Nearly half a million brackets in the Women's Tournament Challenge correctly predicted UCLA, South Carolina, Texas and UConn to reach the Final Four. While many expected these teams to reach Tampa, Florida, they are an interesting split of old and new.
First, the old: UConn has been here 16 of the past 17 years and in 24 Final Fours in all under Geno Auriemma. The Huskies are the only No. 2 seed left but enter the Final Four as the favorite, according to ESPN BET. South Carolina has reached the final weekend for the fifth consecutive year and is trying to become the first back-to-back champion since UConn won four in a row from 2013 to 2016.
And the new: Vic Schaefer led Mississippi State to the Final Four in 2017 and 2018, but he has Texas in its first national semifinal since 2003. UCLA has never played this deep into the season in the NCAA era.
For just the sixth time in the history of the AP Top 25, four teams were ranked No. 1 during the season. Three -- South Carolina, Texas and UCLA -- will be in Tampa. That's how open this weekend's race to the championship will be. UCLA and UConn will play for the first time this season, while Texas and South Carolina will meet for the fourth time.
Here is how all four teams could raise a championship trophy Sunday night in Tampa.
Jump to: UConn | South Carolina | Texas | UCLA | Predictions
Dawn Staley joins the SEC Now crew to talk about what makes this year's South Carolina squad unique and the preparation plans for their fifth-straight Final Four appearance.
UCLA Bruins
No. 1 overall seed | Spokane Regional 1
• Round of 64: 84-46 vs. No. 16 Southern
• Round of 32: 84-67 vs. No. 8 Richmond
• Sweet 16: 76-62 vs. No. 5 Ole Miss
• Elite Eight: 72-65 vs. No. 3 LSU
• Final Four: vs. UConn, Friday, 9 p.m. ET (ESPN)
What's on the line? The program's first NCAA championship and the Big Ten's first national title since 1999
Why the Bruins can win: In 6-foot-7 Lauren Betts and her combination of size and skill, UCLA has a player no one in Tampa can match. Coach Cori Close runs an offense that spreads out the defense, allowing Betts to operate in space or one-on-one against a smaller opponent. Betts, who averages 20.0 points on 64.9% shooting, can score with both hands and excels at getting deep position in the low post, and when she gets there, she's nearly unstoppable. Betts also anticipates the double-team well and is an adept passer out of it. UCLA ranks fourth in the country in assists, and Betts averages 2.8 per game. Many of the Bruins' 3-pointers begin with a Betts quick-decision pass out of a double-team. She has scored 30 points twice in the NCAA tournament and, even when plagued by foul trouble, put up 17 points, 7 rebounds and 5 blocks against LSU. Those blocked shots (3.0 BPG) are the final element in her skill set. Her defense has greatly improved this season, and she's the most intimidating player at that end of the floor in this Final Four.
With Kiki Rice's playmaking, Timea Gardiner's 3-point shooting and Gabriela Jaquez's all-court game, the Bruins demonstrated against LSU that they are more than capable of operating without Betts for stretches. But to win a title, UCLA will need Betts on the floor and dominating inside.
Check out the top plays from Texas as the Longhorns defeat TCU 58-47 to head to the Final Four for the first time since 2003.
UCLA's fatal flaw: Lack of Final Four experience. Of all the teams at this Final Four, the Bruins have the fewest or least obvious on-court holes. But UCLA doesn't have experience in this environment. Except for assistant coach Shannon LeBeauf, who was an assistant on Duke's 2006 national runner-up, no Bruins player or coach has been to a Final Four. Perhaps it won't matter, but history says otherwise. Not since the 2006 Maryland Terrapins has a team won a national championship without having a coach or a player go through the experience first. Even the 2017 South Carolina champions had to go through losing in the national semifinals two years earlier. Dealing with the attention and the demanding schedule of events at the Final Four is different. How UCLA adjusts might be the key to winning the program's first NCAA championship.
Inside intel from Spokane
• Count on the Bruins to come out of the locker room, both at the start of games and after halftime, with immense focus and attention to detail. But in the second quarter, they struggle. This season, UCLA has averaged 18.6 points in the second quarter, and its offensive efficiency in the period is 106.6 -- its worst marks in each category in any quarter in 2024-25, per ESPN Research. The Bruins also turn over the ball on 20% of their second-quarter possessions, with 4.3 turnovers on average, also their worst mark in any quarter.
• Betts' impact is undeniable, but don't overlook Rice. Through four NCAA tournament games, the Bruins are shooting 69% off Rice's passes, which ranks third in the tournament for players with at least 20 assists. She has also had a role in 39 of UCLA's 80 3-point attempts, either as the passer or shooter. -- Kendra Andrews
Vic Schaefer joins The Paul Finebaum Show to talk about the Longhorns' season leading up to this point and preview what will be their fourth meeting with the Gamecocks this season.
South Carolina Gamecocks
No. 1 seed | Birmingham Regional 2
• Round of 64: 108-48 vs. No. 16 Tennessee Tech
• Round of 32: 64-53 vs. No. 9 Indiana
• Sweet 16: 71-67 vs. No. 4 Maryland
• Elite Eight: 54-50 vs. No. 2 Duke
• Final Four: vs. Texas, Friday, 7 p.m. ET (ESPN)
What's on the line? A second straight national championship and three titles in four years
Why the Gamecocks can win: While they are the one team in this Final Four without a go-to player, the Gamecocks might have the most individual answers. The Gamecocks are deep, not just in numbers but in options. MiLaysia Fulwiley's dynamic play fueled the Sweet 16 win over Maryland. Lockdown defense and getting the ball inside to Chloe Kitts and Sania Feagin powered South Carolina past Duke in the Elite Eight. The Gamecocks' top two scorers -- freshman Joyce Edwards (12.7 PPG) and Fulwiley (11.9) -- come off the bench, which produces more than any other in the country. Dawn Staley plays 10 players, and seven different Gamecocks have led the team in scoring in a game this season. South Carolina can play many ways offensively, so making a game plan to face the Gamecocks isn't easy.
Kitts has been the steadiest Gamecock, but Feagin's 12 points and 8 rebounds as the primary option against Duke show she adds yet another element. And this team has a championship pedigree. All five starters have already been to the Final Four twice and won a title. Fulwiley and Tessa Johnson, who was vital in last year's win over Iowa in the NCAA championship game, also have been through the experience before. Coaches and players at the Final Four are quick to point out that matters.
Paige Bueckers tallies 31 points, 6 assists and 4 steals as the UConn Huskies advance to their 24th Final Four.
South Carolina's fatal flaw: Opponents know the Gamecocks are vulnerable. The past two years, South Carolina reached the Final Four with an air of invincibility. This team doesn't have that. The Gamecocks lost three times before March -- and the three teams that beat them are in Tampa.
Before this season, shooting a high percentage and matching South Carolina's physicality -- or at least not allowing it to be intimidating -- was the way to beat the Gamecocks. But their three losses this season were all different. Texas didn't make one 3-pointer and pushed South Carolina around in its win in early February. UCLA and UConn shot well against the Gamecocks; the Bruins executed their half-court offense with precision and the Huskies repeatedly beat Gamecocks defenders off the dribble, creating open looks.
There are multiple ways to beat this South Carolina team, and the blueprints have already been drawn up. This team, as it did in the regionals, has to grind far more and rely on doing the little things at the right time.
Carolyn Peck joins "NBA Today" to preview the Final Four matchup between UConn and UCLA.
Inside intel from Birmingham
• Edwards still leads South Carolina in scoring, but these past three NCAA tournament games (a combined 15 points) have been her least productive stretch of the season. Her playing time has decreased the deeper South Carolina has gotten into the tournament. Perhaps more disconcerting: She has nine total turnovers in the past three games, including five in the second round. Coach Dawn Staley acknowledged opponents are keying on Edwards as the Gamecocks' leading scorer but also noted Edwards is a freshman learning her way through the postseason. "We have a week of practice, we can get back and simplify and hopefully we can show her some film where she can be effective," Staley said. "We need her. We going to win a national championship, we need better production from Joyce."
• So much of the conversation surrounding South Carolina headed into the season centered on how the Gamecocks would fare inside without Kamilla Cardoso. But Kitts is playing her best basketball. The 6-foot-2 forward has scored in double figures in nine straight games and is playing with more confidence and assertiveness. She had a double-double against Indiana, scoring all 10 points after halftime. Against Duke, Kitts nailed two free throws to seal the win, leading South Carolina with 14 points en route to regional MOP honors. Pairing Kitts with Feagin inside has proved to be a terrific combination. Staley pointed to Kitts' maturation and growth as a junior. "I just feel really confident and comfortable out there," Kitts said. "I just want to win."
• As Charlie mentioned, South Carolina has shown its vulnerabilities and a lack of cohesion at times. There were long stretches in the past three games when the Gamecocks simply made poor decisions about shot selection, and it has gotten them into holes. Staley, however, seemed unconcerned. "At this point it's not going to look pretty," she said. "You certainly have to get down and play the kind of game that's presented in front of you, and we'll do that. For us, there's not any blowouts. We have to grind for every single win that we can get and manufacture." -- Andrea Adelson
Texas Longhorns
No. 1 seed | Birmingham Regional 3
• Round of 64: 105-61 vs. No. 16 William & Mary
• Round of 32: 65-48 vs. No. 8 Illinois
• Sweet 16: 67-59 vs. No. 5 Tennessee
• Elite Eight: 58-47 vs. No. 2 TCU
• Final Four: vs. South Carolina, Friday, 7 p.m. ET (ESPN)
What's on the line? The program's second title (first since 1986) and coach Vic Schaefer's first (after two previous trips to the NCAA championship game with Mississippi State)
Why the Longhorns can win: William & Mary's 61 points in the first round are the most any team has scored against Texas in the NCAA tournament. Let that sink in. That's how good the Longhorns are defensively. Coaching defense is Schaefer's calling card (see: Texas A&M's improbable national championship in 2011, when he was an assistant). Defense also led his Mississippi State teams to consecutive NCAA title game appearances in 2017 and 2018.
Texas has size inside with Taylor Jones and Kyla Oldacre. Guard Rori Harmon excels as an on-ball defender. Madison Booker and Ndjakalenga Mwenentanda provide length. Freshman Bryanna Preston is ultra-quick and keeps getting better. Veteran Shay Holle fills all the gaps. The system emphasizes physicality and positioning, and the Longhorns have executed at a high level against good offenses. Tennessee averaged 86.6 points per game and scored 59 against Texas. TCU put up 77 points per contest but was held to 47. The saying goes that defense wins championships. Texas will be the team to prove it correct.
Texas' fatal flaw: A lack of 3-point shooting. The Longhorns might have the best midrange player in the game in Booker and sport the nation's fourth-best offensive rebound rate. But no team in the country gets less offense from shooting 3-pointers than Texas. Against TCU, the Longhorns took two shots from behind the arc. They are 8-for-24 from downtown in the NCAA tournament. For some perspective, UConn attempted 26 3-pointers in its regional semifinal win over Oklahoma. Without 3-point shooting as part of the offense, Texas is much easier to guard and has trouble playing from behind. And the Longhorns have averaged just 63.3 points in their past three games.
Inside intel from Birmingham
• In Texas' three previous meetings with the Gamecocks this season, Booker has gone a combined 14-for-54 from the field, making only 26% of her shots, for 37 total points. In the SEC tournament championship game, she was a nonfactor -- scoring 10 points -- as South Carolina pulled away with a 64-54 win. Since, Booker has scored at least 17 points in every NCAA tournament game, where she is averaging 18.8 PPG on 50.8% shooting. That includes the Elite Eight win over TCU, in which she scored 14 of her 18 points in the second half when the Longhorns needed her to step up and take control on offense.
• Texas is 23-0 when opponents shoot less than 40%, so that seems to be the magic number headed to Tampa. And in its past three NCAA tournament games, Texas has done a number on its opponent's leading scorer: TCU's Hailey Van Lith went 3-of-15 for 17 points (most came at the free throw line); Tennessee's Talaysia Cooper went 3-of-9 for 7 points; Illinois' Kendall Bostic went 4-of-13 for 8 points. "When we walked out of the championship game at the SEC tournament, people want to complain about my offense and we can't make it to the Final Four because of our offense," Schaefer said. "I've watched other teams play and they're scoring 50 points, 54 points, and ain't nobody complaining about their offense."
• In Vic, Texas trusts. Playing relentless defense is not for everyone, but the Longhorns have embraced it. "We've been through everything: conditioning, tired, on the ground, locker room, gassed out," Booker said. "These are the moments that you work for and you dream for, and it's fun. But also for this man, Vic Schaefer, right here, I'm happy doing it for him." Schaefer also remains motivated by Texas' history. "I see that [NCAA championship] banner every day in the practice facility, 34-0, national champions -- 1986," Schaefer said. "When I took the job five years ago that was something obviously that was on their mind and it's something that's been on my mind. It obsesses you." -- Adelson
UConn Huskies
No. 2 seed | Spokane Regional 4
• Round of 64: 103-34 vs. No. 15 Arkansas State
• Round of 32: 91-57 vs. No. 10 South Dakota State
• Sweet 16: 82-59 vs. No. 3 Oklahoma
• Elite Eight: 78-64 vs. No. 1 USC
• Final Four: vs. UCLA, Friday, 9 p.m. ET (ESPN)
What's on the line? Ending the Huskies' longest championship drought since winning their first in 1995 and sending Paige Bueckers off with a national championship
Why the Huskies can win: The offense is potent and efficient. The Huskies have been nearly unstoppable when fully healthy. UConn ranks in the top five in the country in field goal percentage (No. 1), points per play and per 100 possessions (No. 1), 3-point percentage (No. 5), assists per game (No. 3), fewest turnovers per game (No. 3) and margin of victory (No. 1). In Paige Bueckers, Sarah Strong and Azzi Fudd, the Huskies have the best collection of three offensive players in the Final Four (by a sizable margin).
Bueckers continues to break her own records and those of so many UConn greats before her. She holds the highest career per-game scoring average (19.9) in Huskies history, and her 105 points in the past three games is the most prolific three-game stretch the program has ever seen. Strong is the best freshman in the country and one of the best first-year players the sport has seen in a long time. Her 611 points as a freshman rank second at UConn only to Maya Moore's 678. The Huskies are 25-1 since Fudd has been back in the lineup and healthy, and she's shooting 48.0% on 3-pointers in the NCAA tournament.
While the average winning score in the other three regions was 66.2, UConn averaged 80 points in its two wins in Spokane. It's the best offense in the country and will be the catalyst if the Huskies win their first title since 2016.
UConn's fatal flaw: A lack of size. The Huskies have navigated around it all season because of their ability to shoot, pass and limit turnovers, plus Strong's incredible versatility. But it might not be enough with Betts looming in the semifinals. Jana El Alfy is 6-5, but she's playing 13.5 minutes per game in the NCAA tournament. Auriemma has essentially stopped playing 6-3 Ice Brady. That leaves nearly all interior defensive responsibilities to Strong. Her performance against USC's Kiki Iriafen and Oklahoma's Raegan Beers was an underrated aspect of UConn's dominance in the Spokane Regional 4. But having the 6-2 freshman guard taller players comes with a risk if Strong gets in foul trouble and the Huskies lose her offense because she's on the bench. That could undermine UConn's bid for a 12th championship.
Inside intel from Spokane
• Friday's semifinal matchup will be a clash of styles. "One team that plays through the post and ... has a ton of great shooters," USC coach Lindsay Gottlieb said, "against a team that spreads the floor and can play at times five guards, if you call Sarah [Strong] a guard." As mentioned above, UConn hasn't faced a post presence as dominant as Betts, a first-team All-American who ranked second in the nation in post scoring this season, per Synergy Sports tracking. But at the same time, Strong's ability to shoot the 3 (36% this season) gives UConn the ability to pull opposing post players out of the paint. That was a challenge for Oklahoma's Raegan Beers, who had 10 points on 3-of-11 shooting in UConn's lopsided Sweet 16 win. Betts is more comfortable defending on the perimeter, making this a matchup to watch.
• Fudd's mentality has helped her return as UConn's third-leading scorer and most dangerous 3-point threat. In addition to rehabbing the ACL tear suffered in November 2023 that kept her out of last year's Final Four, Fudd began seeing a sports psychologist this season to strengthen the mental side of her game. "Having that kind of foundation of talking to them all year has helped now," Fudd said during the regional. "Being in March, I just have a better sense of where I am, not getting stressed, not playing into the pressure."
That came through Monday. Fudd missed all nine shots she took over the first three quarters. After making a 3-pointer when Auriemma drew up an elevator play to free her on the opening possession of the final period -- one Fudd said she was surprised to see called for her -- she went on to score eight key points as the Huskies extended a lead that had been trimmed to five points. "Now that this game is over and we won, I'm kind of glad that I had it and I have an example," Fudd said postgame. "I know exactly what not to do. I know the blueprint that I don't want to continue. I think having this was important, getting through it was important, and like I said, leaving this in Spokane and bringing a different mindset to Tampa." -- Kevin Pelton
Final Four predictions
Texas vs. South Carolina
Charlie Creme: South Carolina 62, Texas 59
Alexa Philippou: South Carolina 63, Texas 52
Michael Voepel: South Carolina 65, Texas 60
UConn vs. UCLA
Charlie Creme: UConn 82, UCLA 78
Alexa Philippou: UConn 72, UCLA 70
Michael Voepel: UCLA 75, UConn 73