Change is coming at Manchester City. The question is how much, and how soon?
Omar Berrada (to Manchester United) has gone, and Txiki Begiristain (stepping down) will do the same at the end of the season. Two of the key architects of an unprecedented era of success at the Etihad Stadium are out, while the futures of two more, Ferran Soriano and Pep Guardiola, are up in the air.
Together, the four of them -- Berrada as COO, Begiristain as director of football, Soriano as CEO and Guardiola as head coach -- have helped turn City into the predominant force in English football and one of the best club sides in Europe. What happens next is largely down to whether Guardiola decides to follow Begiristain and Berrada in the summer, or opts to extend his stay in Manchester for a little longer.
Guardiola has a contract until the end of the current campaign and has so far insisted he hasn't made up his mind about what to do next. "It's not true, I can promise you that had I made a decision on whether to stay or to leave [City], I would tell you," he said in October. "I don't even know. But anything can happen in life."
Against the backdrop of uncertainty around Guardiola, Man City have lost four games in a row for the first time since 2006. The Premier League champions in six of the past seven seasons are struggling; it's the first time Guardiola has lost four consecutive games as a coach.
Injuries have played a part -- particularly Rodri's season-ending knee surgery -- but there is also a growing feeling around City that this is suddenly a club and a team in transition. Where do things stand around Guardiola and City right now ahead of a critical run of games?
The uncertainty around Guardiola and his future
City bosses insist Guardiola is telling the truth about his future and that the 53-year-old former Barcelona boss is genuinely weighing up his options. At least for now, according to club sources, Begiristain, Soriano and chairman Khaldoon Al-Mubarak are still in the dark. They don't want to put pressure on Guardiola out of respect for what he has achieved since arriving from Bayern Munich in 2016, but there's also an acceptance that they will need time to plan ahead -- particularly if they have to pick a replacement.
Club sources have told ESPN that contingency plans are in place, with due diligence being carried out on a number of potential candidates including Xabi Alonso, who has been on Real Madrid and Liverpool's radar after a fantastic season with Bayer Leverkusen in 2023-24.
City, according to one source with familiarity of the situation, are expecting Guardiola to let them know his decision between the November international break and January. His past two contract extensions -- in 2020 and 2022 -- were signed in November, partly to ensure that any uncertainty didn't drag into the second half of the season. The topic has already started to creep into Guardiola's weekly news conferences, and the questions will keep coming as long as the silence lasts.
Overall, City want to avoid a situation post-January where Guardiola's future overshadows their push for trophies in the final months of the season. Sources close to the club insist Guardiola understands that better than anyone, and that he won't want his players to have any distractions while they challenge again for the Premier League and Champions League.
Despite the run of poor form, City are still second in the Premier League table, five points behind Liverpool, and 10th in the Champions League group phase table, two points away from the top eight and an automatic bye into the round of 16. Four straight losses in all competitions haven't prompted any panic, particularly with the next two league games against Tottenham (at home on Saturday) and Liverpool (at Anfield on Dec. 1) offering the opportunity to immediately get the season back on track.
"I will not delay any action knowing that I'm creating a problem for the club," Guardiola said in October. "If I feel I'm a problem for the club right now I will take a decision as quickly as possible. But I don't have that feeling. They understand the reasons I have."
For obvious reasons, City want Guardiola to stay. He has won 15 major trophies in eight seasons, including six Premier League titles and the Champions League. He won a domestic treble in 2019 and matched Manchester United's continental treble in 2023. This season, City are aiming to become the first English team to win five top-flight titles in a row. Beyond that, there's nothing left to achieve. Guardiola's City have already set records that might never be broken and in that respect, he might have to find a different motivation to stay on.
Sources inside the club have told ESPN that club chiefs were hopeful he would sign an extension in 2022 because he hadn't yet won the Champions League. That has since been ticked off, along with the Super Cup and FIFA Club World Cup.
Speaking after becoming world champions in Saudi Arabia nearly a year ago, Guardiola said the success had "closed a chapter" for him. Visibly tired and emotional, it sounded to those in the room like a resignation speech without the resignation. Those closest to him thought he appeared exhausted after clinching a record fourth successive title in May, and the prevailing feeling around the club was that he would only stay for one more season.
The same sources have told ESPN that, at that time, there was concern about whether Guardiola would be ready for a longer than usual preseason tour of the United States. But when Guardiola arrived with the team in New York in July, the same sources were pleasantly surprised at how energised he appeared. It prompted a feeling that maybe it wasn't a foregone conclusion that he would leave in the summer of 2025 and that -- potentially -- he could sign a new deal.
Shaka Hislop tells Sebastian Salazar that Rodri is more important to Manchester City than Erling Haaland.
Begiristain out, Viana in next summer
Losing close friend and ally Begiristain within the executive structure of City Football Group (CFG) is a big blow. Begiristain, who was instrumental in hiring Guardiola at the Etihad, initially signalled he wanted to leave in 2019 when he turned 55 but was convinced to stay on. Guardiola has known about the decision for a while but has admitted it will have an impact. "A part of me is leaving too," he said.
Guardiola even cited Begiristain's influence when he extended his contract in 2020.
"One of the reasons I extended my contract two times is because Txiki is here," he said. "We work together incredibly well. When we win, we try to analyse why. When we lose we try to analyse why. We don't judge the other one. We both work for the best for this club."
The practical impact of Begiristain's departure is being played down by City sources because the 2025 summer transfer window will already be planned out. Begiristain and Guardiola will work together to identify areas of the squad that need to be improved, alongside input from Begiristain's replacement, Hugo Viana.
Viana won't officially arrive from Sporting Lisbon until the summer, but he will work with Begiristain during a "transition period." Once he gets settled in the role, Viana's job is to keep fine-tuning a squad that's been among the best in Europe for nearly a decade.
He has the benefit of a core of young players under the age of 25 including Phil Foden, Josko Gvardiol, Jérémy Doku, Savinho, Rico Lewis and Oscar Bobb. However, there are several aging stars who need to be replaced. Kyle Walker, John Stones, Bernardo Silva, Mateo Kovacic and Ilkay Gündogan are all 30 or over. Ederson (31) nearly moved to Saudi Arabia in the summer, while Kevin De Bruyne (33) is out of contract at the end of the season.
There are also doubts about the long-term futures of Erling Haaland and Rodri, two key figures in their primes. Haaland is settled in Manchester and has a contract until 2027, but City staff are well aware of his ambition to one day play in Spain for either Real Madrid or Barcelona. Real Madrid have been linked with a move for Rodri, although some sources have speculated that the Spanish giants have done themselves no favours with the way they handled the City's midfielder's Ballon d'Or win.
Having learned that Rodri would beat their winger, Vinícius Júnior, to the top prize, Real Madrid boycotted the ceremony. It was noted by City sources that a year earlier, Haaland, who finished second in the voting, not only attended the event, but also publicly congratulated the winner, Lionel Messi.
What happens next?
Sources with awareness of the discussions have told ESPN that the two most important factors for Guardiola as he decides his future are the opinion of his family, and whether he believes the players are still responding to him after nine years together.
Signing a one-year extension would take him to 10 years at the Etihad, something the club would be keen to celebrate. It would also mean Guardiola could slip away quietly in the summer of 2026 -- one dominated by the World Cup in the U.S., Canada and Mexico -- instead of having to deal with the inconvenience of the expanded Club World Cup this summer.
Sources close to City have told ESPN that a potential handover between managers would be far easier in 2026 than in a 2025 summer shortened by the tournament in the United States. By then, City are also likely to know the final outcome of the Premier League's 115 charges.
The club is refusing to comment on what sanctions might come its way, but there's a sense among those around Guardiola that he might want to stay in the immediate aftermath of the verdict to help the club deal with any potential punishment. City feel indebted to Guardiola, but Guardiola also feels the same about the club for providing the environment to be so successful.
Whatever happens, Guardiola's reign is coming to an end. It could be as early as this summer. It could be 2026 or, at a push, 2027. City are hoping for at least one more year before he moves on, potentially into international football. What's certain is that change is coming. The only question: when?