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Africa World Cup permutations: Nigeria, Benin, South Africa and the Group C conundrum

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Dove reacts to Nigeria's 'remarkable' WAFCON triumph (1:49)

Ed Dove praises Esther Okoronkwo for inspiring Nigeria's 3-2 comeback victory over Morocco to win the Women's Africa Cup of Nations. (1:49)

We've reached the final gameweek of Africa's 2026 World Cup qualifying group-stage campaign, and while four group winners have already been decided heading into gameweek yen, there's still much at stake as we arrive at the conclusion of a gripping campaign.

Here's everything that's been decided, what's still up for grabs, and the various permutations to decide Africa's World Cup representatives, as well as the four sides set to compete in the continental playoffs for a chance to contest the intercontinental playoff.

Who's already qualified?

Heading into this international break, Morocco and Tunisia were the only two sides to have booked their places at next year's showpiece in the United States, Canada and Mexico, with both securing qualification during the September internationals.

This week, they've been joined by two other North African nations, as Egypt and Algeria also secured their spots in the competition.

Egypt cruised into the tournament with a routine 3-0 victory over Djibouti on Wednesday, with Mohamed Salah scoring twice and Ibrahim Adel also among the goals as the Pharaohs guaranteed top spot in Group A. It means a return to the tournament for the first time since 2018, when Salah also inspired them over the line, and the Liverpool superstar will be desperate for a more enjoyable tournament experience next year.

- Johnson: 2026 World Cup: Who has qualified, and how the rest can make it

After missing out on the last two tournaments, Algeria return for the first time since 2014, having seen off Somalia 3-0 to move to 22 points after nine matches, four ahead of Uganda.

"I can't celebrate this qualification too much," head coach Vladimir Petkovic told journalists after the match. "We have to see our feet on the ground; we've made great efforts but we still have to progress. The battle for places [in the team] for the Africa Cup of Nations and the World Cup will be [intense]. I'm waiting for [the players] to show me their qualities and that they make my choices difficult."

Morocco, who were the first team to qualify for the tournament last month, can now become the first African team in history to go through a World Cup qualifying campaign with a perfect 100% record if they defeat Congo-Brazzaville in Rabat on Tuesday.

Who's on the brink of qualification?

Cape Verde will write history in Group D on Monday if they can beat lowly Eswatini in Praia.

The islanders would have secured their qualification on Thursday had they completed their comeback against Libya where, despite being 3-1 down before the hour mark, they salvaged a 3-3 draw thanks to Willy Semedo's 82nd-minute equaliser. They even thought they'd found an injury-time winner, only for the referee to rule the 96th-minute strike out for offside. Replays appeared to show that his call was incorrect, but with no Video Assistant Referee in action in Tripoli, there was to be no reprieve.

Nonetheless, Cape Verde should become the second-smallest country ever to reach the World Cup when they return to action. But, as they are only two points clear at the top, a draw would not be enough if second-placed Cameroon defeat Angola in Yaounde, given the Indomitable Lions' superior goal difference.

In Group B, either Senegal or the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) will secure their place. Both secured victories in their penultimate fixture -- the Congolese with a 1-0 victory in Togo; Senegal with a 5-0 pummelling of South Sudan away -- to take qualification down to the last matchday. Senegal are in the driving seat, with 21 points, and given their superior goal difference, will all-but-secure qualification with a draw at home against Mauritania on Tuesday.

The DRC need to defeat Sudan at home to stand any chance of topping the group, and even then, can only overtake the Teranga Lions -- barring a seven-goal-difference swing -- if Senegal also lose. So expect Pape Thiaw's Senegal side to secure a third-consecutive qualification for the first time in their history next week.

Africa's champions Ivory Coast are one point ahead of Gabon in Group F heading into their final fixture, but will fancy their chances of seeing off Kenya at home to guarantee top spot. Any slip up by the Elephants should open the door to Gabon, thoroughly impressive throughout qualification as they have dropped only five points so far, in which case, the Panthers can overhaul Emerse Fae's side with a victory over Burundi at home.

If the Ivorians do secure the win, Gabon will have enough points to get into the African playoffs. With Denis Bouanga and Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang scoring 15 goals between them this campaign -- including four for Auba against The Gambia -- it's too soon to rule them out of the running.

Ghana are also closing in on the climax of their redemption arc in Group I, just under a year after failing to qualify for the Africa Cup of Nations. The Black Stars dispatched the Central African Republic 5-0 to move up to 22 points after nine games, maintaining a three-point lead over second-placed Madagascar with a far superior goal difference. Only a Ghana defeat against Comoros at home and a Madagascar victory away at Mali -- coupled with an eight-goal-difference swing -- could prevent them from reaching a fifth World Cup.

The Group C conundrum

In contrast to the other groups, Group C is still a three-way tussle for top spot, with all of Benin (17 points), South Africa (15) and Nigeria (14) in contention to take the automatic World Cup berth.

Had South Africa not been deducted three points for fielding an ineligible player (Teboho Mokoena) for a routine victory over Lesotho in March, Nigeria's Super Eagles would be out of the running, but they're still alive, despite a miserable qualifying campaign in which they've won just three of their nine matches.

Benin, chasing their debut qualification, are in pole position, but they also face (on paper at least) the most ominous match, as former Nigeria head coach Gernot Rohr takes the Stallions to play his former side.

If Benin win, they advance; while Nigeria need maximum points to even stand a chance topping the group. However, a 2-1 victory for the Super Eagles would leave both sides with identical records, meaning that FIFA would need to refer to their disciplinary records (accumulation of yellow and red cards) in order to determine which team finishes higher in the group.

Meanwhile, South Africa can overtake Benin for top spot if they beat Rwanda at home and Benin lose to Nigeria, while a South Africa win and Benin draw would also see Hugo Broos' side go through if they win by two goals or more.

Nigeria need to win 1-0, or by a two-goal margin, and hope that South Africa do not win to progress; it would represent an astonishing revival act if Eric Chelle's side can squeeze into top spot.

"We are still alive, maybe the journalists can do the mathematics for us," Chelle told media after Nigeria's 2-1 victory over Lesotho on Friday. "We feel the pressure since March. Every time my players come to camp, they feel the pressure because it's important for Nigeria to be at the World Cup. We have a lot of pressure. This is not an explanation about our position, it is just the reality"

The "lucky losers" and the World Cup qualification lifeline

This week's final round of group-stage fixtures doesn't represent the end of the qualification campaign, with the top four of the nine group runners-up set to progress to the Second Round.

It means that the likes of Cameroon, Gabon, the Democratic Republic of Congo -- and perhaps even Nigeria -- will remain alive in the hunt for qualification.

CAF confirmed this week that in order to equilibrate the nine groups following the withdrawal of Eritrea from Group E -- which left fewer points up for grabs for the teams in this group -- points accrued against teams who finish bottom in each group will not be taken into account in the ranking of second-placed teams.