Round 21 of the 2025 AFL season is in the books. So, it's time to react ... or overreact to the biggest talking points of the week.
Is Geelong's 'soft' fixture the ideal preparation for finals? Would the Bulldogs missing the eight be one of modern footy's biggest disappointments?
Let's get to this week's overreactions, where we judge a few major takeaways as legitimate or irrational.
Geelong's 'easy' fixture is the ideal finals preparation
With three rounds to go, Geelong finds itself on track for a top two finish, and its fixture is a big reason why. The Cats will end up facing just one other top nine side in their final eight games, while every other contender continues to face off in high-stakes clashes. Their percentage is climbing, the wins keep coming, and they're set to earn a qualifying final and double chance. But does their cruisy run home really set them up perfectly for September?
Verdict: Overreaction
There's no denying Geelong has made the most of its fixture, and credit to them. They're a very good side, and when you pair that with -- what has become clear is -- a fortuitous edit of the schedule, it's no surprise they're finishing strong. But the idea that this is the perfect way to prepare for finals footy? We're not sure.
While the Cats are likely to secure a top two spot -- or at least top four -- there's something to be said for facing genuine pressure in the lead-up to September. Other top nine sides are being tested weekly, revealing flaws and ironing out problems before finals actually arrive. Geelong doesn't get that same reality check.
They've been excellent this season -- Bailey Smith has added plenty of zip to the midfield, their defence is rock solid, and Jeremy Cameron and Patrick Dangerfield are causing havoc up forward. But soft opposition masks cracks. Not to say they have too many.
They've already beaten six top nine teams this year, so we know they can do it. But the notion that coasting through the final two months of the season is somehow ideal prep? Not buying it, even though it's not really a 'bad' thing. Finals footy is simply a different beast, and the bruise-free (and low pressure) game against Port isn't ideal prep. As we said, they're a genuine contender and are good enough to win it all. But they won't be able to dodge the big dogs when it matters most.
The Bulldogs missing finals would be the biggest disappointment in over a decade
The Western Bulldogs currently sit outside the top eight, in ninth position, two games clear of 10th-placed Sydney but a game behind GWS and the Hawks who currently occupy 7th and 8th. With three games to go, the Dogs probably need to win out to guarantee themselves a spot in the eight.
Luke Beveridge's side boats one of the most fearsome forward line duos in the league in Sam Darcy and Aaron Naughton, and genuine stars across the park led by skipper Marcus Bontempelli, Tom Liberatore, Ed Richards, and Bailey Dale. If a team this good misses finals it would be an underachievement - and a big one at that. Therefore ...
Verdict: Not an overreaction
Let's put this in perspective. Heading into Round 22, the Bulldogs have the league's third best percentage at 137.3, behind ladder leaders Adelaide (144.1%) and a Geelong side (138.6%) which has been on a tear in recent weeks.
In the final eight era, the team with the highest percentage to miss the eight? St Kilda, back in 2012, with a percentage of 123.3.
But why is percentage important? Well, according to Champion Data, it's a quick way to determine whether you 'won' the year. If your side sits at 100% come the end of the season, you probably have a middling record, and you're on the cusp of finals. For the Dogs to have a percentage of 137.3, and miss? It would be an anomaly of the highest order. Yes, they've won and won well against some poor teams (and the Giants last week), but they've also not been blown away by good teams (think vs. Geelong, Brisbane, and Adelaide). Really, they're a finals-calibre side at the very, very least.
But, do we think they'll miss? Probably not. All things being equal (though we know upsets can and probably will occur), the Bulldogs should just do enough to sneak in as they'll start favourites in possibly all three remaining games (vs. Melbourne at the MCG, and then West Coast and Fremantle both at Marvel Stadium). Meanwhile the Hawks face a couple of tough games in their final three, including this week against the Pies, and at the Gabba to close out the year.
Squeaky bum time, Bevo.