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Rumours rated: Paul Pogba to Man United inches closer, Jese to PSG?

There's a lot of talk and speculation, but when it comes to transfers, how do you separate fact from fiction? David Amoyal looks at some of the current rumours and predicts how likely it is that the proposed moves actually happen.

Paul Pogba to Manchester United: 90 percent

According to multiple reports, it's only a matter of time until Manchester United announces Paul Pogba's return to Old Trafford. Gianluca Di Marzio reported last week that Juventus will receive around €100 million, with United paying the portion owed to agent Mino Raiola, who owns a percentage of the French midfielder's rights.

In the latest unintentional twist in the "Blah Blah Blah" ad campaign (which is likely the reason why an announcement of the deal hasn't been made yet), Pogba told two fans in New York he was staying at Juventus but he certainly could not have announced he was going to United to them before the clubs did. It's also important to remember that Louis van Gaal continuously stated he would coach United next season.

Fabinho to Manchester United: 55 percent
Matteo Darmian back to Serie A: 15 percent

While Man United has signed many of Raiola's top clients this summer (Zlatan Ibrahimovic, Henrikh Mkhitaryan and now Pogba), they can now leverage their relationship with Jorge Mendes to land another reinforcement in defense. Napoli had also been previously linked to Fabinho but Mendes always preferred sending the Brazilian right-back to the Premier League and a deal to United now appears likely.

Fabinho's arrival wouldn't necessarily cause Darmian to leave -- the Italian defender can play on both sides of the pitch and United intend to keep him short of a big bid, which appears to be a long shot. Juventus is set at Darmian's position and while Napoli and Roma could use him, they likely wouldn't be willing to spend significantly to acquire him.

Shkodran Mustafi to Arsenal: 40 percent

Arsene Wenger publicly revealed that he was on the lookout for a defender following the news that club captain Per Mertesacker would be ruled out for several months with a serious knee injury. The replacement could well be German centre-back Mustafi, who has been pushing to leave Valencia since the transfer window opened. The player has a release clause of around £42m but as reported by Sky Germany, a deal could be wrapped up for around £25m and a further £8.4m in add-ons.

Mauro Icardi to Arsenal: 10 percent

The difficulties in completing a deal with Lyon for Alexandre Lacazette have re-energized the rumors linking Icardi to Arsenal. But the Argentine striker will likely sign a new contract with Inter after his agent was able to leverage a substantial offer from Napoli to get him another raise on top of the one he received last summer.

Jese Rodriguez to Paris Saint-Germain: 75 percent

In the past few days both Zidane and Emery confirmed the rumors of a negotiation to bring Jese to the French capital, which is hardly surprising given that the striker has just one year left on his deal with Real Madrid and there are even less opportunities for him now that Alvaro Morata is back at the Bernabeu. While at first the two clubs weren't able to agree to a buy-back clause for Real, the deal is expected to be reached for around €25m.

Gabriel Barbosa to Barcelona: 30 percent

"Gabigol" is being chased by the Blaugrana and Chelsea but if that wasn't enough, both sides of the Derby d'Italia, Inter and Juventus, are also in the race. While the outcome is unpredictable, the idea of moving to Barcelona and joining up with childhood hero Neymar could play a big role in the decision-making process.

While Barca is ready to put a significant bid on the table and start negotiating, Inter is taking concrete steps to convince the player to join them and can offer him significant playing time. Given that Di Marzio has reported how Gabigol doesn't want to be loaned to a third team and wants to be a big part of his next team, this may be a significant advantage.

Felipe Anderson to Chelsea: 15 percent

Could one Brazilian replace another, Oscar, at Stamford Bridge? The Lazio winger was a hot name in the past two transfer windows, but his disappointing season has hurt his value, which last season was considered to be as high as €50m. Odds are Felipe Anderson will stay put since his Serie A side is almost certain to lose players at his position: Antonio Candreva is set to join Inter, while Keita Balde Diao has held out from a few preseason games to push for a move.

Oscar to Inter: 30 percent

The recent rumors about Icardi have added fresh life to Inter's efforts in the transfer market. In addition to joining Juve in the Gabigol race, they have made an inquiry with Chelsea for Oscar, a player who doesn't seem like a natural fit in Conte's tactics. (These two targets are mutually exclusive as Inter has just one non EU slot available.)

Chelsea is open to the potential move but the terms of the deal would have to take into account the fact that Inter are being audited for Financial Fair Play. Should Chelsea be open to a deal similar to the one that brought Stevan Jovetic to Inter last summer (a two-year loan with option to buy), the odds would go considerably up.

Nemanja Matic to Juventus: 20 percent
Axel Witsel to Juventus: 45 percent

Juventus have already signed Miralem Pjanic this summer but they need another midfielder to help offset Pogba's departure as well as the injury concerns surrounding Sami Khedira and Claudio Marchisio. While Matic remains Juve's top choice, it won't be easy to convince Conte to let him go.

Witsel is a more realistic option considering his contract expires in 2017. While Juve's current bid is lower than Everton's, the Belgian midfielder reportedly prefers to join the bianconeri and the short amount of time left on his deal gives him leverage. Zenit coach Mircea Lucescu confirmed that Witsel didn't want to play against Lokomotiv over the weekend since he feared getting injured.

Mattia De Sciglio to Liverpool: 20 percent

Milan has pressing needs at center-back as well in midfield but can't make incoming moves until they cash in on one of their remaining assets. With the delays in moving Carlos Bacca (who now has likely one less suitor with Jonathan Calleri joining West Ham), they could sacrifice De Sciglio, who is coming off an excellent showing at Euro 2016.

Liverpool have been linked to De Sciglio by the English press and he would certainly fit a need for Jurgen Klopp at left-back.Milan has depth at full-back position after signing Leonel Vangioni but it would take a substantial bid to justify selling a promising 23-year-old defender. Chelsea could also make a late push for the Italian.