The third phase of Asian qualifying for the 2026 FIFA World Cup is in the books and with their conclusion, traditional powers Japan, South Korea, Iran, and Australia have been joined by debutants Uzbekistan and Jordan in punching their tickets to North America.
But while those six can have afford to have their thoughts turn towards a year's worth of preparation for the global footballing showpiece, the third and fourth-placed finishers in the continent's three groups -- the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Iraq, Oman, Saudi Arabia, and Indonesia -- will all now turn their sights on a fourth-phase of qualification later this year, where a further two more nations can guarantee a spot at the World Cup.
How strong is this group of nations already tapped to represent football's largest confederation? Whose star has burned the brightest across the past six months and whose hasn't? And with 12 months to go until the tournament gets underway in Mexico, what is shaping up as the biggest Asian storyline of 2026? ESPN writers Gabriel Tan and Joey Lynch investigate.
Is this the strongest set of AFC nations to ever qualify for a World Cup?
Lynch: The cheeky answer to this is yes, because the expansion of the World Cup to 48 teams means that Asia will send at least eight teams to North America and that means it will be the strongest-ever contingent on sheer numbers alone; eight is greater than four. And with Uzbekistan seeking to build upon its long record of success at the junior international level in its first-ever World Cup, and Jordan looking to back up an Asian Cup final appearance with a bow on the global stage, some fresh faces from the region have a chance to surprise come 2026.
In reality, however, the answer to this question will likely come down to how much you rate Japan and, more specifically, how much you rate their chances of being able to stage a genuine push towards becoming the first nation from outside the European and South American duopoly to claim a World Cup. Hajime Moriyasu's side were mostly imperious throughout qualification -- their only loss, to Australia, coming with a heavily rotated squad -- and they possess a strong core of players in or around their prime with more than a year to build depth. With South Korea looking shaky at times, Iran's squad aging rapidly, and Australia needing to demonstrate a hammer to go with their anvil, the Samurai Blue will likely prove Asia's standard bearers once more.
Tan: Agreed. It's a bit of an unknown quantity given the expansion of the World Cup. Nonetheless, it's hard to ignore the fact that the quality of Asian football is at an all-time high if simply based on the number of representatives in Europe's leading competitions. Son Heung-Min, Kaoru Mitoma, Mehdi Taremi and Lee Kang-In are the obvious standouts, but when someone like Uzbekistan's Abdukodir Khusanov earns a move to Manchester City, it should make people sit up and take notice.
Personally, I had high hopes for Asia's contingent at the last World Cup. In particular, and against the majority, I expected Iran to reach the knockout rounds and they certainly showed they were capable of doing so when they beat a Gareth Bale-led Wales 2-0. Ultimately, when it mattered most, they were eliminated following a loss to United States.
On paper, Asia's representatives have what it takes make an impact. Whether or not they show the required mentality to take it to any perceived more-illustrious opponents could determine their fate.
Which player has been the most impressive during the third stage of qualifying?
Lynch: It's difficult to go past Taremi. With his goal in Iran's 3-0 win over North Korea on Tuesday evening -- meaning Team Melli joined Japan as the only nations in Asia to win seven of their 10 games in this phase -- the Internazionale veteran brought up his ninth goal involvement of this qualification. Jackson Irvine proved instrumental in helping Australia recover from a horror opening window and get their qualification back on track, but suffered a foot injury that ruled him out of the Socceroos' final two games -- wins over Japan and Saudi Arabia in which they secured their progression.
Tan: He hasn't exactly been a "standout," but considering Japan are widely regarded as Asia's best hope at the World Cup, Ayase Ueda continues to go from strength-to-strength in his role as the lone striker in the Samurai Blue's 3-4-2-1 system. Ueda does more than just get the goals but, given he continues to perform admirably in the Eredivisie with Feyenoord, the 26-year-old genuinely could become superstar of the world game come the end of 2026.
While the likes of Mitoma, Daichi Kamada and Ritsu Doan are no strangers to finding the back of the net, Ueda could just determine Japan's fortunes at the 2026 World Cup -- especially after a qualifying campaign which saw him bag eight goals but hint at so much more.
Which nation has been the most disappointing?
Lynch: All eyes were inevitably going to be on Saudi Arabia coming into World Cup qualification, given that they were being led by Roberto Mancini in the dugout and this was to be their first campaign staged since the avalanche of investment into the Saudi Pro League. But after a disappointing campaign, one which saw Mancini depart after draws with Bahrain and Indonesia, and the return of Hervé Renard as gaffer, the Saudis will now be forced to qualify for 2026 via the next phase of qualification.
Perhaps most concerning for the Green Falcons heading into this challenge are the persistent struggles they've experienced in front of goal; their seven goals in 10 games was the second-worst attack across the continent. Odds are they'll progress handily from the fourth phase but, with the biggest four clubs in the Saudi Pro League all spending big on foreign attackers in recent years, a potential flow-on effect of this investment could potentially be felt by the national team.
Tan: Saudi Arabia have certainly been disappointing. But given Qatar's status as back-to-back Asian champions, the fact that they will require to go through the fourth round of the Asian qualifiers is peculiar -- especially given the increased number of guaranteed slots.
It is also worth noting that Qatar's most-recent squad boasts a truckload of experience. The fact that they haven't automatically qualified from the third round, while other such as Jordan and Uzbekistan have, is an indictment on their performances.
Crystal ball time. What will be the major AFC-related storyline come the end of the 2026 World Cup?
Lynch: The obvious answer here is Japan; either they've gone close to winning the tournament, or their hopes of doing so have suffered a reality brick to the face. Another key storyline to keep an eye on, however, is the potential last dance that this tournament could prove for South Korea legend Son on the World Cup stage, as well as the jostling for position as the battle to be seen as Asia's best and most recognisable player heats up.
Tan: How will the debutants fare. As Joey mentioned, Uzbekistan are finally reaping the rewards from some consistently strong performances at youth level, while Jordan have built from the underdog story that was their charge to the 2023 AFC Asian Cup final.
Everyone saw how Qatar, as hosts, struggled at the last World Cup. The last thing Asian football needs is for a couple of debutants to look severely off the pace and, yet, anyone who has been following Jordan and Uzbekistan would know they do have sufficient quality in their ranks to cause an upset. How big an upset can they muster at the World Cup? That will be the question.