Who are the favourites for the 2025 AFL premiership? Who are the legitimate contenders? And who should already be booking September holidays? Jake Michaels has ranked every club with just a few weeks of the season remaining.
Note: ESPN's AFL tiers will be a monthly column throughout the 2025 season.
Prepare the trophy case
1. GEELONG
2. ADELAIDE
3. BRISBANE
4. COLLINGWOOD
If you want to argue the premiership race is down to four teams, I'm not going to scoff. I'd say there's about a 95% chance the flag winner comes from this group, I just can't bring myself to draw a line through a few other teams ... yet. More on that in a moment. So, who has the best chance? Well, that seems to change week to week. The Crows are in rampant form and likely going to finish top of the ladder, meaning they may not leave South Australia until the Grand Final. The Cats are, well, the Cats. Under Chris Scott, they just continue to perform. It also helps having a guy who might kick 100 goals for the season! The Magpies have struggled in the back end of the year, but we know they have the pedigree, as well as the MCG advantage up their sleeve. Like Collingwood, the Lions are also seasoned finalists and know what it takes to win the biggest game of the year.
Can we fast forward 12 months?
5. FREMANTLE
6. HAWTHORN
7. GOLD COAST
So that remaining 5% I was talking about before? Yeah, I'll share it amongst these three. It may feel like a bit of a slap in the face for three sides who have been around the mark all year, but do you really think any of them are upsetting the big four? Do you really think any of them can get it done from outside the top four? The Dockers, Hawks, and Suns have each had great building years and will all no doubt be better teams in 2026 when they welcome back key players from injury, but right now they either lack consistency, the ability to knock off the top teams, or a scare factor.
And STILL ... frauds
8. WESTERN BULLDOGS
9. GWS
Geez these two sides are frustrating. For the Bulldogs, it's a consistent theme; belt the bottom teams and lose to the top sides. Every. Single. Week. Having a percentage of 137.3 and not sitting inside the top eight is just ludicrous! And then there's the Giants. Who knows what they'll dish up week to week? They've had a six-game winning streak, an 88-point humiliation, and a four in five game losing period all this year. These teams can be scary when clicking, but I just don't trust them to perform for an entire finals series.
See you all in 2026
10. SYDNEY
11. ST KILDA
12. MELBOURNE
13. PORT ADELAIDE
14. CARLTON
15. ESSENDON
16. RICHMOND
17. NORTH MELBOURNE
Sorry, not sorry for lumping all of these teams together, but you've got to understand. Some of these sides have severely disappointed in 2025. I mean, just diabolical (looking at you, Carlton). There are some that have performed better than many might have expected (anyone have the Tigers winning five games?!) And then there are those that have been just bang average; right where we thought they'd be, but nowhere near good enough to challenge the true contenders. But all of these teams have one thing in common this season: they're all set to miss the upcoming finals series. Pack it up, enjoy your breaks, train hard, and we'll see you all next year.
Should be relegated
18. WEST COAST
The Eagles simply have to be placed in their own tier. Just one win for the entire season and only 11 wins from their past 92 games, the club has truly hit rock bottom. The most concerning part? Nobody can have any level of confidence things will turn around next season.