Who are the favourites for the 2025 AFL premiership? Who are the legitimate contenders? And who should already be booking September holidays? Jake Michaels has ranked every club three months into the season.
Note: ESPN's AFL tiers will be a monthly column throughout the 2025 season.
A two-horse race?
1. COLLINGWOOD
2. BRISBANE
If the 2025 Grand Final featured Collingwood and Brisbane, I think we'd all nod our heads in agreement and say 'yep, fair enough'. The Magpies and Lions have been the two best and most consistent sides this season. They each the have requisite finals experience, a plethora of young and older talent on their lists, proven head coaches, and an aura of invincibility that carries them in such great stead in close encounters. This season, the two clubs have a combined record of 19-1-4 and, if we're being honest, probably both still have a little remaining in reserve.
Champion Data's darlings
3. ADELAIDE
4. GEELONG
5. WESTERN BULLDOGS
6. GOLD COAST
If you're a believer in Champion Data's premiership standards report, these are the four sides -- outside the top two, of course -- most likely to lift the premiership cup in season 2025. For those unfamiliar, the report looks at the 32 key metrics that have historically led to flag success, and clubs aim to rank in the top third (at least) for each. For the Crows, it's a sea of green. They don't just rank top six in 27 of the categories, they rank bottom eight in none of them! In layman's terms, they pretty much have no weakness. The Cats and Bulldogs are also doing plenty right, particularly in the attacking stakes. And then there's the Suns, who, much like the Crows, are doing everything either well enough or close to perfectly.
Potential? Yes. Major issue? Absolutely
7. FREMANTLE
8. HAWTHORN
9. GWS
These three clubs have either already showcased their dangerous best over the last 12 months or have the personnel (at least we think) to be a force in the league. The problem? Glaring weaknesses holding each of them back. The Dockers are up right now but are the biggest rollercoaster side in the competition. How can we ever trust them when they're prone to laying an egg on any given weekend? The Hawks began the season in red-hot form, but since losing Will Day to a four-month long foot injury, they've been humiliated in the midfield. It also doesn't help that their skipper's is in career worst form. The Giants have a similar issue to Hawthorn; they were toweled up in the midfield by the lowly Tigers, who won the contested possession (+29), clearance (+13), and inside 50 (+11) stakes. They all have things to work on.
False promises
10. ESSENDON
11. ST KILDA
12. MELBOURNE
13. CARLTON
14. SYDNEY
If you're a supporter of any of these clubs, you're probably thinking, 'why do I even bother'? These teams each offer hope, tease what could be with the occasional stirring win, and then proceed to underwhelm. Season 2025 has brought more pain than promise for all -- yes, even for you, Dons fans -- and it's becoming increasingly tough to make a case any of them will feature in September. Also, don't be surprised if things get worse before they get better...
And then there were four...
15. PORT ADELAIDE
16. RICHMOND
17. NORTH MELBOURNE
18. WEST COAST
For so long it's been the 'bottom three'. You know, the three sides anchored to the bottom of the ladder, viewed week after week as easybeats of the competition. But after what's been an embarrassing first half of 2025, the group of Richmond, North Melbourne, and West Coast now has another member: Port Adelaide. Think that's an exaggeration? Think again. Champion Data's premiership standards report would suggest the 4-7 Power is as far away from flag success as these three other clubs, Ken Hinkley's side ranking bottom six in 19 of the categories. This quartet has a win-loss record of 10-1-35 in 2025 and it's hard to make the argument any of them can turn it around in the back half of the season.