USMNT World Cup qualifying: Gregg Berhalter's squad is strong, but watch out for El Salvador, Canada

The time to exorcise demons -- or try to, at least -- has finally arrived. Exactly 1,423 days after a loss to Trinidad & Tobago prevented the United States men's national team from qualifying for the 2018 FIFA World Cup, qualification for the 2022 competition finally begins. The USA's 14-game path to Qatar begins on Thursday against El Salvador in San Salvador's Estadio Cuscatlan and finishes on March 30 in Costa Rica.

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The first three matches of this rapid-fire schedule take place in September before things resume in October. Here are a few stats and notes to keep in mind as the competition finally begins.

The goal is 24 points

The past six CONCACAF World Cup qualification tournaments all featured six teams playing 10 matches each. While the 2018 qualification run was particularly strange -- not only did the USA fail to qualify but Panama qualified with just 13 points -- the dividing line has typically been around 15-17 points. Earn 17 or more and you qualify without exception. If you get 16 or fewer, you're relying on circumstance to carry you through.

Due to the coronavirus, the format changed this time around, and now eight teams are playing 14 games each. With a couple of weaker teams in the field, there might be a couple of extra easy-win opportunities for the more high-quality countries, and that might alter the math a little. But 1.7 points per game is still a pretty high bar and would almost certainly result in a top-three finish and automatic qualification. Over 14 matches, that projects to about 24 points.

This compressed sprint of a schedule means the U.S. will play eight matches between now and Nov. 16; with 1.7 points per game as the guideline, the bar for this batch is therefore 13-14 points, equivalent to four wins and one or two draws. Of course, the USA's schedule is pretty back-loaded in terms of quality, so perhaps the early bar should be a little bit higher.

World team ratings tend to separate the eight teams in the field into three approximate tiers: Mexico and the United States in Tier 1, a rising Canada and slipping Costa Rica in Tier 2, and El Salvador, Honduras, Jamaica and Panama in some order in Tier 3. This first batch of matches, then, features two Tier 3 road trips (El Salvador and Honduras) and a Tier 2 home game (Canada). October's three-match swing features a Tier 2 home game (Costa Rica), a Tier 3 home game (Jamaica) and another Tier 3 road trip (Panama). Mexico doesn't show up until the seventh match of qualifying (Nov. 12 in Cincinnati), while the USA's first Tier 2 road trip doesn't come until Jan. 30, 2022, at Canada.

It would save everyone some anxiety, then, if Gregg Berhalter's team kept the dropped points to a minimum out of the gate.

A first-choice(ish) lineup

It's incredible to think about the small number of opportunities you get to use your genuine first-choice lineup in international play. In the past two years, Berhalter has been at the helm for 23 matches: 11 friendlies, six Gold Cup matches and six CONCACAF Nations League matches. He got a look at 74 different players in that span, 48 of whom played at least 100 minutes. (Only one, midfielder Sebastian Lletget, played more than 950.)

These matches have come primarily against lesser competition and rarely (if ever) in a genuine road setting, and the U.S. has performed well, winning 18 of 23 with two draws. But the heart of the roster -- the quartet of attacking midfielder Christian Pulisic, winger Giovanni Reyna, midfielders Weston McKennie and Tyler Adams -- played together just once in those 23 matches, in the Nations League victory over Mexico in June.

How the U.S. plays against Mexico does not typically pair up with how it plays as a favorite against a lesser team, but two other matches from this sample could be telling as we figure out what to expect over the next week: the closed-door friendlies against Wales and Panama from last November.

With Pulisic quickly trying to regain his fitness after a positive coronavirus test in August -- he also didn't travel for the El Salvador game, remaining in Nashville to train -- we might not see the core foursome in action all that much over the coming week. But the trio of Reyna-McKennie-Adams should see an extended run, at least, just as it did against Wales and Panama when Pulisic was injured.

Berhalter's possession preferences are clear. When possible, he wants the U.S. to hog the ball, pragmatically build play from the back and apply pressure in certain areas of the pitch. He proved flexible with his tactics this summer -- with a second-choice lineup, the U.S. won the Gold Cup by beating Mexico with the more vertical, counter-attacking approach preferred by American coaches in decades past. But his preferences are obvious, and with his first-choice lineup (or close to it) on the field, we should see the U.S. indeed attempting to hog the ball over these first three matches.

Against Wales, that approach provided about as much sterility as the empty stadium in which they played. The U.S. controlled 61% of the possession and averaged 6.2 passes per possession to Wales' 3.9. It began 19% of their possessions in the attacking third, while Wales began only 3% there. But against a hunkered-down opponent, it generated almost nothing in attack. With as much of the ball as the team could possibly want, the U.S. managed just seven shots at a middling 0.11 xG per shot. Only two of the shots provided any danger whatsoever -- a miss from Konrad De La Fuente in the 33rd minute and a short-range shot from Lletget in the 45th minute that was saved by Danny Ward.

The Americans did effectively limit Wales' counter-attacking potential (just four shots worth a total of 0.34 xG), and having McKennie (90 minutes) and Adams (71) in the midfield makes a significant difference in that regard. While the goalkeeping from each of the first-teamers -- Manchester City's Zack Steffen, the New England Revolution's Matt Turner and Nottingham Forest's Ethan Horvath -- was stellar, the ability to snuff out attacks before they generate shots to begin with is among the most important attributes in the sport. (Steffen also didn't make the trip from Nashville, though Turner's in better form.)

Against a more aggressive opponent, the U.S. thrived. Playing Panama in Austria, it faced a lot more pressure and occasionally struggled with it: Panama began 11% of its possessions in the attacking third. But the U.S. recovered quickly, allowing zero shots in those nine possessions and when it survived bouts of pressure, it created loads of opportunities. The U.S. attempted 15 shots at 0.18 xG per shot and scored six times -- three times off of possessions that it began in the attacking third.

Granted, the most successful creators and attackers in the Panama match -- Caen's Nicholas Gioacchini (two goals on three shots) and PSV Eindhoven's Richie Ledezma (two assists on four chances created) -- did not make the roster for the September qualifiers, but McKennie was an outright wrecking ball. He'll be in uniform.