It has been only two days since WNBA players were permitted to sign new contracts with teams, and though there's plenty more movement to come, the biggest dominoes have already fallen.
Of the top 10 free agents by my projections, eight have already signed or committed to sign. The top overall free agent, Breanna Stewart, is all but certain to re-sign with the New York Liberty after leading them to the first championship in franchise history last fall. The other free agent in the top 10, Belgian forward Emma Meesseman, won't take meetings until mid-February, according to league sources.
As the dust settles from a busy week that featured four recent All-WNBA picks changing teams via trade (Jewell Loyd, Kelsey Plum, Satou Sabally and Alyssa Thomas), Brittney Griner leaving the Phoenix Mercury for the Atlanta Dream, and several other All-Stars landing in new spots as free agents, it's not too early to consider winners and losers from a star-studded WNBA offseason. Let's take a first look at which teams have improved -- and which ones might have a tougher time in 2025.
Winner: Phoenix Mercury
Surprisingly, there has been little hype about the Mercury building a super team, landing both Sabally and Thomas via sign-and-trade deals, but the measured response makes sense when you consider how the 2024 season played out. This time last year, the Seattle Storm were the clear winners of the offseason, having added Skylar Diggins-Smith and Nneka Ogwumike, and they improved by 14 wins in the regular season, but it didn't ultimately translate into any playoff wins.
Like the Storm did last year, Phoenix still has an uphill climb toward contending for a championship. Despite getting good value in both trades, the Mercury will have limited depth around their new stars and holdover All-WNBA pick Kahleah Copper. Phoenix missed out on bringing DeWanna Bonner back to the Valley, pivoting to sign veteran guard Sami Whitcomb on Sunday.
Still, nearly any front office in the league would happily accept the challenge of creating a strategy around three stars as good as the Mercury's. After a couple of aimless years at the tail end of Diana Taurasi's legendary career, Phoenix now has a direction and stars to build around going forward.
Winners: Stars looking for a change of scenery
In part because free agents are reluctant to sign contracts longer than one season ahead of an anticipated cap spike in 2026, when new national TV deals will kick in at the same time the WNBA must negotiate a new collective bargaining agreement with its players, teams got less mileage out of the core designation this year.
Sabally and Thomas got to pick their destinations despite other teams having more to offer in trade than Phoenix. So too did Plum, although those three-team negotiations were more complex. Because Loyd was under contract, Seattle could have sent her anywhere after a trade request. Instead, because the Storm were able to get the No. 2 overall pick out of the deal with the Aces and Los Angeles Sparks, Loyd ended up joining a championship core on Seattle's biggest rivals.
Possible loser: Free agency in 2026
We've been anticipating even bigger fireworks a year from now because nearly every veteran player in the league has the chance to be a free agent, but this many players choosing new homes this offseason suggests that might not come to pass.
Undoubtedly, we'll see some players rethink their decisions in a year. More likely, though, we'll see a lot of what happened with Ogwumike, who signed a one-year deal to join the Storm last winter and was never considered likely to leave; she agreed to re-sign with Seattle on Friday.
Winner: Indiana Fever
Having gone 9-5 after the Olympic break behind the duo of No. 1 picks and Rookie of the Year winners Aliyah Boston and Caitlin Clark, the Fever already looked like a rising force. Especially considering its massive cap space, Indiana loomed as a team to watch in free agency. At first, aside from bringing back Kelsey Mitchell on the core qualifying offer, Indiana seemed to be striking out on its targets -- but that changed in a big way over the weekend.
With a commitment in hand from Natasha Howard to return to her first WNBA team, the Fever kept adding this weekend, inking six-time All-Star DeWanna Bonner on Sunday. Suddenly, a team with minimal playoff experience has two multiple-time champions who happen to fit neatly in the two weakest spots in their starting five. With the Connecticut Sun breaking up and the Storm losing Loyd, Indiana now looks like one of the top four teams in the WNBA.
Loser: Golden State Valkyries (at least in 2025)
When the Valkyries passed over higher-priced options in the expansion draft to take a league-high amount of cap space into free agency, they seemed like a serious threat to land at least one star. Golden State can still outbid other suitors, but at this point in free agency it is looking at building around role players rather than big names.
In the long run, that might work well for the Valkyries, who can position themselves near the top of the 2026 lottery odds and add a face of the franchise for years to come -- especially if the top two potential prospects in this year's draft, Connecticut guard Paige Bueckers and Notre Dame's Olivia Miles, decide to return to college for a final season of eligibility. League sources cited that possibility to ESPN's Alexa Philippou, explaining why the Sparks were willing to trade away the No. 2 pick in this year's draft.
Winner: Karl Smesko
When Griner signed with the Dream, we wondered how a post-up center might fit in Smesko's pace-and-space offense. Then Atlanta signed a second Connecticut Sun All-Star Brionna Jones. Smesko never had access to that kind of post talent at Florida Gulf Coast, and it will be fascinating to see how it works.
Griner led the WNBA in post-ups last season, per Second Spectrum tracking, while Jones ranked fourth. By contrast, Smesko's FGCU teams had fewer than 100 total post-ups that ended in a shot, shooting foul or turnover over the past eight seasons, according to Synergy Sports charting.
Finding proper spacing when Griner and Jones play together could be a challenge, but adding them to perimeter holdovers Jordin Canada, Allisha Gray and Rhyne Howard gives the Dream one of the league's most talented rosters. And the upside of having both Griner and Jones on the roster? Atlanta will have an All-Star center on the court at all times.
Winners: Las Vegas Aces and Minnesota Lynx
It's impossible to call the Liberty losers. They still have a chance to add the No. 7 pick and Marine Johannes to the core of last year's champions, plus cap space to add a veteran free agent to replace departed Courtney Vandersloot. New York is rightfully favored to repeat, per ESPN BET.
Nonetheless, the two teams the Liberty beat in the semifinals and finals en route to the 2024 title undoubtedly breathed a sigh of relief when Sabally chose the Mercury over New York. Given how little Phoenix had to trade for Sabally, it's possible the Liberty could have added her without subtracting substantially from their core -- a scenario that would have left New York far and away the league's most talented team. Taking down the Liberty looks a little less daunting now.
Loser: Rachid Meziane
When Meziane was interviewing to become the Sun's head coach, the Belgium national team coach surely envisioned how he might build an offense around Thomas, Jones and Bonner, deploying DiJonai Carrington as a defensive stopper. Now, all four of those players have gone elsewhere, leaving Connecticut's roster in a transitional state.
The Sun's cupboard is hardly bare. They still have Marina Mabrey and added Natasha Cloud in the Thomas sign-and-trade deal; they announced veteran center Tina Charles' return to Connecticut on Sunday. The Sun have the potential to make the playoffs for a ninth consecutive season if they fill out their frontcourt around those players. But the truth is that this Connecticut group will not resemble the team that has reached the WNBA semifinals each of the past six years.
Winner: Chicago Sky front office
Rebuilding is an unattractive option for the Sun in part because they don't control their 2026 first-round pick. Chicago has the ability to swap Phoenix's first-round pick for Connecticut's next year, and with the Sun's stars heading elsewhere, that return suddenly looks far better for the Sky -- particularly because the Mercury's 2026 first-rounder now appears less valuable.
Chicago is rooting for Connecticut's pick to land in the lottery because the Sky also agreed to swap their own first-round pick with Minnesota's to get the 2024 draft pick they used on All-Star Angel Reese. With little incentive to lose in 2025, Chicago has built aggressively around Reese and fellow 2024 first-rounder Kamilla Cardoso, adding veterans Rebecca Allen and Courtney Vandersloot. All told, the Sky have to like how the offseason has gone.