.1%
NFL
Deebo Dots! Expected YAC: 1.0 yards Actual YAC: 51.7 yards Per NFL Next Gen Stats
Eagles
NFL
Haason Reddick pass rush win rate at edge Weeks 1-2: 4%, 58th/62 Weeks 3-4: 29%, T-6th/61 (ESPN / NFL Next Gen Stats)
Steelers
NFL
Steelers mixed up George Pickens' routes much more today. He had previously run an extreme rate of straight downfield routes. Go routes W1-3: 17% W4: 4% Deep fades W1-3: 23% W4: 13% Image is his route map today, on all routes. (ESPN / NGS)
Zay Jones (7) open deep but untargeted in Week 1.
Top Headlines
- Goosen wins Champions event after wet finish
- Man City alter UCL prep due to artificial pitch
- Cardinals' Contreras day-to-day with hip injury
- Twins' Polanco back on IL with hamstring injury
- Conference revenues vary in '20-21 amid COVID
- J.J. Watt: Taking a knee isn't about the flag
- Memphis to play Mississippi State in 2028, 2029
ESPN Analytics
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NFL Football Power Index (FPI)
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NBA Basketball Power Index (BPI) Playoff Odds
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VIDEO -- Explaining CFB Playoff Predictor
VIDEO -- Explaining PlayStation Player Impact Rating
VIDEO -- Explaining CFB QBR
VIDEO -- Explaining CFB FPI
VIDEO -- Explaining Expected Points Added
