The Iowa Hawkeyes won the Big Ten title and now enter their first game Saturday (3 p.m. ET, ABC/ESPN App) in the women's 2024 NCAA tournament as a No. 1 seed. The accomplishments and fanfare of this season would seem to be leading up to a storybook return to the Final Four for the Hawkeyes and their star player Caitlin Clark -- and maybe even that elusive first national title in Iowa's history.
But not so fast.
Yes, Clark has been the face of college basketball this season, without a doubt.
Already a household name for her feats in the NCAA tournament last spring -- leading the Hawkeyes within a win of the national championship with 31.8 points per game throughout the tourney -- Clark went into 2023-24 with high expectations. She has somehow met all of them so far. That included passing the all-time Division I women's scoring record (formerly held by Kelsey Plum), the women's major-college record (formerly held by Lynette Woodard) and the overall D-I record (formerly held by Pete Maravich).
But before fans of Iowa, Clark and the women's game as a whole get their brackets set and add championship game tickets to their electronic wallets, expectations need to be tempered around another deep tourney run for these Hawkeyes.
Here's why.
According to ESPN Analytics' NCAA tournament forecast model, which is based on the women's Basketball Power Index (BPI) ratings, Iowa came out of Selection Sunday with a 32.9% Final Four probability. In other words, there's a 67.1% chance Clark and Iowa will not be in Cleveland, back on the sport's biggest stage, a few weeks from now.
That's far behind the odds for fellow No. 1 seeds South Carolina (64.8%) and Texas (43.1%), and even trails second-seeded Stanford (37.4%) and third-seeded UConn (57.1%). What gives? Why do the Hawkeyes have double the chance of losing before the Final Four as they do of making it?
One big factor is that Iowa's metrics aren't quite as good as those we see from the rest of the nation's top contenders.
Although it's in the Albany 1 region, let's take South Carolina as an instructive comparison. Sure, the Hawkeyes upset the Gamecocks in the Final Four last season, but coach Dawn Staley's team hasn't lost since. The Gamecocks have the nation's second-ranked BPI offense and its top defense, making them the logical pick for the tournament's No. 1 overall seed. Juxtapose that with Iowa, which does have the top BPI offense in the country -- thanks in large part to Clark's brilliance -- but only the 30th-best defense, and the Hawkeyes' overall rating gets dragged down.
None of the other teams ranked ahead of Iowa in the BPI rankings sits any worse than 12th on its weaker side of the ball (Stanford is No. 12 on defense). That comparative liability could leave Iowa vulnerable in the tournament, barring even more superhuman play from Clark on offense than usual.
Even more importantly, the NCAA selection committee put a surprising number of roadblocks in the Hawkeyes' path.
As the No. 2 overall seed in the field behind the Gamecocks, Iowa should theoretically face an easier road to the Final Four than the other two remaining No. 1 seeds. But according to the numbers, that isn't the case.
Looking at the average BPI of the teams each top seed would need to beat to reach the Final Four without any upsets (according to the ratings), Iowa's likely Albany 2 opponents carry a BPI of +25.68 on average. That figure means the Hawkeyes would go through the toughest set of opponents for any No. 1 seed, even if only by a slight margin over Portland 3's top seed, USC:
Iowa Hawkeyes
Round of 64: Holy Cross (-1.7)
Round of 32: West Virginia (+29.5)
Sweet 16: Colorado (+33.8)
Elite 8: LSU (+41.1)
Average: +25.68
USC Trojans
Round of 64: Texas A&M-CC (-2.5)
Round of 32: Kansas (+25.5)
Sweet 16: Baylor (+32.9)
Elite 8: UConn (+45.7)
Average: +25.40
Texas Longhorns
Round of 64: Drexel (-1.0)
Round of 32: Alabama (+26.1)
Sweet 16: Utah (+33.1)
Elite 8: Stanford (+42.7)
Average: +25.23
South Carolina Gamecocks
Round of 64: Presbyterian (-17.5)
Round of 32: Michigan St (+29.2)
Sweet 16: Indiana (+35.5)
Elite 8: Notre Dame (+40.2)
Average: +21.85
Along the Hawkeyes' path, they will start off the tournament against No. 16 seed Holy Cross Saturday (3 p.m. ET, ABC/ESPN App). Interesting side note for those who love their NCAA facts: It has been 26 years since a No. 16 seed has upset a No. 1 in the women's tournament. Will that change at Iowa's expense this year? Don't bet on it. BPI gives the Hawkeyes a greater than 99% chance to advance past the Crusaders.
Assuming Iowa wins, the Hawkeyes would likely face the strongest No. 8 seed in the tournament field according to BPI, West Virginia; the strongest No. 5 seed, Colorado, which would be favored over No. 4 Kansas State; the second-strongest No. 3 seed, LSU, which also happens to have beaten Iowa in the national title game last year; and a formidable No. 2 in UCLA, with a BPI of +40.1 that isn't far off from Iowa's +41.2 mark. (The way to read those numbers is that Iowa would only be favored by a shade over a point against the Bruins at a neutral court, other factors such as travel distance, rest and altitude being equal.)
That treacherous journey gives Clark and the Hawkeyes many chances to falter en route to another Final Four appearance -- not exactly the glide path to Cleveland that fans who want to see the game's biggest star there might be expecting.
Of course, Iowa went into last year's tournament as a No. 2 seed with comparably low Final Four odds, only to have Clark shine more as the lights got brighter. Nothing here says that can't happen again. And if Iowa does battle through all of this, it would make the program's second consecutive national semifinal appearance even sweeter -- and mean the Hawkeyes are an even more formidable threat than the numbers indicated. To the latter point, there is evidence from other March Madness test cases that more battle-tested teams tend to do better later in the tournament.
The version of Iowa that survives the gauntlet of Albany 2 is a version that is probably even more ready for the Final Four than it was a year ago, with Clark playing at her absolute peak. And if that happens, women's college hoops fans could really be in for a show.
Neil Paine is a contributor for ESPN.