JEDDAH, Saudi Arabia -- History is guaranteed in Saturday's AFC Champions League Elite (ACLE) final. At the end of their meeting at the King Abdullah Sports City, either Al Ahli or Kawasaki Frontale will have secured a first Asian crown, becoming the 25th club to secure the continent's biggest club football prize and providing a new champion for the first time since Kashima Antlers in 2018. History will be written by the victors.
Until Wednesday evening, Al Ahli had been operating somewhat out of the spotlight in this year's competition. Or at least as far out of the spotlight as possible for a club that is one of the four founding members of the Saudi Pro League (SPL), is part of the league's quartet owned by Saudi sovereign wealth fund the PIF, is led by wunderkind coach Matthias Jaissle, and features the likes of Roberto Firmino, Riyad Mahrez, Franck Kessié, Édouard Mendy and Ivan Toney on its books. We're talking in relative terms here.
In their own city of Jeddah, Laurent Blanc's Al Ittihad cast a giant shadow: N'Golo Kanté and Karim Benzema lead a side that is six points clear in the SPL with a month of the campaign remaining, and with back-to-back Asian crowns from 2004 and 2005 in their trophy cabinet. Across the country in Riyadh, the giant that is Al Hilal stands alone as the most decorated club in Saudi Arabia, and the most successful club in ACLE history, while the presence of Cristiano Ronaldo at Al Nassr ensures a constant focus is pulled into that orbit.
Al Ahli have won nine Saudi titles, but only one, 2015-16, came in the 21st century. As recently as 2022 they were relegated from the SPL for the first time, winning their way back in the following year and being tapped as one of the quartet that were to effectively become state-owned superclubs. On the continental front, they are one of only four clubs -- Yokohama F. Marinos, FC Seoul, and Persepolis the others -- who have played in multiple finals without success; losing to Daewoo Royals (now Busan IPark) in 1986, and Ulsan Hyundai (now Ulsan HD) in 2012.
But now, Al Ahli stands alone as Saudi Arabia's representative on Asia's biggest stage. After a fifth-place finish in last year's SPL, Al Ittihad didn't even qualify for this year's ACLE or the Asian Champions League 2, while Jaissle's unit comprehensively defeated Al Hilal 3-1 in the semifinals on Tuesday to reach the decider; the result that, according to reports, may have cost coach Jorge Jesus his job. Al Nassr, for their part, were supposed to complete an all-Saudi final the following evening, as well as take a step out of Al Hilal's shadow, only to be stunned and deservedly beaten 3-2 by Kawasaki.
Kawasaki boss coach Shigetoshi Hasebe wryly suggested that Al Hilal and Al Nassr fans may prefer to see his side win on Saturday, this means that, from a Saudi perspective, from a West Asian perspective, focus is largely on Al Ahli. A continental title awaits and, as Mahrez noted on Friday, the chance to play in these high-profile fixtures can't always be counted on. Jasissle, meanwhile, can secure vindication after fans staged a revolt against the club to support him when reports circulated he was set to be replaced by Massimiliano Allegri in January.
But with this spotlight come significant expectations. Jasissle said in his pre-game press conference that he didn't want to "make the different circumstances bigger than they are," but said circumstances have undeniably put his side in a commanding position to secure their first Asian title before a ball is even kicked on Saturday evening.
Coming in at an estimated €169.93 million, the value of the SPL side's squad dwarfs the €15.28 million valuation placed on the not-quite-motley squad of their J1 League opponents, who started just a single foreigner, Brazilian winger Marcinho, in their win over Al Nassr. Indeed, Mahrez's wages alone are reportedly around three times the size of Kawasaki's entire squad.
Al AHli are also better rested, having had an extra day to prepare after their semifinal win; nor have they been taken to extra time in the knockouts, as Kawasaki were against Al Saad in the quarterfinals. And whereas Azzurro Nero had to fly 16 hours to Jeddah to reach this week's ACLE Finals, Al Ahli are playing in their home stadium on Saturday, with the vast, vast majority of those in attendance expected to provide them with raucous, partisan support.
And even if one were to discount that, to pay greater heed to Jaissle's declaration that "there are two teams on the pitch [playing] with the same rules," Al Ahli's form is strong. Only Al Hilal have scored more than the 32 goals they have scored in this year's ACLE, and they stand alone as the only club yet to lose a game. Whereas Kawasaki were winless in their last five J1 League games before heading to Jeddah, their opponents won three straight SPL games before comfortably dispatching Thai champions Buriram United in the quarterfinals and proving undeniable as they put down Al Hilal.
And then there is the broader context of this year's final.
Saudi Arabia has spent billions on its Vision 2030, a project that has faced accusations of sportswashing by human rights groups, and sport -- football in particular -- has played a central role in these efforts. Beyond the massive funds infused into the four PIF-owned clubs, both the Supercoppa Italiana and Supercopa de España are staged in the Middle Eastern country, which has also ensured football in Asia will effectively centre upon it for the next decade; hosting possibly four more of the newly centralised ACLE Finals before they are staged elsewhere, as well as the 2027 men's Asian Cup, and the 2034 World Cup.
But in a football-obsessed country, success on the pitch is needed. And with all three of its representatives reaching this year's ACLE semifinals, the stage had been set for Saturday to prove a celebration of the SPL as two of its strongest battled it out, only for Kawasaki to crash the party. Now, for the second straight tournament following the influx of hundreds of millions into the league, the SPL risks going trophyless on the continental level. Add to this the possibility that the country's national team could miss out on automatic qualification for the 2026 FIFA World Cup in June -- they trail second-placed Australia in Group C heading into the final two fixtures of the third phase of qualifiers -- and things could start to get awkward quickly.
Should Al Ahli's stars deliver in the manner they're capable of producing, they play the way they have been across the past week, and their fans in the stands provide the kind of hostile wall of noise they're expected to, then meeting expectations shouldn't prove a worry. But Al Hilal and Al Nassr both brought greater expectations and star power than Al Ahli into their semifinals, and they both fell. Football is a funny old game, one that's played on grass, not paper, and as Hasebe observed on Friday, "players aren't playing with their wallet."
Joey Lynch is in Jeddah reporting on the AFC Champions League Elite Finals as a guest of the Asian Football Confederation.