The 24th edition of the UEFA Women's Champions League -- the last to feature the old group stage before it becomes a single 18-team table next season -- awaits its final showdown in Lisbon on Saturday. Barcelona are in the showpiece event for a third-straight season, looking to do a three-peat, and face Arsenal, who are still the only English side to lift the trophy back in 2006-07.
The previous four meetings in the Champions League are split evenly (two wins for Arsenal in 2012; two wins for Barcelona in 2021). In fact, both teams have scored the exact same number of goals (8) across these matchups.
Given their recent history of success, Barcelona will be huge favorites. How on earth can Arsenal stop them?
Deny Barcelona space in behind
Arsenal have had a season of two halves. After the resignation of Jonas Eidevall in October, his replacement, Renee Slegers, picked up 43 out of 54 possible points in the Women's Super League (WSL), with 3.2 goals per game (the best rate in competition history), to finish second in the table -- 12 points adrift of Sonia Bompastor's unbeaten Chelsea.
Mariona Caldentey, who signed from Barcelona over the summer, has been at the heart of things for the Gunners in attack, winning the WSL's Player of the Season award after she finished with 14 goal contributions (nine goals and five assists). But Slegers' side have been error-prone at the back, with only Brighton (18) and Tottenham Hotspur (14) making more errors leading to shots than them (13).
Arsenal have also struggled to cover the space behind their defense while playing a high defensive line. This has been left exposed in their recent encounters against teams with able runners (e.g., Manchester United, Aston Villa and West Ham United), often turning games into an end-to-end basketball contest. It is notable that they conceded 14 goals before their last three games of the season, and 12 in those three.
Barcelona certainly have the attacking players to take advantage. They have been the best team in Europe for the past few years and this season, they've scored 171 goals in 40 games across Liga F and the Champions League, an astonishing rate of 4.27 goals per game.
Poland striker Ewa Pajor, who joined the club in the summer of 2024, has scored a club-record 43 goals in all competitions this season, including five hat tricks, and has added a different dimension to Barcelona's style of play.
At the defensive end, Pere Romeu's side have conceded just 23 goals in this period, with 10 of those coming in the final 20 minutes when they already have an unassailable lead. They are a tough nut to crack, having lost only three times in all competitions this year: Twice in the league (2-1 to Levante; 3-1 to Real Madrid) and once in the Champions League (2-0 to Manchester City). That's the same number of losses as their past two seasons combined.
There are learnings from each of those defeats that can serve as the blueprint for Arsenal in Lisbon.
Press them in possession
Taking a leaf out of the playbooks of Real Madrid and Manchester City, the one common thing that emerges is pressing. Both teams adopted a front-foot aggressive style when Barcelona tried to build out from the back, although they executed it in different ways.
Alberto Toril's Madrid forced Barcelona into a corner, preferably on the right side, creating a sense of urgency in their passing that helped generate turnovers and force them to play low-percentage long balls. Indeed, 11% of Barcelona's total passes were long balls, which is the highest share in any game this season.
Meanwhile, Gareth Taylor's City looked to break up Barca's rhythm with tactical fouls that caused stoppages in play. They committed 11 fouls in their 2-0 win, which resulted in the lowest pass tally (539), second-lowest passing accuracy (83.4%), lowest passes into final third and penalty area (18 and 6) by Romeu's side this season. City also made 52 ball recoveries in that game, most of them high up the pitch.
The idea was the same: to blast heavy metal music against Barcelona's peaceful symphony in the buildup. And it worked.
Barcelona's intricate style puts a lot of pressure on their full-backs to provide width (as shown in the average position chart above). This season, left-back (Esmee Brugts or Fridolina Rolfö) has often played in an almost forward role, positioned high and wide up the pitch. As a result, Romeu's asymmetrical 4-3-3 setup presents opportunities for opponents to create numerical overloads and apply pressure. Indeed, both Madrid and City targeted this by forcing play to wide areas and hunting in numbers.
No side have managed to register more touches in Barcelona's box than Real Madrid (24) and Man City (21) this season, while these two games are the only time where an opponent managed to accrue a comparable or higher expected goals (xG) tally. City are also the only side that managed to stop the Blaugrana from scoring so far this season.
Take a look at the numbers behind Barcelona's 4-1 win over Chelsea in their Women's Champions League semifinal first leg.
Set up for success
Another common element in the wins for Manchester City and Real Madrid was the profile of their attacking players and how it created a functional offensive unit on the day.
- A power forward (Khadija Shaw; Caroline Moller) to serve as an outlet and focal point.
- An attacking midfielder playing in the space behind the striker (Vivianne Miedema; Alba Redondo) to help in pressing and support attacks.
- A pair of wingers who are strong dribblers and track back (Mary Fowler and Lauren Hemp; Naomie Feller and Athenea del Castillo) to help defensively, make out-to-in runs from wide channels, to take-on and isolate defenders in transition.
The synergy between these moving parts is what made both teams successful on the day.
Slegers deploys a 4-2-3-1 setup, similar to Real Madrid, and has the players to replicate this on the pitch. Alessia Russo (power forward), Frida Maanum or Stina Blackstenius (attacking midfielder), Chloe Kelly and Caitlin Foord (the wingers). The key lies in execution.
Of course, if you put out a four-pronged attack that increases the load on the double pivot midfield to cover the pitch laterally, while being safe and progressive in buildup phases.
If Arsenal choose this approach, their central players will have to put in a double shift by neutralizing Barcelona's runs from midfield and disrupting attacks through the middle. That's a challenging task to fulfill for 90 minutes, even for seasoned veterans like Caldentey and Kim Little. And it's made harder by the fact Barcelona have Ballon d'Or winner Aitana Bonmatí pulling the strings from that area.
Or defend deep like Levante?
The other Barcelona loss this season, 2-1 against Levante, is an entirely different story. Les Granotes managed to score first (with the other two goals coming in stoppage time), but had 21% possession and allowed 47 shots on goal: they were putting out fires all game long and defending deep with eight players at times. They made 57 clearances and 31 total blocks (passes + shots) -- the most by any side in a game against Barcelona -- however, this approach is not sustainable for the majority of the time.
If you sit back, Barcelona will strangle you with possession. They don't attack in waves; it's just a constant barrage of dangerous balls in behind and into the box, so counterattacks are key to ensuring you are not pegged back too much. And Levante ultimately had fortune on their side to triumph.
A monumental task
Trying to compete blow-for-blow with the European champions is a fool's game given the world-class talent all over their squad. Arsenal will need to leave "everything on the pitch" -- in the words of USWNT right-back Emily Fox -- but failure to deal with Barcelona's runs in behind, while offering enough threat on the counter, could be fatal and the margin for error is small.
The Gunners can learn from those before them, but their main task Saturday will be to maximize those tiny gains and put in 100% effort to stop the Catalan machine from purring. It's a monumental task, but history awaits if they can pull it off.
- Disney+ will be the home of the UEFA Women's Champions League across Europe from next season and the only place fans can watch all live matches in the competition. Visit the Disney+ website to get access.