Are Chelsea the real deal in the Premier League title race? It is a question barely on the agenda at the start of the month, but by Sunday evening we will have the answer, and it might just be "yes."
After spending almost £1.5 billion ($1.98bn) on new players since the Todd Boehly/Clearlake takeover in May 2022, a Chelsea title challenge is arguably overdue. It should really be the natural outcome of such lavish investment in the playing squad. But did anyone really believe that Enzo Maresca's young side -- FIFA Club World Cup winners or not -- was ready to take on Arsenal, Liverpool and Manchester City this season?
If Chelsea beat Arsenal at Stamford Bridge on Sunday, their title credentials will no longer be up for debate.
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Despite Arsenal's dominant season so far, with Mikel Arteta's side topping the tables in both the Premier League and the league phase of the Champions League, the Gunners' six-point domestic lead could be halved this weekend if they lose to Chelsea. Third-place City are also likely to make up ground if they defeat struggling Leeds United at the Etihad on Saturday.
City will remain a threat, even though their own inconsistencies this season threaten to derail Pep Guardiola's team. While Erling Haaland remains fit and in prolific goal-scoring form, City are capable of challenging for a fifth title in six seasons. Arteta and his players know from bitter experience that Guardiola's men have form for late-season surges.
Chelsea are more of an unknown quantity under Maresca, although they proved when they defeated UEFA Champions League winners Paris Saint-Germain in the Club World Cup final that they are capable of upsetting the odds and beating the best. They are unpredictable and inconsistent, packed with supremely talented but inexperienced young stars such as Estêvão and Alejandro Garnacho, and they are on a roll, which makes them a dangerous proposition for Arsenal on Sunday.
Arsenal are formidable and strong, a team whose lack of flair and spontaneity is more than compensated by their ability to capitalise on set-pieces with goals from free kicks and corners. But they don't possess the freedom and X-factor that has propelled Chelsea into the title race. The Blues are everything that Arsenal are not -- positive and negative -- so Sunday is a clash of styles and philosophies and the outcome will tell us just where the title is headed.
After losing 2-1 at home to Sunderland on Oct. 25, Chelsea dropped to eighth in the Premier League. It was their third defeat in nine league games, and the shortcomings that have affected Chelsea ever since that 2022 takeover -- too many changes, too much youth, not enough experience -- all contributed to their inconsistent start to the season.
But that Sunderland defeat now looks like a blip in a more impressive run of just one loss in 11 games in all competitions -- a sequence of games played without the injured Cole Palmer -- in which Chelsea scored 27 goals and registered six clean sheets. It is a run that also includes wins against Liverpool and Barcelona.
The early concerns this season over Chelsea's defence and goalkeeper have dissipated, the midfield axis of Moisés Caicedo and Enzo Fernández is now consistently performing as one of the best in Europe -- while Pedro Neto has also been a key performer in midfield -- and 18-year-old sensation Estêvão is suggesting he could become another teen star on the world stage. Aside from the lack of title-winning experience in a side whose oldest players are goalkeeper Robert Sánchez and defender Tosin Adarabioyo (both 28), the reasons to back against Chelsea sustaining a title challenge are melting away.
One obvious area in need of improvement is the number of goals Chelsea get from Maresca's strikers, with centre-forward João Pedro tied with Fernández and Neto on four goals as the team's top scorer in the league. It is rare for any side to win a title without a forward scoring 20 league goals in a season, and nobody at Chelsea is coming close to hitting that target at this stage.
But the flip-side is that goals are being scored from all departments, and Chelsea's total of 23 Premier League goals so far this season is bettered only by Arsenal and City (both 24). And defensively, only Arsenal (six goals conceded) and City (10) have better defensive records than Chelsea (11) to date, so Maresca's side quite clearly go into the Arsenal game as a genuine title rival for Arteta's team.
Sunday is about more than the end result, though. The outcome will define the mentality of both sides for the remainder of the title race. If Arsenal win, they will move nine points clear of Chelsea and hammer out a real statement of intent. But a Chelsea victory would blow the title race wide open and infuse Maresca's young side with the belief and confidence that they can go all the way, at the same time as injecting doubt and fear into the Arsenal ranks.
While Arsenal will always view neighbours Tottenham Hotspur as their traditional local rival, Chelsea have become the London team that has outdone them at every turn and displayed the ruthless winning mentality that has eluded the Gunners in recent years. Since Arsenal's last title success in 2003-04, Chelsea have won five Premier League titles and two Champions Leagues. They have mastered the art of holding their nerve and winning.
If Chelsea win again on Sunday, they will be the real deal and it will be Arsenal's turn to hold their nerve.