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Why each of the ASEAN U-23 Championship's final four will -- and won't -- become champions

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The must-watch goals from MD3 of the ASEAN U-23 Championship (1:07)

With the semifinals beckoning, relive the best goals from the final round of group-stage action at the ASEAN U-23 Championship. (1:07)

The ASEAN U-23 Championship -- officially known as the ASEAN U-23 Mandiri Cup 2025 -- is down to its final four.

As the group stage concluded on Tuesday, it is hosts Indonesia, two-time defending champions Vietnam, perennial contenders Thailand and dark horses Philippines who remain in contention to be crowned champions.

The semifinals, which take place on Friday, will see Indonesia renew acquaintances with Thailand -- with both sides having contested a feisty gold medal match at the 2023 Southeast Asian Games -- while Vietnam will have to see off a high-flying Philippines in order to stay in the hunt for a third consecutive title.

Over the course of the past week or so, all four have shown why they have what it takes to go all the way.

Nonetheless, come the business end of the tournament, it could be mentality -- in addition to ability -- that proves decisive.

So which team looks best placed to win the title?

We assess the strengths and weaknesses of the quartet of hopefuls.

- Catch all the ASEAN U-23 Championship action live on the ASEAN United FC YouTube channel here!

INDONESIA

In addition to the undeniable advantage of home support, Indonesia -- quite simply -- look the most-experienced and talented outfit at the tournament.

They are reaping the dividends of the bold decision to field a weakened and inexperienced senior team at last year's ASEAN Championship.

While that tournament ultimately ended with a disappointing group-stage elimination, a total of 12 players gained valuable experience that is now standing them in good stead at the U-23 Championship.

Indonesia's depth has meant that someone like captain Muhammad Ferarri has only needed to start one game, while a highly-rated talent such as Victor Dethan has had to bide his time.

The hosts have also unleashed a new weapon in the form of imposing striker Jens Raven, who marked his first appearance at this level with a stunning six-goal haul against Brunei Darussalam.

Still only 19, the 1.89-metre Dutch-born striker will pose a handful for any defence but did find the going tougher in his second start against Malaysia.

Perhaps the main question mark over Indonesia is that they have failed to show a real killer instinct thus far, even in the 8-0 thrashing of minnows Brunei when they only scored once after halftime when a massive victory was on the cards following their seven-goal first half.

The 1-0 win over Philippines that followed only came courtesy of an own-goal and, although the 0-0 draw against Malaysia was exactly what they had needed to progress, they dominated proceedings and really should have won that contest comfortably.

Of course, in Indonesia's defence, it is more important to hit top gear now rather than in the group stage so it will be interesting to see if they take their game to another level now that they are just two wins away from the trophy.

PHILIPPINES

The surprise feature of the semis, Philippines have been a breath of fresh air thus far in the tournament and perhaps it should have been expected -- given their senior side also caused a real stir at last year's ASEAN Championship by returning to the last four after a four-year absence.

Philippines raced out of the blocks with a group stage-defining 2-0 upset of Malaysia, where 18-year-old upstart Otu Banatao came from nowhere to emerge as their two-goal game changer.

They were then unlucky to lose to Indonesia only by an own-goal but then got the job done as expected against Brunei, although they perhaps should have won by more than the 2-0 scoreline on Monday.

Arguably as important to their charge as Banatao has been Javier Mariona, who started the campaign on the wing but has since evolved into a real dynamo in the engine room, offering both plenty in industry and creativity, while captain Gavin Muens has been a steadying presence shielding the backline.

Still, their standout player has perhaps been Japan-based goalkeeper Nicholas Guimarães, who has been one of their best performers in every game -- suggesting that perhaps Philippines can be opened up at the back.

It will now be interesting to see how Philippines fare against a team like Vietnam.

The simple fact that Philippines' domestic league is still not at the same level as their counterparts suggests that their players might not be as battle-hardened from exposure to a higher standard of competition on a regular basis.

Given a large majority of the team play together for Philippine YNT, the de-facto national youth team competing in the Philippines Football League, they do benefit from some form of continuity and familiarity but do not get the benefit of learning from more-experienced or foreign teammates.

Nonetheless, Philippines have made a habit of punching above their weight over the past decade -- and should have no issue being up for the fight on Friday.

VIETNAM

As champions of the past two edition of the U-23 Championship, and with the senior side reclaiming the ASEAN Championship back in January, it is hard to look past Vietnam as the current powerhouses of Southeast Asian football.

Granted, Indonesia will make their case given they are the only team in the region that reached the third round of the Asian qualifiers and still in the running to appear at next year's FIFA World Cup having since advanced to the next stage.

But if Indonesia's foreign-born heritage imports are taken out of the equation, perhaps no one has brought through talent quite like Vietnam in recent times.

Their squad at the U-23 Championship boasts two members of the ASEAN Championship-winning senior side in playmaker Khuất Văn Khang and goalkeeper Trần Trung Kiên.

Exciting forward Nguyễn Đình Bắc and midfielders Nguyễn Văn Trường and Nguyễn Thái Sơn all featured on the continental stage at last year's AFC Asian Cup, while striker Nguyễn Quốc Việt is even in the running to win a third ASEAN U-23 title after being part of the victorious 2022 and 2023 squads.

Vietnam not only produce outstanding raw talent but they also make it a point to regularly integrate them into older age-group teams, ensuring exposure and continuity that has resulted in them regularly being able to call upon seasoned campaigners at every level.

The main issue for Vietnam has been a real lack of a star player whereas, over the years, they usually had someone like Nguyễn Công Phượng or Nguyễn Quang Hải to turn to in tight situations.

Of the five goals they scored in the group stage, three came from centre-backs Nguyễn Hiểu Minh and Phạm Lý Đức via set-piece situations, suggesting that more can still be expected from Vietnam in the attacking third.

THAILAND

As the SEA Games' record 16-time men's football gold medalists, including seven after the tournament became an age-group competition in 2001, Thailand's continuous success at this level mirrors their status as one of the region's powerhouses.

That fact that they have not done so since 2017, nor won the ASEAN U-23 Championship in three editions since it was reintroduced in 2019, hints that others like Vietnam and Indonesia have caught up.

Even more so considering that, in that time, the Thais have lost two ASEAN U-23 and SEA Games finals apiece.

Yet, the Thailand production line will never stop churning out outstanding new prospects.

Their current U-23 crop might not be as stellar as the golden generation from the mid-2010s, which saw the likes of Chanathip Songkrasin, Thitiphan Puangchan and Sarach Yooyen all come through together to become established stars, but there are still gems waiting to be polished.

Seksan Ratree, as one of the hottest prospects on the books of Thai League 1 giants Buriram United, and Yotsakorn Burapha, who starred in Thailand's run to the last SEA Games gold medal match, were the standouts ahead of this tournament.

Two matches later, other such as Songkhramsamut Namphueng, Thanawut Phochai and Pichitchai Sienkrathok also look to be key players for the future.

Perhaps in the opposite situation Vietnam find themselves in, Thailand look to have genuine game changers but lack enough steady contributors all across the park.

While other contenders like Indonesia and Vietnam have a wealth of options to turn to in reserve, Thailand's bench does look slightly bare if they have to turn to alternative options when the starting XI is not getting the job done.

They will certainly have an excellent opportunity to prove that is far from the case when they face the big test that is coming up against Indonesia at Gelora Bung Karno, especially given there is revenge from the 2023 SEA Games that needs to be exacted.