WNBA playoffs 2023: Are the New York Liberty now the favorite?

The 2023 WNBA playoffs are here, with the No. 3 seed Connecticut Sun hosting the No. 6 seed Minnesota Lynx on Wednesday (8 p.m. ET, ESPN2/ESPN App), followed by the No. 1 seed Las Vegas Aces welcoming the No. 8 seed Chicago Sky (10 p.m. ET, ESPN/ESPN App). The other two series kick off Friday when the No. 7 seed Washington Mystics travel to the No. 2 seed New York Liberty (7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN2/ESPN App) and the No. 5 seed Atlanta Dream visit the No. 4 Dallas Wings (9:30 p.m. ET, ESPN2/ESPN App).

So much focus has been on a potential WNBA Finals clash between the superteam Aces and Liberty, as the former hope to become the first repeat champions in two decades and the latter seek to win the franchise's first WNBA title. But the other six teams have plenty on the line.

Chicago made the postseason despite a midseason head coaching change and two season-ending injuries. In the first year following Sylvia Fowles' retirement in Minnesota, the storied Lynx overcame early adversity in a 0-6 start to return to the playoffs after a one-year hiatus.

The Wings and Dream are also looking to solidify new chapters for their organizations: First-year head coach Latricia Trammel could lead Dallas past the first round for the first time since 2009, when the franchise was based in Detroit; Tanisha Wright returns the Dream to the postseason for the first time since 2018 following a tumultuous few years.

The Sun own the league's longest active streak of consecutive playoff appearances (seven), but after a transformative offseason look fairly different from last year's squad that made a Finals run. And then there's the Mystics, arguably the most intriguing team in the playoffs given their indisputable potential but slew of injuries. Washington's health remains a big question, and it's unclear whether Shakira Austin will be available, but their matchup against the Liberty should be as good a series as any in the first round.

ESPN.com's M.A. Voepel, Alexa Philippou and Kevin Pelton break down the biggest storylines we're watching in the playoffs and, along with ESPN Fantasy Games writer Eric Moody, offer predictions for which team will pop championship champagne in October.

Are the superteams on a collision course? Which team other than Las Vegas or New York has the best chance of reaching the WNBA Finals?

Pelton: An Aces-Liberty Finals is certainly more likely than not, but there's a tendency to overstate the certainty for almost any favorite. Although Dallas has been better over the last two months, I'd give Connecticut the better chance of crashing the Finals by virtue of the Sun's playoff experience and more favorable path to the semifinals.

Philippou: Assuming the first round is all chalk, it's tough to imagine the Sun winning three games against the Liberty after going 0-4 against them in the regular season (of course, Connecticut beat Chicago last year in the semifinals after going winless against them in the regular season). If the Mystics take down the Liberty and face the Sun in the semifinals, Connecticut has a 4-0 edge in their season series. A good rule of thumb I've developed after covering the Sun for five years: Underestimate Connecticut at your own risk.

Dallas has shown it can beat Las Vegas, crushing the Aces in paint scoring and rebounding in a 80-78 win July 7. But should they advance, the Wings must stake a claim defensively to get the better of the defending champs in a series. In each of its last two meetings versus Las Vegas, Dallas allowed 104 points.

Voepel: The Aces lost back-to-back games once this season (to Washington and New York), while the Liberty did not. That tells you how unlikely it will be for either to lose a series to any team except each other.

It seems like the best odds of disrupting their potential Finals matchup will come if one loses in the best-of-three first round. So, possibly the Mystics -- being the best version of themselves -- upsetting New York.

The oddsmakers -- Caesars Sportsbook has the Aces favored to win the 2023 title at -160, with the Liberty behind them at +135 -- aren't keen on that possibility.

The Aces were the heavy favorite most of the season, but they lost five times since Aug. 6. The majority of our panel picked the Liberty to win the 2023 title. What caused the shift?

Pelton: The loss of Candace Parker is the single biggest factor. Las Vegas lineups with all four All-Stars (Chelsea Gray, Kelsey Plum, A'ja Wilson and Jackie Young) have been just as good with Kiah Stokes and Alysha Clark alongside them, outsourcing opponents by 21.4 points per 100 possessions after the All-Star break as compared to plus-23.4 before it, according to my analysis of lineup data from WNBA Advanced Stats.

However, if any of those four stars is off the court, the Aces have been outscored since the break (minus-2 points per 100 possessions) as compared to a dominant plus-15.8 when Parker was healthy in the first half of the season. The Vegas starters are still good enough to win a title, but there's a lot less margin for error if Parker -- who had foot surgery in July -- is unable to return in time for the Finals.

Philippou: The Liberty beat Las Vegas three times since the start of August, including the Commissioner's Cup championship. They have simply come together as the team they were anticipated to be as they've had time to play together, plus Jones is finally healthy and comfortable in New York's system.