The Asian Cup is almost upon us and Socceroos coach Graham Arnold is set to name his squad for the tournament later this week. From a narrative perspective, maybe it's fitting the Australia are headed back to Qatar for the tournament.
It was at the Ahmed bin Ali Stadium in Doha that the Socceroos came within one Emiliano Martínez save of taking eventual world champions Argentina to extra time at the 2022 World Cup. It was at the Al Janoub Stadium where Mathew Leckie weaved one way and then the other before driving a shot beyond Kasper Schmeichel to send the nation into raptures and the Socceroos into the knockout stages.
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Qatar was where this team defied all sense of rhyme and reason to stand amongst the final 16 teams in the world, where a squad, raised on the exploits of the 2006 Golden Generation, surpassed their heroes. So, while the move away from a mid-2023 staging in China and relocation to the Gulf in early 2024 may have placed Arnold in an awkward position when it comes to matters of squad rejuvenation, there's a certain je ne sais quoi to his team heading back to the Gulf.
Of course, this nostalgic sense of accomplishment has also laid a foundation for the heightened sense of expectations. In making the last 16 at the World Cup, the Socceroos have now set a baseline wherein they should be staging a deep run at the continental equivalent.
If this team sees itself as being capable of taking that next step and demanding greater respect around the world, performing strongly in tournaments like these is how they make it happen. Arnold has spoken of the heightened sense of expectation and standards that the playing group have adopted for themselves across the past 12 months and Football Australia has engaged in a deliberate policy of scheduling high-quality opposition such as England, Argentina, and Mexico over the past few months. Now the rubber meets the road.
But who will be amongst the 23 players entrusted with accomplishing this mission? Form and minutes at clubland will play a large role in that -- it's become something of a mantra for Arnold in recent times -- but there are two major storylines at play beyond this obvious factor.
The first is injuries or, more specifically, injuries that don't necessarily rule players out of the entire tournament but will leave them hobbled or with very little time on the training track before its commencement - Leckie, Mathew Ryan, and Jamie Maclaren are among this contingent.
Carrying one of these players into a tournament doesn't have to be a bad thing but what about two? Or three? How many players not at 100% can Arnold risk? Being able to swap players out up to 24 hours before the side's first game if things go wrong will help in this regard but there's a clear risk-against-reward dynamic to confront.
Another complicating factor is that, while clubs are compelled to release players for the tournament, leagues will not pause during its staging -- meaning players will miss up to six weeks of action with their main employers. Ultimately, for senior players, this shouldn't be relevant. This is the second-biggest stage you can take for your nation, after all. But for under-23 players in Arnold's ranks, there's another complication: the AFC Under-23 Asian Championships in April, also in Qatar.
Under Tony Vidmar, the Olyroos will need to finish in the top three of that tournament to secure automatic qualification for the Paris Olympics -- something that Arnold says is of critical importance to players' development -- while the fourth-placed finisher will be forced into a playoff with Guinea for the final Olympic berth. Critically, clubs will not be compelled to release players for the event, meaning that Vidmar, Arnold, and Football Australia will need to negotiate and manage relationships to secure players.
Suppose a player is seen as being a key figure in April but would only be serving as a depth option at the senior Asian Cup? In that case, discretion may prove the better part of valour when it comes to their selection and their absence from their club could be banked for when they'll be needed. Alternatively, if a player won't be released by their club for an Olyroos squad, you might as well pick them for next month if they're on the fringes because, well, their clubs can't say no.
With all that in mind, let's dive in.
SOCCEROOS DEPTH CHART
Coach
First choice: Graham Arnold
Next in line: Tony Vidmar, Patrick Kisnorbo
Arnold doesn't look to be going anywhere anytime soon, telling ESPN last month it would take "something special" to lure him away from the Socceroos. The Socceroos' coach has cut a distinctly more relaxed, confident figure in his public-facing moments since the World Cup, looking like he's having fun and embracing a new level of contentment born from his legacy, by and large, being secured by his side's remarkable run to the knockout stages of the tournament.
The Asian Cup, though, represents another important legacy moment for Arnold. Likely not a defining one, but something that will bolster or perhaps take the shine off it. The 60-year-old has led Australia to Asia's premier competition twice now -- in 2007 and 2019 -- and on both occasions his sides have failed to progress past the quarterfinals. In Australia's other two appearances -- 2011 and 2015 -- they made the final. It somewhat sticks out on his resume as something he can address next month.
When it comes to succession planning, Kevin Muscat agreeing to take over at Chinese side Shanghai Port means that Olyroos boss Vidmar looms as the most likely local replacement should Arnold unexpectedly depart. Kisnorbo, back in Australia after being axed by French side Troyes, is another free-agent option. The former Melbourne City boss could, in fact, serve as a potential assistant for Arnold in a similar manner to Ufuk Talay's role between his exit from Wellington Phoenix and appointment at Sydney FC.
Graham Arnold tells Joey Lynch it would take "something special" to lure him away from the Socceroos coaching job.
Goalkeepers
First choice: Mathew Ryan
Next in line: Joe Gauci, Mitch Langerak, Ashley Maynard-Brewer, Lawrence Thomas, Nicholas Bilokapic, Tom Glover
The goalkeeping position is the first in which Arnold will be forced to juggle the risk against the reward of naming an injured player in his squad.
Ryan's club AZ Alkmaar announced last week that he had suffered a "fractured cheekbone and will be sidelined for several weeks." While "several" is hardly the most specific of timelines, that would ostensibly put him in doubt for the Socceroos' group stages at a minimum. Yet given that he serves as skipper, has been performing at a strong level in Europe, and is one of Arnold's most trusted contributors, it feels almost inevitable that the 31-year-old will be given every chance to don a protective face mask and contribute -- even if it's from the knockouts onwards.
After another good season in the J1 League, Langerak would ostensibly be an excellent safety blanket amidst all this uncertainty but, after the way he was treated before the World Cup, it's unclear if Langerak would either be called upon again or even be willing to accept the call. That means that Gauci, who has performed admirably behind a leaky Adelaide United defence in the A-League Men, should be headed to Qatar as either an emergency starter or a very capable backup.
Given his place in recent squads, Maynard-Brewer likely has the edge over Thomas and Glover in the race for the third goalkeeping position, with Bilokapic a potential candidate to miss out, not because of his form, but because Arnold may want to play nice with his club Peterborough United before he gets called up by Vidmar for the AFC U23 Championships.
Eyes on the road ahead 🔙🔜
— Maty Ryan (@MatyRyan) December 11, 2023
Thanks for the well wishes 🙏🏼 pic.twitter.com/7x8UCUyrY6
Left-backs
First choice: Jordan Bos
Next in line: Aziz Behich, Kye Rowles, Jacob Farrell, Jack Iredale
Starting week in and week out for KVC Westerlo in the Belgian top-flight, recently shifting to left-back and even grabbing a goal against Anderlecht, disaster would have to strike for Bos to miss out on being selected for and then starting at his first major tournament for the Socceroos. Behich, meanwhile, has been one of Melbourne City's better performers in a challenging season and combined with his history of contributions to the team, likely goes.
Farrell should be getting a call-up to the Socceroos at some point in the coming World Cup cycle, and was on the preliminary 50-player list that Arnold submitted to clubs earmarking who was in contention, but probably hasn't done quite enough to displace Behich just yet, especially given that he will also likely be getting called up by Vidmar come April and miss a chunk of club football.
Iredale, meanwhile, has been a mainstay for Bolton Wanderers this season and Arnold's assistant Rene Meulensteen was recently spotted watching he and Socceroo-eligible teammate Gethin Jones in action. He's a long shot but it's not beyond the realms of possibility.
Right-backs
First choice: Lewis Miller
Next in line: Nathaniel Atkinson, Callum Talbot, Thomas Deng, Miloš Degenek, Gethin Jones
Unavailable: Ryan Strain
With a groin injury suffered against Palestine in World Cup qualifying ruling Strain out, and Atkinson still working his way back from an ankle injury, the stars seem to be aligning for Miller, who himself returned from a minor injury to play 45 minutes in a 1-0 loss to Ryan McGowan's St. Johnstone over the weekend.
Atkinson, though, has featured twice for Hearts since returning from injury, playing 91 minutes for the Jambos as they took a smash-and-grab 2-0 win over Celtic over the weekend and is at the very least well-positioned should Arnold want to bring two specialist right-backs to Qatar. Meulensteen's trip to Manchester would seemingly indicate that Jones is in the frame for this role as well.
If Arnold instead wants a utility-like option, Deng and Degenek both have a history of filling the role. Still, the former has been out-of-season since Dec. 3 and the latter hasn't played since Oct. 8 after falling out of favour at Red Star Belgrade.
Centre-backs
First choice: Harry Souttar, Kye Rowles
Next in line: Alessandro Circati, Cameron Burgess, Alex Grant, Curtis Good, Thomas Deng, Miloš Degenek, Jay Rich-Baghuelou
Unavailable: Gianni Stensness, Harrison Delbridge
Souttar isn't carrying an injury into the Asian Cup but nonetheless represents another conundrum for Arnold. The towering centre-back performed strongly during the November World Cup qualifiers but still finds himself banished from Enzo Maresca's first team at Leicester City -- his last club football, his only league football of the season, coming in 85 minutes against Stoke on Oct. 7.
As a footballer, Souttar's the best option the Socceroos have in the middle of the defence -- which is why he's become a clear exception to Arnold's "you need to be playing with your club" rule -- and he's got a famous history of performing gargantuanly in Qatar off the back of very limited minutes with his club. But there's always going to be a risk in relying on players not getting regular football, let alone no football, in big moments.
Rowles, meanwhile, is a bit of the inverse of this. He's not at the same level as Souttar but he's played 99% of available minutes for Hearts this season and has improved as the campaign went on. Also working in his favour is that he allows Arnold to play the same left-foot, right-foot combination with Souttar that started at the World Cup in Qatar
When it comes to other options, Burgess and Circati are both playing regularly for teams atop the English and Italian second-tiers respectively and should be on the plane even if it's just as backups. Grant is another option having once again been a key contributor for Pohang, who recently advanced to the knockout stages of the Asian Champions League atop their group, but for whatever reason his play in the K-League has never attracted a call-up from Arnold. Good was on the 50-player shortlist submitted by Arnold and brings size, veteran experience and a left-foot.
Given the depth ahead of them, their status as utilities is why Degenek and Deng can't be ruled out completely but it's not likely at this point given their challenges with their clubs. Rich-Baghuelou fits the physical profile Arnold has looked for in defenders as of late and has been playing for Accrington Stanley but probably needs to get himself to a higher level.
Central midfielders
First choice: Jackson Irvine, Keanu Baccus
Next in line: Massimo Luongo, Alex Robertson, Ryan Teague, Calem Nieuwenhof, Aiden O'Neill, Cameron Devlin, Denis Genreau
For all the intrigue elsewhere, central midfield has been one of the more settled positions in the Socceroos squad, with Irvine and Baccus both well-established as Arnold's preferred duo in the middle of the park. Behind them, though, Luongo continues to help power Ipswich Town's march back to the Premier League and, all things being equal, should be giving Arnold significant headaches about breaking up his first-choice pairing because he needs to get the 31-year-old into his starting XI.
Robertson hasn't featured for the Socceroos since June's game against Argentina and is another one that will probably also be needed for the under-23s in April. But bugger that, because he's playing so well for Portsmouth as they run away with League One that he's almost demanding selection regardless of overarching circumstances. Teague is in a similar U23s boat but has been outstanding for Melbourne Victory this season; deserving of a mention here even if a senior call-up might have to wait until later in the year.
The likes of Nieuwenhof, O'Neill, Devlin, and Genreau are all in the mix as well, with Nieuwenhof and O'Neill's regular minutes at Hearts and Standard Liege putting them at the front of that line.
Samstagabend trug sich Jackson #Irvine im zweiten Ligaspiel in Folge in die Torschützenliste ein. 🗒⚽️#fcsp #osnfcsp | Präsentiert von @LichtBlick_de pic.twitter.com/XdZiaqVomP
— FC St. Pauli (@fcstpauli) December 12, 2023
Attacking midfielders
First choice: Connor Metcalfe
Next in line: Alex Robertson, Riley McGree, Ajdin Hrustić
Metcalfe has been one of the Socceroos' most impressive players across the past year and, at 24 years old and playing week-in-and-week-out in Germany, is just beginning to enter his prime. The Novocastrian has been deployed in both the midfield and on the wing for second-placed 2. Bundesliga side St Pauli across an unbeaten start to their campaign and, regardless of what role it is, is increasingly shaping as another one of these players that Arnold needs to get onto the park in some capacity.
Robertson has been deployed higher up the pitch for Pompey in recent weeks and with McGree still struggling with injury this versatility should further boost his case. Indeed, persistent troubles with his plantar fascia have sidelined McGree since early October and Middlesbrough coach Michael Carrick said last week that he was closing in on a return to training. Given that Arnold is already likely going to need to take a risk on a few players, this timeframe might prove too much for the 25-year-old to overcome.
Despite his massive amounts of natural talent, Hrustić won't be part of the Asian Cup. The 27-year-old desperately needs to secure a move away from Hellas Verona in January and into a club where he'll start playing again so he can get himself back on track to contribute on the road to and at the 2026 World Cup.
Wingers
First choice: Craig Goodwin, Mathew Leckie
Next in line: Martin Boyle, Connor Metcalfe, Samuel Silvera, Riley McGree, Daniel Arzani, Awer Mabil, Garang Kuol, Marco Tilio, Adrian Segecic
What to do about Leckie? Melbourne City announced last week that the 32-year-old had suffered a hamstring injury that would keep him sidelined for four to six weeks, a timeframe covering the Socceroos' opening game right through to the end of the group stages. The attacker will undoubtedly work like a machine to get fit again, to the extent that it's possible he could be back sooner, but if Arnold is inclined to devote one of his limited attacking spaces in the squad on this gamble if one of the defining questions of this squad.
Given his history in the national team, ability to change and win games either as a starter or off the bench, and that aforementioned work ethic, from the outside, it feels like the coach will give Leckie every chance of coming good.
On the other side, Goodwin is a much simpler proposition given that he's playing week in and week out for Al Wehda in Saudi Arabia, albeit he hasn't scored since late October. Boyle, likewise, is playing regularly for Hibernian and recently scored his seventh goal of the campaign in a win over Livingston. He's also been playing a more central role for Hibs boss Nick Montgomery in recent weeks, adding another string to his bow and giving Arnold more options.
Silvera scored for Middlesbrough over the weekend and has been a part of the last two squads but he's also being used exclusively off the bench by Carrick as of late -- 20 minutes the most he's logged in a single game since Halloween. He potentially could be tapped as the emergency option for Leckie should he not be able to recover in time, as could Arzani, whose strong start to life at Melbourne Victory will get him back into the national team at some point if he can maintain it. Silvera's the more likely of that duo to be named outright in the squad.
Mabil had been starting to put together some form for Swiss side Grasshoppers but was forced off after just 12 minutes in a win over Basel last week, potentially bursting his bubble on the edge of the squad announcement. Kuol, Tilio, and Segecic, meanwhile, are all under-23 options whose form with their clubs, or their club's form, is dragging them down.
Strikers
First choice: Mitchell Duke
Next in line: Bruno Fornaroli, Jamie Maclaren, Adam Taggart, Kusini Yengi, Apostolos Stamatelopoulos, Mohamed Toure, John Iredale
Unavailable: Brandon Borello
First thing first, the easy bit. Even being out of season, Duke is a nailed-on selection to lead the Socceroos line into Qatar. After that, though, it gets very, very interesting.
Quite simply, no eligible striker is playing better than Fornaroli right now. He has scored 12 goals in eight games for Victory across the opening weeks of the A-League Men season and has done so while playing a full 90 minutes across six of those games. He's looking fit and hungry and he desperately wants the opportunity to add to his two previous Socceroos caps. He can hold the ball up and bring teammates into games, he can drop deep to facilitate build-up, he can score from range, he can poach inside the box, and he can score penalties.
Yet at 36, he's also not a long-term contributor to the Socceroos. It also bears noting that his two caps against Japan and Saudi Arabia came during an injury/COVID/unavailability crisis to end all injury/COVID/unavailability crises for Arnold and that he may not see him as fitting his system and/or group dynamic compared to others.
If the coach's rhetoric about form and minutes is genuine, Fornaroli should go to Qatar. He should go because there are injuries and questions elsewhere and he's earned it; alongside the World Cup, the Asian Cup is one you prioritize winning over development. But there exists a narrative that can be spun to justify his non-selection.
At Victory's crosstown rivals, Maclaren has proven no more immune to their struggling start to the season than any other player. He's still scored eight goals across 17 games in all competitions and grabbed a hat trick for the Socceroos against Bangladesh. However, anyone watching him can see that he's out of sorts right now and a bit of a microcosm of City as a whole, not producing at the same lethal and ruthless level of recent years. His stepping back from penalty duty is indicative of that.
For the 30-year-old, this is being exacerbated by an ankle injury amidst a hellacious travel schedule that he has been forced to play through; a malady that won't get worse with more minutes but which is still obviously hampering him. It wouldn't surprise at all for him to be selected but, simultaneously, concerns over bringing yet another injury concern into camp, combined with his below-average form, are working against him.
In Perth, Glory's miserable start has obfuscated that Taggart is having an excellent start to the campaign and is mounting a strong case for a Socceroos recall, with five goals in seven games. The 30-year-old brings excellent off-the-ball and facilitation of his teammates in addition to his goal-scoring form and is a stronger candidate for selection than many may think.
Fresh off his Socceroos debut against Bangladesh, meanwhile, Yengi has been starting regularly for Portsmouth -- playing 90 minutes in two of their last three league games -- and grabbed a goal in their recent 2-0 win over Bolton. The 24-year-old can bully opposition defenders like no other candidate for selection possibility of bringing various profiles of strikers to Qatar means that he must be better placed in Arnold's mind than anyone other than Duke.
With seven goals for the Jets, Stamatelopoulos has had an excellent start to the A-League Men season, only for Fornaroli's even better start to put it in the shade. Robbed of that sense of momentum, he'll likely need to keep performing and target World Cup qualification for a maiden Socceroos call. In Europe, Toure made his debut against England but he's yet to consistently start for Paris FC and is still looking for a league goal from open play.
Joey Lynch's predicted Socceroos squad for the 2024 Asian Cup: Ryan, Gauci, Maynard-Brewer, Miller, Atkinson, Souttar, Rowles, Burgess, Circati, Bos, Behich, Irvine, Baccus, Luongo, Robertson, Metcalfe, Leckie, Goodwin, Boyle, Silvera, Duke, Fornaroli, Yengi