Expected fantasy points (xFP) strips away player talent and efficiency and focuses solely on opportunity.
FORP -- fantasy points over replacement player -- is the difference between a player's actual fantasy point total (FF points) and his xFP (or expected total).
Wide receiver adjustments are made as follows:
Rushing attempts: No change
Rushing yardage: Rush attempts multiplied by a rusher's expected yardage based on position and rush direction
Rushing touchdowns: Rushing xTD
Targets: No change
Receptions: Targets multiplied by a receiver's expected catch rate based on depth of throw, location and position
Receiving yardage: Targets multiplied by a receiver's expected yardage based on depth of throw, location and position
Receiving touchdowns: Receiving xTD
Two-point conversions: xTD multiplied by the league average 2-point rate
Fumbles lost: Touches multiplied by the league average rate
Return touchdowns: Excluded due to extreme rareness and randomness
Below is the 2025 xFP leaderboard for wide receivers:
2025 xFP & xTD leaderboards 2025 xFP: Wide Receivers (incl. adjusted stats) Rk. Player xFP Actual FORP G Rec Yds TD 1. Ja'Marr Chase , CIN 137 150 13 7 55 599 3 2. Davante Adams , LAR 124 110 -14 7 33 512 7 3. Chris Olave , NO 122 104 -18 7 45 544 4 4. Jaxon Smith-Njigba , SEA 119 155 36 7 42 621 2 5. Puka Nacua , LAR 109 139 30 6 46 513 2 6. Keenan Allen , LAC 109 112 3 7 40 447 4 7. George Pickens , DAL 109 133 24 7 31 456 5 8. Amon-Ra St. Brown , DET 106 147 41 7 42 439 3 9. Drake London , ATL 99 95 -4 6 38 472 2 10. Emeka Egbuka , TB 98 117 19 7 30 491 3 11. Ladd McConkey , LAC 97 87 -10 7 37 425 3 12. Brian Thomas Jr. , JAC 95 77 -18 7 34 466 2 13. Tetairoa McMillan , CAR 94 83 -11 7 30 456 3 14. Justin Jefferson , MIN 93 93 0 6 32 437 3 15. Wan'Dale Robinson , NYG 90 92 2 7 35 422 2 16. Courtland Sutton , DEN 89 100 11 7 30 424 3 17. Troy Franklin , DEN 88 69 -19 7 28 385 3 18. Rome Odunze , CHI 86 90 3 6 28 405 3 19. Quentin Johnston , LAC 86 97 11 6 26 400 3 20. Garrett Wilson , NYJ 84 100 16 6 35 405 1 21. Hollywood Brown , KC 83 88 4 7 32 351 3 22. Jerry Jeudy , CLE 82 48 -35 7 29 431 2 23. Michael Pittman Jr. , IND 81 102 21 7 33 354 2 24. Deebo Samuel Sr. , WAS 80 94 14 6 30 322 2 25. A.J. Brown , PHI 79 87 7 7 27 421 2 26. Rashid Shaheed , NO 79 78 -1 7 28 371 2 27. Jaylen Waddle , MIA 77 89 11 7 27 355 2 28. Nico Collins , HOU 77 77 0 6 26 366 2 29. DeVonta Smith , PHI 76 100 25 7 29 364 2 30. Travis Hunter , JAC 75 64 -11 7 30 319 2 31. Tee Higgins , CIN 74 74 0 7 22 371 2 32. Zay Flowers , BAL 73 82 8 6 31 353 1 33. Jakobi Meyers , LV 72 62 -11 6 29 320 2 34. Tre Tucker , LV 71 95 23 7 27 296 2 35. Stefon Diggs , NE 71 85 14 7 30 337 1 36. Romeo Doubs , GB 70 79 9 6 21 324 3 37. Marvin Harrison Jr. , ARI 70 76 6 7 23 336 2 38. Malik Nabers , NYG 67 57 -10 4 19 314 3 39. Elic Ayomanor , TEN 64 54 -10 7 22 322 2 40. Tyquan Thornton , KC 63 63 0 7 13 334 3 41. Parker Washington , JAC 61 51 -11 7 19 323 1 42. DK Metcalf , PIT 60 87 27 6 21 276 2 43. Keon Coleman , BUF 59 58 -2 6 21 270 2 44. Malik Washington , MIA 58 43 -15 7 24 210 1 45. DJ Moore , CHI 57 55 -2 6 21 227 1 46. Jameson Williams , DET 57 58 1 7 19 304 1 47. Khalil Shakir , BUF 57 64 7 6 26 247 1 48. Kendrick Bourne , SF 56 64 7 6 25 272 1 49. Xavier Legette , CAR 56 43 -13 5 20 225 2 50. Calvin Ridley , TEN 56 45 -11 6 21 306 1 51. Sterling Shepard , TB 55 57 1 7 23 245 1 52. Dyami Brown , JAC 55 44 -12 6 17 235 2 53. Marvin Mims Jr. , DEN 55 59 4 7 20 245 1 54. Jalen Nailor , MIN 54 39 -15 6 13 197 3 55. Josh Downs , IND 54 54 0 6 23 232 1 56. Xavier Worthy , KC 53 47 -7 5 17 215 2 57. Kayshon Boutte , NE 52 80 27 7 13 246 2 58. Olamide Zaccheaus , CHI 51 36 -15 6 23 214 1 59. JuJu Smith-Schuster , KC 51 54 3 7 22 198 2 60. Isaiah Bond , CLE 50 24 -25 7 16 222 2 61. Jauan Jennings , SF 50 39 -11 5 19 226 1 62. Alec Pierce , IND 49 48 -2 5 12 289 1 63. Jordan Addison , MIN 49 52 3 3 17 228 2 64. Tyreek Hill , MIA 49 54 4 4 19 246 1 65. CeeDee Lamb , DAL 49 60 12 4 19 273 0 66. Mike Evans , TB 49 34 -15 4 14 274 1 67. Cooper Kupp , SEA 48 57 10 7 20 236 1 68. Ricky Pearsall , SF 47 52 6 4 14 264 1 69. Matthew Golden , GB 46 47 1 6 15 198 1 70. Hunter Renfrow , CAR 46 36 -10 6 17 181 2 71. Chimere Dike , TEN 45 30 -15 7 15 164 1 72. Michael Wilson , ARI 45 35 -11 7 15 219 1 73. Jaylin Lane , WAS 42 31 -11 7 14 199 1 74. Tory Horton , SEA 39 44 5 7 11 165 2 75. Darnell Mooney , ATL 39 25 -14 4 13 194 1 76. Xavier Hutchinson , HOU 38 38 0 6 13 137 2 77. Jalen Tolbert , DAL 38 27 -11 7 12 169 1 78. DeMario Douglas , NE 37 37 0 7 16 138 1 79. Calvin Austin III , PIT 36 36 0 4 10 168 2 80. Tez Johnson , TB 36 40 4 6 13 169 1 81. Andrei Iosivas , CIN 36 29 -7 7 14 172 1 82. Rashod Bateman , BAL 34 29 -5 6 12 177 1 83. Cedric Tillman , CLE 34 34 0 4 12 154 1 84. Josh Reynolds , NYJ 34 23 -10 5 11 186 1 85. Dontayvion Wicks , GB 33 26 -7 6 11 174 1 86. Ryan Flournoy , DAL 33 33 0 7 13 142 1 87. Joshua Palmer , BUF 33 37 4 6 11 181 1 88. Darius Slayton , NYG 31 27 -4 5 12 159 1 89. Greg Dortch , ARI 30 29 -1 7 14 94 1 90. KaVontae Turpin , DAL 30 38 8 5 9 113 1 91. Jordan Whittington , LAR 30 25 -4 7 13 116 0 92. Brandin Cooks , NO 30 27 -3 7 12 144 0 93. Chris Moore , WAS 30 31 2 6 9 143 1 94. Tyler Lockett , TEN 29 23 -6 7 14 151 0 95. Dont'e Thornton Jr. , LV 28 14 -14 7 8 181 0 96. Zay Jones , ARI 28 30 2 6 10 159 0 97. Luther Burden III , CHI 28 36 8 6 12 114 0 98. Christian Kirk , HOU 28 21 -7 3 11 129 1 99. Terry McLaurin , WAS 27 25 -3 3 10 149 0 100. Mack Hollins , NE 27 35 8 7 9 116 1 101. Jaylin Noel , HOU 27 26 -2 6 9 112 1 102. Luke McCaffrey , WAS 27 46 19 7 8 129 1 103. Adonai Mitchell , IND 23 21 -3 6 8 133 0 104. Jayden Higgins , HOU 23 27 4 6 8 102 1 105. DeAndre Hopkins , BAL 23 39 16 6 5 121 1 106. Chris Godwin , TB 23 11 -11 2 8 117 1 107. Ray-Ray McCloud III , ATL 23 12 -10 4 9 101 0 108. Rashee Rice , KC 22 23 1 1 8 56 1 109. Demarcus Robinson , SF 22 16 -6 4 7 118 1 110. Van Jefferson , TEN 22 26 4 7 9 108 0 111. Casey Washington , ATL 21 12 -9 4 6 130 0 112. Jahan Dotson , PHI 20 18 -2 7 7 115 0 113. Tre Harris , LAC 20 19 -1 7 8 98 0 114. Kalif Raymond , DET 20 22 3 7 9 84 0 115. Lil'Jordan Humphrey , NYG 19 10 -10 2 5 92 1 116. Pat Bryant , DEN 19 10 -9 7 7 72 1 117. Allen Lazard , NYJ 18 16 -2 5 5 66 1 118. Jalin Hyatt , NYG 18 5 -13 5 5 105 0 119. Arian Smith , NYJ 17 6 -11 7 6 83 0 120. Brycen Tremayne , CAR 17 20 3 7 7 94 0 121. Tyler Johnson , NYJ 17 19 2 6 7 88 0 122. Tutu Atwell , LAR 17 26 10 6 5 92 0 123. Adam Thielen , MIN 16 12 -4 6 5 83 0 124. Jack Bech , LV 16 14 -1 7 6 72 0 125. Elijah Moore , BUF 15 19 3 5 4 53 0 126. Nick Westbrook-Ikhine , MIA 15 11 -4 7 8 68 0 127. Isaac TeSlaa , DET 15 20 5 7 2 53 1 128. Tyrell Shavers , BUF 15 10 -5 6 6 80 0 129. Jimmy Horn Jr. , CAR 15 14 -1 3 5 57 0 130. Jamari Thrash , CLE 15 16 1 7 7 76 0 131. Ashton Dulin , IND 13 12 -1 6 3 60 0 132. Noah Brown , WAS 12 7 -6 2 4 61 0 133. Devaughn Vele , NO 12 13 1 6 3 31 1 134. Tim Patrick , JAC 11 16 5 7 4 48 1 135. Marquez Valdes-Scantling , SF 11 8 -3 5 4 67 0 136. Savion Williams , GB 11 9 -2 6 4 21 0 137. Tylan Wallace , BAL 11 13 2 6 2 36 1 138. Jayden Reed , GB 10 14 3 2 3 47 0 139. D'Wayne Eskridge , MIA 10 8 -2 7 4 60 0 140. Devontez Walker , BAL 10 21 11 5 1 29 1 141. Kameron Johnson , TB 9 17 7 7 3 45 0 142. Kyle Williams , NE 9 4 -5 7 3 42 0 143. Ryan Miller , TB 8 11 3 7 2 41 0 144. Curtis Samuel , BUF 8 13 4 2 2 35 0 145. Roman Wilson , PIT 8 8 0 6 4 35 0 146. Xavier Smith , LAR 8 8 0 7 3 40 0 147. Beaux Collins , NYG 7 2 -6 7 2 37 0 148. Mitchell Tinsley , CIN 7 10 3 7 2 30 0 149. Gage Larvadain , CLE 7 4 -3 3 3 36 0 150. Justin Watson , HOU 7 6 -1 2 2 27 0 151. Trent Sherfield , DEN 7 5 -2 7 3 30 0 152. Konata Mumpfield , LAR 6 9 3 7 2 19 0 153. Robbie Chosen , WAS 6 8 2 1 3 27 0 154. John Metchie III , PHI 6 6 0 6 4 19 0 155. Ben Skowronek , PIT 5 9 4 6 1 16 0 156. Skyy Moore , SF 5 5 -1 7 2 20 0 157. KeAndre Lambert-Smith , LAC 5 1 -4 5 2 23 0 158. Dareke Young , SEA 4 7 3 6 1 24 0 159. David Sills V , ATL 4 2 -2 6 1 19 0 160. Scotty Miller , PIT 3 2 -2 6 1 12 0 161. KhaDarel Hodge , ATL 3 0 -3 5 0 12 0 162. Malachi Corley , CLE 3 5 1 3 2 10 0 163. Jason Brownlee , KC 3 0 -3 5 0 7 0 164. Malik Heath , GB 3 7 3 6 1 22 0 165. Tay Martin , WAS 3 4 1 3 2 15 0 166. Braxton Berrios , HOU 3 1 -2 1 1 16 0 167. Jake Bobo , SEA 3 4 1 6 1 16 0 168. Jalen Coker , CAR 3 0 -3 1 1 21 0 169. Nikko Remigio , KC 3 4 2 7 1 9 0 170. Alex Bachman , LV 2 2 0 6 1 13 0 171. Xavier Weaver , ARI 2 0 -2 3 0 12 0 172. David Moore , CAR 2 3 1 4 1 7 0 173. Anthony Gould , IND 2 1 -1 7 1 6 0 174. Tai Felton , MIN 2 2 0 6 1 8 0 175. Derius Davis , LAC 2 -2 -3 4 0 0 0 176. Mason Tipton , NO 2 0 -2 6 0 10 0 177. Malik Turner , SF 2 0 -2 3 1 6 0 178. Kevin Austin Jr. , NO 1 0 -1 1 0 10 0 179. Bryce Oliver , TEN 1 2 1 2 1 7 0 180. Charlie Jones , CIN 0 0 0 7 0 0 0 181. Devin Duvernay , CHI 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 182. Myles Price , MIN 0 -2 -2 6 0 0 0 183. Jamal Agnew , ATL 0 0 0 4 0 0 0
