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          Six Points: Michael Voss in lose-lose situation; of course James Sicily was injured

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          • Jake MichaelsJun 3, 2025, 04:40 PM ET
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              Jake Michaels is a Melbourne-based sports writer who has been with ESPN since 2013. He primarily writes on the AFL, but his assignments have taken him all around the world, covering everything from Formula One to Grand Slam tennis, boxing to basketball, and the Olympic Games.
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          Each week of the 2025 AFL season, ESPN.com.au's Jake Michaels looks at six talking points.

          This week's Six Points features the do-or-die situation for Blues coach Michael Voss, why I knew James Sicily was injured, the Lions who can win the Brownlow Medal (not the one you're thinking), and a couple of crazy stats.

          1. The next month will -- and should -- determine Michael Voss' Carlton future

          With games against Essendon, West Coast, North Melbourne, and Port Adelaide, Carlton has very little to gain over the next four weeks.

          Sure, if the Blues go 4-0 over this stretch, they'll jump back into the top eight, but no sane person is going to jump up and down and claim they're back in business. They should be winning all of these games, and they should be winning them in relatively comfortable fashion. But that doesn't mean they can mix it with the likes of Collingwood, Brisbane, and Adelaide.

          On the flip side, if they are to slip up and come out with a 3-1 record, or god forbid 2-2, it could ultimately bring the curtain down on Michael Voss' coaching tenure. Think that's a tad harsh? Carlton could potentially be 6-9 and at least three wins out of finals; an unquestionably poor return for a club that has consistently been viewed as legitimate premiership contenders for each of the past three seasons.

          Would you believe me if I told you Carlton actually has a losing record of 17-19 since recording its famous win over Melbourne in that 2023 semifinal? You better believe it. They've also managed to beat just one top eight team over the past 12 months!

          Anything short of a perfect month for the Blues will have the writing on the wall for Voss' future. And we all know Carlton's powerbrokers aren't afraid to pull the trigger on mid-season coaching changes if they believe either better options are out there or the list should be performing at a higher level.

          2. Of course James Sicily was injured. He's nowhere near this bad

          There's nobody in football media that's been a greater supporter and advocate of James Sicily over the past five years than yours truly. I've consistently made the argument the Hawthorn skipper is the best defender in the game, as well as a no doubt top 15 player in the competition. But based on what he had dished up through the first half of season 2025, it was becoming impossible to continue holding that belief.

          Sicily has been in career-worst form, and that's not even arguable. His performance against the Magpies last Friday night was dire, tallying just six disposals and 3.0 Champion Data Rating Points, the fourth-fewest of any outing in his 168-game career. It's been a concerning trend for the year, with Sicily averaging 18.9 disposals, 357 metres gained, 6.7 intercepts, and 8.9 Rating Points per game, all of which are his lowest since 2017, excluding season 2020 which featured reduced game lengths.

          Is he playing injured? It was a question posed and pondered by many in recent weeks, and one which was confirmed Tuesday afternoon. The Hawks have ruled their skipper out for at least three weeks with a nagging hip complaint, making his poor 2025 form make sense. He's nowhere close to this level of player.

          "Having played every game this season, we were always looking to give James an extended break around the bye, so we've decided to bring this forward," said Hawks doctor Liam West.

          It's the correct decision by Hawthorn. Every time you take to the field we have to assume you're fit and healthy, and, as such, open to criticism when you underperform. After all, Sicily is the captain of a side that entered the year as the second favourite to win the flag and is now riding a three-game losing streak. Criticism would otherwise be coming thick and fast.

          3. Get ready, 'Flag Crows' discourse is coming

          I'm going to make a prediction I feel extremely confident about. If the Crows are to beat the Lions this Friday night at Adelaide Oval, the weekend, and all of next week, will be dominated with the narrative that this side might just be the team to beat in season 2025.

          Now, am I predicting a Crows win? Not necessarily. I think it's a legitimate 50-50 clash, but one that is unquestionably season-defining for Matthew Nicks' team.

          At the halfway point of the year, Adelaide sits third on the ladder and boasts the best percentage in the league. In fact, their percentage of 139.3 is the 22nd best ever recorded after 12 games of a season. So what does a great mid-season percentage translate to? I'm glad you asked.

          READ: The stats don't do Jordan Dawson's awesome season justice

          There have been 34 teams in recorded history amass a percentage of at least 135 after 12 games. Of those, 22 played in the Grand Final that year (10 of them won it). Only two of them didn't make it to preliminary final weekend.

          Adelaide has also become Champion Data's darlings, ticking just about every box on their patented premiership standards report. Of the 32 key categories that have led to recent flag success, the Crows rank top six in 27, and top three in 16; comfortably ahead of everyone else in the competition. But the best part from an Adelaide perspective is that there's no category where they rank bottom eight. In other words, they currently have no weakness.

          4. This Lion (no, not Lachie Neale!) is a very real Brownlow Medal chance

          Lachie Neale, Dayne Zorko, Will Ashcroft, Harris Andrews, Josh Dunkley ... with so many stars on Brisbane's list it's easy to lose track and forget just how talented certain individuals are. And I feel that's what's happened with dynamic midfield link man Hugh McCluggage in 2025.

          McCluggage isn't loud, nor is he overly flashy, but boy is he putting together an extraordinary season for the Lions. At the halfway point of the year, McCluggage is averaging career-highs in disposals (26), contested possessions (12), clearances (6), and tackles (6), while also rating 'elite' for score launches, score involvements, inside 50s, and stoppage clearances.

          FACT: Hugh McCluggage is one of just four players averaging 25 disposals, five clearances, five inside 50s, and five tackles in 2025 (joining Marcus Bontempelli, Tom Liberatore, and Bailey Smith).

          We've become accustomed to hearing 'three votes, Brisbane, L. Neale' on Brownlow Medal night. Don't be surprised if it's McCluggage pocketing more votes than the two-time winner this time around. In fact, I have him sitting in second spot on my predictor after Round 12. Keep an eye on him.

          5. Something quirky I noticed

          If you were watching last Saturday afternoon's clash between the Giants and Tigers at ENGIE Stadium and felt there was some good flow to the game, then maybe it was because of the record low free kicks paid by the field umpires.

          Believe it or not, the third quarter of that clash featured ZERO frees! It's the first time that's happened in any quarter since 2015.

          Did you know? A kick that lands out on the full isn't considered a free kick against the offending team as it is not a field umpire decision.

          Not only that, but Richmond conceded just four free kicks for the entire game. According to Champion Data, that's the equal-lowest fulltime free kick tally in recorded history!

          6. My favourite stat of the week

          A special shoutout to @sirswampthing on X for sharing this absolute gem on Sunday evening.

          There's plenty to unpack here, but I want to focus on the bottom of the list. We're giving the Suns and Giants a pass, given they weren't even established clubs for half of this time, which means the blowtorch lands on the Blues. What this is basically saying is no supporter base has suffered more than Carlton's over the last quarter century!