Premier League scouting: Why identifying similar clubs could be the key to the transfer window

Traditional scouting is gone. During a global pandemic, there are no games for talent identifiers to watch -- outside of Belarus, that is. And whenever games do return, they will presumably be played in empty stadiums, with nowhere for outside employees from potential buyer-clubs to sit.

Of course, certain analytically minded decision-makers across the sports world have been trying to do away with "traditional" scouting for a while. As former Oakland A's general manager Billy Beane told his scouts in Michael Lewis' "Moneyball," "We're not selling jeans here." While Beane was focused on how past production might predict future results, his scouts cared more about what kind of body a player had or how his swing looked. Like any attempt at gut-level prediction, the field of scouting is riddled with psychological biases: scouts tend to stick to whatever their first impression of a player is, and they view new players through the lens of guys they've scouted in the past.

One of the soccer-specific issues with scouting is translation: How will a player perform in a new country, league or tactical system? And how much of a player's performance -- the thing the scout is grading -- is created by those specific circumstances that will fade as soon as he leaves that team?

"When players move teams, they face all sorts of challenges on and off the pitch: a new home, sometimes a new language, new teammates, new boss," said Omar Chaudhuri, head of football intelligence at the consultancy 21st Club. "Being able to minimise the disruption to the things that made him successful in the first place -- that made you want to recruit him -- means you reduce the chance of him not settling in.

"One of those things, clearly, is the playing style he's used to. While each coach is different, there are some consistencies across teams, and ensuring that the player has reasonable experience of how you approach games means that he's more likely to hit the ground running."

While scouts can't travel anymore, they can still watch video of whatever they want. All the final-third tackles completed by Eibar's left-sided centre-back? I'm in. Every failed cut-back pass attempted by an under-23 attacker in Portugal's Primeira Liga? ABSOLUTELY. Vast databases can sort through granular details and spit out the tape in a matter of seconds, and while focusing on scouting similar teams reduces risk in recruitment, it also can provide direction within an endless-seeming trough of tape.

With that in mind, let's take a look at a handful of Premier League clubs and pinpoint their playing-style proxies -- basically, the teams whose styles and tactics match up well enough to make for an easier player transition -- elsewhere in Europe.

Arsenal: Real Betis

The Gunners are currently ninth, while Real Betis sit 12th in Spain, both sides hovering around the middle of their respective tables. Their underlying numbers are strikingly similar, too: Arsenal average 1.44 xG per match compared to Betis's 1.47 xG. Defensively, there isn't much difference either, as Arsenal sit at 1.67 xG allowed and Betis are slightly better at 1.62.

Of course, you don't want to necessarily scout from a team just because they're roughly as good as you, but you do want to scout from a team that plays like you. Both clubs maintain an above-average amount of possession, they move the ball up the field at roughly the same deliberate speed, and their average possessions contain about the same number of passes. They also press their opponents at roughly the average rate and win the ball back at a slightly below-average distance from their own goal.

Therefore, it's reasonable to imagine a top performer in the Betis side slotting comfortably into Mikel Arteta's fledgling system.

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Nabil Fekir is the biggest name with the biggest price tag, but he'll be 27 in July, has a long injury history and hasn't produced the goals and chance-creation he did while with Lyon. Twenty-year-old right-back Emerson is the youngest consistent contributor in the Betis side, but he's still partially owned by Barcelona.

There's no obvious name for the Gunners to go for, but if they move on from Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang or Alexandre Lacazette (or both), perhaps Loren Moron could be an affordable stop-gap option up top. He won't be 27 until December, and he's in the top 10 in La Liga in non-penalty goals+assists per 90 minutes.

Chelsea: Ajax

Is Frank Lampard an accidental visionary?

"It's appropriate that Chelsea have already recruited an Ajax player this season in Hakim Ziyech and have of course played them in the Champions League, given the similarities between the two this season," said AJ Swoboda, managing director of the Americas at 21st Club. "Chelsea aren't quite as proactive out of possession as Ajax, nor as slow and patient in attack, but Ajax's young, attack-minded squad means there are plenty of transfer targets to suit Chelsea's similarly young, attack-minded team."

Chelsea are one of the richest clubs in the world. Ajax are one of the best at producing young talent. Given those two factors, it follows that Chelsea would, at various points in the future, be looking into purchasing Ajax players. The fact that Lampard just so happens to have his team playing a similar, high-flying style to the Dutch giants makes it so those theoretical purchases will all have an easier time fitting in. Galaxy-brain-level genius.

Keeper Andre Onana (24), centre-back Lisandro Martinez (22), and full-back Sergino Dest (19) are all 24 or younger, and all play at positions of need at Stamford Bridge.

Liverpool: Bayer Leverkusen

Leverkusen are the purist's version of Liverpool: even more pressing, even more possession, even more fast breaks and all of it to a significantly worse effect. In some ways, Peter Bosz's side evokes the early Jurgen Klopp years at Anfield, when the team performed at a relatively high level over the course of a season but was incredibly volatile on a game-to-game basis. They give up some of the best shots in Europe (0.15 xG per shot, compared to the European average of 0.12), and they cross the ball a lot -- two hallmarks of the over-aggressive Liverpool sides that often struggled to break down packed-in defenses a couple years ago and would get ripped open on the counter.

However, Liverpool and Leverkusen both rank in the 90th percentile or better among Europe's Big Five leagues in both possession and shots per game from fast breaks. Leverkusen press like maniacs, but Liverpool win the ball higher up the field on average. Leverkusen enter the ball into the box frequently and score a lot of goals, and Liverpool does way more of both of those things.

Essentially, anyone leaving Leverkusen for Liverpool would just be joining a better version of the team they're currently on.

While Kai Havertz has seemingly been linked with every big club, winger Leon Bailey would meet a couple requirements for Klopp and Co. One day, they're going to have to move on from the famed front three of Mo Salah, Sadio Mane and Roberto Firmino, but to do so they'd need a young player who 1.) would be willing to play second fiddle (fourth fiddle?) for a season or two, and 2.) has the potential to one day perform at an elite level. Only 22, Bailey can play multiple positions and though he's struggled with consistency, he's been one of the most electric attackers in the Bundesliga at various points in his still-young career.

Manchester City: Barcelona

Take what I just wrote about Leverkusen and Liverpool, and apply it to these two teams. Both sides are in the 99th percentile for passes per possession and average time per possession, and they're each north of the 90th percentile in possession percentage, pressing rate and passes completed into the penalty area. The main difference: City turns all of that dominance into shots and high-level chances while Barcelona don't. Pep Guardiola's current team take 19.36 shots per match and create 2.71 expected goals, while his former side checks in at 12.74 and 1.86 in those categories.

Of course, compared to the previous example, the difference here is that the better team is the (slightly) smaller club. Plus, unlike Leverkusen, Barcelona don't have many young standouts and they presumably won't be selling the ones they do. But if City really were going to try to prise someone free from the Camp Nou, then maybe one of the young-ish French centre-backs -- Samuel Umtiti (26) or Clement Lenglet (24) -- would be a fit. And, well, if Lionel Messi was ever going to leave Barcelona, there's no place more like home ...