JAKARTA, Indonesia -- Respite. That's what the Socceroos needed coming to Jakarta. Respite from the suddenly plummeting sentiment following their loss to Bahrain in their opening fixture of the third phase of Asian qualification for the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Respite from the deafening roar of the 70,000 Indonesian fans that packed into the Gelora Bung Karno stadium. And respite from the foreboding, and deepening sense of dread that hovered over what was to come in the months ahead.
In the end, Tuesday night's 0-0 draw with Indonesia offered no such absolution.
In a vacuum, things absolutely could have gone worse for the Socceroos across this past international window. They could have lost both games, rather than just one, for example. Or they could have found themselves played off the park by the Bahrainis and Indonesians. Thanks to Saudi Arabia's draw with Indonesia last week, Graham Arnold's side will only be one win off second spot in Group C -- one of two automatic qualification places on offer -- when they host China in Adelaide next month.
For Arnold and those in charge at Football Australia, this will likely be the focus. There will be an emphasis on how just 20% of this round of fixtures has been completed -- references to Japan losing their opening two games at this stage of the 2022 cycle only to then top the group are a good chance to pop up -- and that there's plenty of time to right the ship.
"There's eight games to go and second spot's on four at the moment," Arnold told Paramount. "So it's not like it's a disaster but I've got to go home and do a lot of thinking."
However, in the broader, realistic context of the international window just gone, it's difficult to envision a scenario in which the mood could have been driven any much lower. Against the two lowest-ranked sides in the Socceroos' group, as a nation that made the round of 16 at a World Cup and, per Arnold himself, has its sights set higher, six points from this window was not an unfair expectation. Instead, just one was gleaned and 180 minutes of football played without a single goal being scored. Yes, Asia is growing and there are increasing signs that the sleeping giant that is Indonesia is beginning to stir, credit where credit is due. But there doesn't have to be -- and there shouldn't be -- any kind of correlation between a rise in expectations for opposition performances and a stagnation or even diminishing of expectations of one's own.
Now, after two disappointing games, Australia is confronted with a scenario wherein its hopes of advancing to the World Cup in this phase of qualification could be dealt a mortal blow by the end of the November window, by which point they'll have faced every team in their group once, including Japan away and Saudi Arabia in Melbourne.
And while turning things around by then is within their capabilities, it will have to reverse a trend that has seen the side win just one of their past nine games in this third phase of Asian qualification stretching back to the 2022 cycle -- against Vietnam, inspired to a 4-0 win by a now-retired Tom Rogić. Defeats against the Samurai Blue (twice) and Green Falcons across this stretch weren't exactly shocking but they've now been joined by the defeat against Bahrain and draws against Oman, China, the Saudis at home, and Indonesia. Just twice have the Socceroos scored multiple goals during this run, the aforementioned Vietnam win and a 2-2 draw with Oman in Muscat.
Sandwiched, as this stretch of form has been, around an appearance in the knockout stages of the World Cup, it's been largely obfuscated but after the opening two games of the 2026 cycle's third stage, it would appear that the challenges of this level of Asian competition are no closer to being solved now than they were three years ago. Goals win games but they continue to be the one thing the Socceroos Arnold's side can't reliably find once they get past the likes of Nepal or Bangladesh. The coach mused that the media loved to go on about breaking down low blocks in the aftermath of the Bahrain defeat but the simple fact is that, until this starts happening somewhat frequently, whatever remains of the footballing fourth estate will keep banging on about it because it's having a material impact on this team's efforts to qualify for World Cups.
After bemoaning their inability to test Bahraini keeper Ebrahim Lutfalla last week, Arnold's side did send in 16 shots against Indonesia and forced Tim Garuda custodian Martin Paes into a number of sharp saves on Tuesday but, yet again, failed to find a way through. Despite an incredibly hostile environment and a pitch that, frankly, wasn't up to international standards, they looked better than they did against Bahrain amid these efforts it should be noted -- low a bar as that may be -- and Indonesia fashioned just 0.14 xG from their four shots on goal and touched the ball in their attacking penalty area just eight times. Such was the passion of the crowd, the noise that accompanied any kind of foray forward invariably gave the impression that it was an opportunity far greater than it actually was -- the back four and keeper Mathew Ryan were hardly troubled all night.
Yet, be it from Harry Souttar's repeated attempts in the 21st and 23rd minutes, Nestory Irankunda's effort off the post in the 34th, Craig Goodwin's drive into the box and shot in the 35th frame, Adam Taggart's shot straight at Paes in the 67th, or Awer Mabil's wide header in the 77th minute, several of those in green-and-gold will be returning to their clubs wondering what may have been. Indeed, in the wake of this dispiriting window the players will know they need to take a level of responsibility, too; they're better than what this past week has shown.
But football is a web of intersectionality, and it can't be overlooked that the Socceroos' overall approach on Tuesday wasn't creating gilt-edged chances to be put away, either. They finished the evening with an xG of 0.90 of their 16 attempts, good for an average per shot of 0.056, and while it may have looked like it was simply a matter of when, not if, across the first half, little was done to press that advantage in the second stanza beyond an ever-increasing reliance on crossing and set pieces. It was a maddeningly familiar reversion. In brutal conditions, the Socceroos' effort couldn't be questioned. But effort has never been the issue for this side.
It's likely that much of the promised thinking Arnold will do in the coming weeks will be on the sorely missed creative types that should be available come October; pondering how to best incorporate the likes of Riley McGree, Ajdin Hrustić, and Jordy Bos into the team, and probably Alex Robertson, too. Max Balard looms as a potential midfield option and Irankunda will have another month at Bayern Munich under his belt at that point, as well, hopefully raising his fitness levels and the number of minutes his dynamic presence can be relied upon against the Chinese and Japanese. Common sense dictates that this will improve the Socceroos' attacking output. Potentially significantly, given how they were crying out for creative types this window. But given how far back the Socceroos travails against this level of Asian competition stretch, relying on simply plugging new inputs into an existing framework to turn things around feels unwise.
Hence why the next few months are significant for more than just Arnold.
After the World Cup, Football Australia hurriedly moved to sign the coach to an extension and imbue him with even more power and oversight of the national setup. Arnold was a familiar presence, after all, had an established approach and, in the warm afterglow of a round of 16 appearance, it was one they were happy to tie themselves to and further integrate into the national setup.
It wasn't surprising either, really. The federation has largely sidestepped the uncomfortable questions and conversations surrounding coaching in recent years, basking in the glow of the Socceroos and Matildas' World Cup runs and the virtue of not being the APL as the A-Leagues' have lurched from crisis to crisis. The one time this veneer cracked came during qualifying of the 2022 cycle, when successive defeats against Japan and Saudi Arabia suddenly placed World Cup qualification -- and the associated gravy train -- under existential threat and spurred the federation into leaking against Arnold.
Now, the Socceroos find themselves confronting the same challenges that led to that nexus point in a new qualification campaign, albeit safety net of a 48-team World Cup will likely have Football Australia alarmed, rather than panicking. Perhaps the bigger question, though, is if they're surprised?