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          Should we worry about USMNT's World Cup prospects after emphatic Japan loss?

          • Ryan O'HanlonSep 23, 2022, 03:05 PM ET
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              Ryan O'Hanlon is a staff writer for ESPN.com. He's also the author of "Net Gains: Inside the Beautiful Game's Analytics Revolution."
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          How's your day going? Me? Well, I woke up at 2:30 in the morning only to realize that my alarm clock was off -- and so were my air conditioner, my internet connection and my refrigerator. Most of my food is spoiled, and it's supposed to get into the high 90s later today where I live. I know what you're thinking: yes, I tried flipping the breaker already. Something must've fried overnight.

          All that said, I'm having a better day than the United States men's national team, and most of their fans who woke up early to watch the team play. On a dry overgrown field in Dusseldorf, Germany, in front of a couple thousand fans in a 55,000-seat stadium, the USMNT began its final pair of pre-World Cup matches by getting absolutely pummeled by Japan's B-team, losing 2-0.

          These games were supposed to, you know, be a warm-up -- a reason to get some training sessions in, build up some more chemistry among a mostly settled squad and gather some more data to make a few final decisions about the fringe World Cup roster spots. Instead, well, the USMNT put in the kind of performance that will make the skeptics continue to question the validity of Gregg Berhalter's project.

          It's only one game, but should you be worried?

          WHY YOU SHOULD WORRY ABOUT THE USMNT

          I have three rules regarding international friendlies. The first: the score doesn't matter. You shouldn't care who wins these games because it's rare that you'll ever watch a friendly in which the primary objective of both sides is to actually win the game. Sometimes it's to get minutes for players who haven't featured much; other times, it's to try out a new system or approach. Plus, with friendlies, you don't really know how hard each player is playing. And if not every player is maxing out their effort in the way they would for a World Cup game, then you can't really judge anyone, let alone the team as a whole.

          - Report: U.S. falls to Japan in World Cup prep game

          Which brings us to rule No. 2: the performances only matter a little bit. If you know specifically what a team's or manager's goal is heading into a friendly, then you can assess the team based on that, but unless you're on the staff you're not going to have that information. Still, these teams play so few games. The USMNT played 14 qualifying matches across a seven-month stretch. Totally ignoring friendlies would mean you're throwing away some extra, potentially valuable information about every national team.

          And so, rule No. 3: ultimately, these games are only worth reading into if a team plays lights out or totally lays an egg. And well, there were multiple eggs out there for the U.S. on Friday: zero goals and zero shots on target.

          But it wasn't just the lack of end product or chance creation.

          Berhalter has talked about wanting his team to dominate with the ball and press high up the field. Although, by most accounts, the U.S. was outplayed in a 2-0 loss against Canada in Hamilton, Ontario, back in January, Berhalter seemed to think otherwise. After the match, he said it was difficult "to remember a more dominant performance away from home that didn't produce a result."

          - Carlisle: USMNT had no answer for Japan in worrying tune-up

          Even though the U.S. didn't create much and conceded a few great chances to Canada, he was more focused on how the U.S. controlled the ball and played the majority of the match in Canada's defensive third. Perhaps his thinking was that his team had finally shown the underlying structure -- the press, the quick passing and positional discipline to keep the ball -- that would, in the long run, lead to better chances for his team.

          Of course, whether this is the best structure to strive toward -- for these players, or even for international soccer in general -- is still up for debate. As my colleague Bill Connelly outlined the other day: "In the four World Cup qualification matches in which the U.S. had under 50% possession, they averaged 2.5 points and 2.8 goals scored per match; in 10 matches over 50%, they averaged 1.5 points and 1.0 goals." Some of the team's best matches under Berhalter came when they ceded more of the ball and played in transition; some of their most frustrating games occurred when they dominated the ball but couldn't break the opponent down.

          - Stream on ESPN+: LaLiga, Bundesliga, MLS, more (U.S.)

          In Dusseldorf, Berhalter got to watch a team that was careful with the ball, comfortable attacking at speed or circulating the ball sideways, and was proficient with the high press. Unfortunately, it was the team he was coaching against. Despite sitting a number of key players for the match, Japan's press absolutely smothered the U.S. all over the pitch:

          Although the U.S. did have more of the ball (58%), Japan dominated the battle for territory. Berhalter's side completed just a 42% share of all the final-third passes in the match, and that stat speaks to another issue. Despite getting pressed into oblivion and having the field tilted against them, the U.S. were unable to attack forward at pace.

          And perhaps this is where we stumble into the issue with friendlies. If the U.S. can't get a foothold in a World Cup game, would they still try to force their way up the field through complex possession-passing that mostly isn't working? They did this against Japan, and maybe there's some value in trying and failing, but in Qatar, maybe they'd shift gears and try to take advantage of the space that their opponents need to leave in behind their back line in order to press.

          WHY YOU SHOULDN'T WORRY ABOUT THE USMNT

          Beyond tactical instructions, a big reason why the U.S. couldn't play more directly is that arguably their three best attacking outlets -- Christian Pulisic, Antonee Robinson and Tim Weah -- were injured and therefore couldn't stress the defense with runs in behind.

          For all his talents, Gio Reyna isn't a player who's going to make runs in behind a back line. Jesus Ferreira plays more of a "9.5 role," where he combines between the lines and sometimes plays other attackers into the space he's vacated. Even Brenden Aaronson seems to be more effective receiving passes between the midfield and defensive lines, rather than behind the back four.

          With a lot riding on their performances, both Sam Vines and Aaron Long both struggled in the first half, which rendered the left side of the field almost totally ineffective in terms of building play into the Japan half. In turn, too much was probably asked of right-back Sergino Dest, who created the team's only decent chance of the game, but also turned the ball over a ton during the 45 minutes he was out there.

          One bizarro positive to take from all of this, though, is the performance of Matt Turner. Since the U.S. were so bad, they conceded a bunch of great chances, which allowed Turner to face a relatively large sample of shots on target. Sure, he conceded twice, but he also made six saves and per Stats Perform, the average keeper would've been expected to concede at least three:

          In a sense, goalkeeper was the team's biggest question mark heading into this window, though Turner seemed to provide an answer. His lack of playing time hasn't affected his typically sterling shot-saving ability. Of course, there are even more questions about the centre-back situation than there were a day ago; both Long and Mark McKenzie had rough days.

          The same could arguably be said of the striker spot. Ferreira was fine, while Josh Sargent didn't attempt a single shot in his 45 minutes on the field. Ricardo Pepi didn't play, and Jordan Pefok isn't on the roster.

          Beyond Turner's performance, then, there are only two other positives to take from the Japan match: 1) it's over, and 2) it really can't get any worse.