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Scotland's 2026 World Cup draw: What's the easiest (and toughest) group they can get?

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Burley's message to the World Cup bound Scotland squad (1:30)

Craig Burley gives some advice to Scotland's squad, as the last player to score for Scotland at a World Cup in 1998. (1:30)

For the first time in a generation, Scotland fans can tune into a World Cup draw and know that they'll be taking part come the summer.

Steve Clarke's side made history by becoming the first Scotland side to reach the finals since 1998 with their worldie goal-filled win over Denmark earlier this month. On Friday, Dec. 5, they will find out who they will face in the group stages.

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The draw is to be held at the Kennedy Center in Washington, D.C., with 48 teams divided into 12 groups of four.

It is one of the most important dates in the calendar for Scotland, when they will also find out when and where they will play the World Cup, which could be anywhere from Vancouver to Guadalajara as the tournament is hosted by the United States, Canada and Mexico.

But who can Scotland draw ... and what are the best and worst-case scenarios on paper?


How does the draw work?

The 48 teams or placeholders will be divided into four pots of 12 teams, using the FIFA World Rankings list published Nov. 19. Each World Cup group will consist of one team from each pot.

The hosts -- United States, Canada and Mexico -- will be placed in Pot 1, as always, and have already been assigned to specific groups. The top nine countries will join the three hosts in Pot 1, with the next 12 in Pot 2, and so on.

That seems straightforward, but there are some rules:

  • Teams in the same pot cannot face each other in the group stage.

  • Teams in the same confederation cannot be drawn in the same group, barring those in UEFA who can be drawn where a maximum of two European sides can be drawn per group.

Below are the pot assignments.


What's the best draw Scotland can get?

As they are in Pot 3, Scotland will more than likely come up against one of the top-ranked teams in the world in the group stage. However, there is a chance they dodge them, with hosts the United States (ranked No. 14), Mexico (No. 15) and Canada (No. 27) also in Pot 1.

However, given the rule meaning no more than two European nations can play in the same group, there is an arguement to suggest that Scotland should actually welcome the prospect of a top UEFA team from Pot 1, meaning they would be more likely to get an even more favourable opponent in Pots 2 and 4.

For example, getting one of the lower-ranked European teams such as Belgium (No. 9) or Germany (No. 10) would mean that they would definitely avoid potential matchups with Italy or Turkey in Pot 4 (should either side make it to the World Cup through the playoff phase) and increase the liklihood they get one of Jordan (No. 66), Cape Verde (No. 68) Ghana (No. 72), Curaçao (No. 82), Haiti (No. 84) or New Zealand (No. 86).

Below are some example of (in theory) easier draws that it is possible for Scotland to get.


What's the worst possible draw for Scotland?

One nightmare scenario for Scotland would be to be drawn alongisde Brazil or Argentina from Pot 1, with the possibility they could still face a top-ranked European side (such as Croatia in Pot 2, or a team like Italy from the Pot 4 playoff winners.)

Another would be to draw Morocco in Pot 2 -- the best-ranked African side at the World Cup, who made it to the semifinals in Qatar -- again leaving opening the possibility of another high-ranked side.

It is Pot 4 where the toughest draws for Scotland lie. Remember, Scotland may qualify for the knockout stages even if they come third -- the top two teams from each group will advance, as will eight of the 12 third-placed teams.

It means that Scotland, really, just need to not be the worst team in their group. That will be difficult, however, should they get one of the European playoff winners from Pot 4.


Can Scotland draw England?

The answer: Absolutely.

Scotland can face any of the teams in Pot 1 -- England included. It would add spice to Scotland's first World Cup berth in a generation.

It would be a familiar feeling for Scotland to face their oldest rivals at a major tournament, having previously faced off in the group stage of Euro 2020 -- it ended in a bore 0-0 draw.

Drawing England would actually limit how difficult Scotland's draw would be (again, on paper) as it would mean they dodge the potentially high-ranked European playoff winners in Pot 4.