Who are the favourites for the 2025 AFL premiership? Who are the legitimate contenders? And who should already be booking September holidays? Jake Michaels has ranked every club on the eve of the new season.
Note: ESPN's AFL tiers will be a monthly column throughout the 2025 season.
Until proven otherwise
1. BRISBANE
The Lions topped my way-too-early tiers for 2025 and I've seen nothing over the past four months that makes me think anything otherwise as we revisit them two weeks out from Opening Round. The reigning premier may have bid farewell to star forward Joe Daniher, but it should still be a stronger outfit this season with the likes of Keidean Coleman, Tom Doedee, and Oscar McInerney returning from injury. Oh yeah, and they have also added the highly touted Levi Ashcroft -- brother of current Norm Smith Medal holder, Will -- to the fold. You can make strong cases for a number of sides going all the way in 2025, but before a game is played, there's no doubt it's the Lions everyone is chasing.
Maybe New South Wales is an AFL state
2. GWS
3. SYDNEY
Everyone appears to be so down on the two clubs from Sydney. I can understand that mentality if you only watched the last hour of each team's 2024 campaign, but for basically the other 99% of their respective seasons they had looked good enough to lift the premiership cup. he Giants suffered arguably the biggest finals capitulation in AFL history, while the Swans were humiliated in the Grand Final for the second time in three years. Both teams have retooled, both on and off the field, boast stars on every line, and should be locking up top four spots come season's end. Of course, anything can happen from there, but we know the best of GWS and Sydney is as good as anyone else. They are right in the mix for a flag, once again.
The Victor Wembanyamas
4. HAWTHORN
5. COLLINGWOOD
6. FREMANTLE
It didn't take a basketball genius to understand the NBA's No. 1 draft pick from 2023, Victor Wembanyama, was a can't-miss phenom that would one day become an unstoppable force in the league. But even with such lofty expectations, few predicted he would be this good, this early. These three teams feel a little similar. We know they're going to be strong in 2025, but I've got a feeling they're all going to be even better than the general consensus around them. The Hawks were the best side in the competition for five months in 2024, leading the league in points for and points against during a breathtaking 15-4 run. They now have arguably the best defence in the league, after adding Tom Barrass and Josh Battle, and will eventually welcome back forgotten key forward Mitch Lewis. For the Magpies, they are well and truly over their premiership hangover, managed to land the biggest coup of the trade and free agency period in Dan Houston, and are clearly in win now territory given they boast both the oldest and most experienced list in the comp. And then there's the Dockers, who were quietly building in 2024 and added an A-grader in Shai Bolton. Don't be surprised if we're making a case they have the best defence and midfield at some stage throughout the year. Each of these teams can win the flag in 2025.
Likely 'good', unlikely 'great'
7. CARLTON
8. GEELONG
9. PORT ADELAIDE
10. WESTERN BULLDOGS
These are the high floor, but relatively low ceiling teams. I can already hear calls of 'Geelong almost made a Grand Final six months ago', but does anyone really believe they, even with the addition of Bailey Smith, are better than even two of the teams ranked above? Didn't think so. The Power have been perennial finalists under Ken Hinkley, as have the Bulldogs under Luke Beveridge, but I'm not convinced the premiership window is as ajar as it's been in recent years for these two clubs. At the same time, I can't see either falling off the cliff. The Blues have the most potential of this group but a lack of depth has me concerned that they're once again an injury or two away from another monumental collapse. You might think all of these teams are in premiership contention, but I guarantee at least two of them will be around 6-5, 5-6 at the halfway point of the year.
Soap opera
11. MELBOURNE
Ah, the Demons. Has there been a more frustrating, 'what if' team over the last three or so years? I think not. Since winning the premiership in 2021, Melbourne has become more soap opera than professional football club. It has dealt with all sorts of on field and off field issues, all of which leading to an uncompetitive brand of football that's left many wondering what the future holds. The reality is there's still 16 premiership players on the list and the Demons should be in the mix for another flag. Can you trust them? Absolutely not. They could finish top four or bottom four and neither result would surprise me.
Still almost certainly won't be relevant in 2025
12. ADELAIDE
13. GOLD COAST
14. ESSENDON
15. ST KILDA
16. NORTH MELBOURNE
The first four of these five teams were grouped together in my way-too-early 2025 tiers, and I'm not changing a thing. The Crows have too many unproven players, the Suns cannot win on the road, the Bombers are just flatly not what everyone believed they were nine months ago, and the Saints, well, have forever been on the treadmill of mediocrity and I can't see it changing this season. I've bumped the Kangaroos up a tier as they're likely to be a significantly better outfit than in previous years. But will they be relevant? Doubtful. None of these five teams are good enough to play finals football this year. I'm guessing they all finish with around 6-10 wins for the year.
Borderline unwatchable
17. WEST COAST
18. RICHMOND
Yes, the Eagles will likely be better in year No. 2 of the Harley Reid era, but they are unlikely to be relevant and will almost certainly be a tough watch for large periods of the season. You can certainly say the same for the starting-from-scratch Tigers. In fact, Richmond in 2025 might just be the most guaranteed pre-season wooden spoon side we've seen since the expansion clubs joined the competition.