Karl Smesko built Florida Gulf Coast into one of the most consistent mid-major women's basketball teams in the country over the past 22 years. During that time, one question periodically came up: Would he move to a major conference?
Instead, Smesko has left FGCU for the WNBA. The Atlanta Dream named him their new coach Wednesday. Six weeks ago, the Dream parted with Tanisha Wright after three seasons and started a hiring process that included a large candidate pool, Atlanta general manager Dan Padover told ESPN.
Padover said Smesko, 54, stood out particularly because of his strategic acumen, and in the end the Dream were able to lure him away from Fort Myers, Florida.
Atlanta finished eighth at 15-25 in the 2024 season, losing to the eventual champion New York Liberty in the first round of the WNBA playoffs. Led by a core that includes 2022 No. 1 draft pick Rhyne Howard, the Dream want to rise back into the WNBA's top tier. The franchise has been to the WNBA Finals three times, in 2010, 2011 and 2013.
Can Smesko help put the pieces together to elevate the Dream? ESPN's Charlie Creme, Alexa Philippou and Michael Voepel look at Smesko's credentials and how this move impacts the Dream and FGCU.
What does Smesko bring to the Dream?
Creme: With Smesko's hiring, the Dream have fully entered the world of analytics. No program in college basketball has embraced the "3-pointers or layups only" concept more than FGCU under Smesko. From the 2019-20 season through 2022-23, the Eagles led the country in 3-pointers attempted and made. Even last season, when the Eagles were merely sixth in 3-pointers launched, they ranked second in the country in 3-point rate.
Smesko likes his teams to take as many 3s as possible or drive to the basket: Take the shot that brings the most value or the one that has the highest rate of success. It will be interesting to see how professional players adapt to this philosophy, or if Smesko modifies his approach -- but expect Atlanta to take fewer jump shots from inside the arc next season.
Voepel: Former Dream coach Nicki Collen was an assistant at FGCU for Smesko for the 2014-15 season before she moved to the WNBA. Now the head coach at Baylor, Collen has praised Smesko's basketball IQ.
Smesko's name has come up for other college coaching positions over the years. In 2017, he was offered the job for the USC Trojans women's program. But he stayed at FGCU, saying it was "hard to leave something that you really love and have invested so much in."
So it says a lot about how hard the Dream went after Smesko that he left what has long been his comfort zone. Atlanta, under new ownership since 2021, believes Smesko's basketball philosophy fits the league even if he doesn't have WNBA experience. His Eagles' system has long embraced the concept of positionless basketball, which has become more the norm in the WNBA.
Is Smesko a good fit for Atlanta?
Philippou: Smesko's offensive system is likely to be a breath of fresh air in Atlanta given the Dream's offensive efficiency ranked last in the league in 2024 and their pace came in second to last (and neither of those challenges were limited to last season). It will be fascinating to see what that means for the Dream's roster construction moving forward.
They'll likely continue to build around Howard and Allisha Gray, who are strong 3-point shooters. But for a team that converted 30.8% from beyond the arc last season, and whose bigs weren't known for stretching the floor, it won't be shocking to see some roster turnover to bring in players who fit better in Smesko's system.
Voepel: Personality-wise, Smesko is more introverted than many of his peers. How will the Dream players respond to that? Free agent Tina Charles, who brought a strong veteran presence to the Dream in 2024, told ESPN in September that she hopes to play at least another season. But Charles, who turns 36 in December, was close to Wright, who was also a former teammate. So we'll see if Charles, who averaged 14.9 points and 9.6 rebounds in 2024, is back with Atlanta in 2025.
Will we see more college coaches make the jump to the WNBA?
Philippou: It's not a given that more coaches follow in Smesko's footsteps. Yes, the year-round nature of the college game is grueling, and many coaches point to NIL and transfer portal changes as making their jobs more transactional. Still, coaching contracts at the college level tend to have more security, in contract length and in compensation, than those in the pro game.
Just look at this offseason, where six WNBA coaches were fired, and none but Wright had had been with their teams for more than two years. And while franchises such as the Las Vegas Aces and Phoenix Mercury handed out seven-figure deals to Becky Hammon and Nate Tibbetts, respectively, that's not the norm.
As a frame of reference, USA Today's head coach salary database lists 18 women's college coaches as earning at least $1 million this season (Smesko, at $450,000, ranked 59th in the database). That means for big-name coaches such as Dawn Staley or Jeff Walz or Adia Barnes, they'd likely be taking a pay cut to come to the WNBA.
If/when the rest of the WNBA invests in more lucrative coaching contracts, more college coaches might consider making the jump.
Where does this leave Florida Gulf Coast?
Voepel: Smesko, an Ohio native, built FGCU from the ground up: launching the program in Division II in 2002 and moving with it to Division I in 2007. He has been the program's only coach -- until now. One of his former players, Chelsea Lyles, has been promoted from Eagles associate head coach to head coach.
These are big shoes to fill: The Eagles have won 14 of 17 regular-season titles since joining the Atlantic Sun, and never finished lower than second. They have had perfect conference records seven times, and Smesko is a 13-time ASUN coach of the year. FGCU has played in 10 NCAA tournaments.
But if anyone knows the system as well as Smesko, it's Lyles who, between her time as a player and on the coaching staff, is now in her 17th season at FGCU.
Creme: On three occasions, Smesko's Eagles won NCAA tournament games as No. 12 seeds, including in 2022 and 2023. Only once since 2011 did FGCU lose more than one game in the ASUN. In 2022 the Eagles beat Michigan State in the regular season. Last year FGCU toppled North Carolina. Smesko routinely scheduled as many major conference opponents as he could, even when many feared playing against his style. And he did it largely without big names on his roster.
The Aces' Kierstan Bell is the only WNBA player he coached at FGCU.